Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.889064199018668 |
beta | 0.0183305015082431 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.52 | 0.519684759758987 | 0.000315240241012704 |
14 | 0.52 | 0.520002213034651 | -2.21303465086642e-06 |
15 | 0.52 | 0.520037393902251 | -3.73939022513259e-05 |
16 | 0.52 | 0.520040687311828 | -4.06873118280471e-05 |
17 | 0.52 | 0.520040389588036 | -4.03895880358718e-05 |
18 | 0.52 | 0.52003969833099 | -3.96983309896015e-05 |
19 | 0.52 | 0.520873708189141 | -0.000873708189140787 |
20 | 0.52 | 0.519283791574066 | 0.00071620842593445 |
21 | 0.52 | 0.519952573607014 | 4.74263929857166e-05 |
22 | 0.52 | 0.520027538385099 | -2.75383850988353e-05 |
23 | 0.52 | 0.520035405869942 | -3.54058699416626e-05 |
24 | 0.52 | 0.520035701646473 | -3.57016464725968e-05 |
25 | 0.52 | 0.5200701287742 | -7.01287742002066e-05 |
26 | 0.54 | 0.520002611561089 | 0.0199973884389109 |
27 | 0.54 | 0.538133481286054 | 0.00186651871394616 |
28 | 0.54 | 0.540178919195004 | -0.000178919195004124 |
29 | 0.54 | 0.540403329227296 | -0.000403329227296134 |
30 | 0.54 | 0.540421696677103 | -0.000421696677103345 |
31 | 0.54 | 0.541187934303031 | -0.00118793430303077 |
32 | 0.54 | 0.539799855540949 | 0.000200144459051033 |
33 | 0.54 | 0.540254690431516 | -0.000254690431516047 |
34 | 0.54 | 0.540369398102247 | -0.000369398102246787 |
35 | 0.54 | 0.540383832753763 | -0.000383832753763413 |
36 | 0.54 | 0.540380051072239 | -0.000380051072239374 |
37 | 0.59 | 0.540405846936425 | 0.0495941530635746 |
38 | 0.59 | 0.588022610598701 | 0.0019773894012991 |
39 | 0.59 | 0.588750640934717 | 0.00124935906528345 |
40 | 0.59 | 0.590805030339783 | -0.000805030339783075 |
41 | 0.59 | 0.591240866845476 | -0.00124086684547653 |
42 | 0.59 | 0.591294015139482 | -0.0012940151394818 |
43 | 0.59 | 0.592031509737675 | -0.00203150973767507 |
44 | 0.59 | 0.590752168785618 | -0.000752168785618013 |
45 | 0.59 | 0.591036271238599 | -0.00103627123859906 |
46 | 0.59 | 0.591166833799343 | -0.00116683379934324 |
47 | 0.59 | 0.59118289919295 | -0.00118289919295023 |
48 | 0.59 | 0.591168565977269 | -0.00116856597726889 |
49 | 0.59 | 0.596794208324373 | -0.00679420832437305 |
50 | 0.59 | 0.588759060505194 | 0.00124093949480553 |
51 | 0.59 | 0.588508506767825 | 0.00149149323217501 |
52 | 0.59 | 0.59031108333814 | -0.000311083338139562 |
53 | 0.59 | 0.590906330741196 | -0.000906330741196282 |
54 | 0.59 | 0.591025048055674 | -0.00102504805567394 |
55 | 0.59 | 0.591697746268691 | -0.00169774626869135 |
56 | 0.59 | 0.590640870087644 | -0.000640870087644241 |
57 | 0.59 | 0.590778117740912 | -0.000778117740912299 |
58 | 0.59 | 0.590913606185844 | -0.000913606185844351 |
59 | 0.59 | 0.590947042573504 | -0.000947042573503531 |
60 | 0.59 | 0.59094185426291 | -0.000941854262910158 |
61 | 0.61 | 0.595938252088283 | 0.0140617479117169 |
62 | 0.61 | 0.607412874130066 | 0.00258712586993415 |
63 | 0.61 | 0.608471911925517 | 0.00152808807448324 |
64 | 0.61 | 0.610245411519833 | -0.00024541151983315 |
65 | 0.61 | 0.610990193358239 | -0.000990193358238689 |
66 | 0.61 | 0.61118103122428 | -0.00118103122427993 |
67 | 0.61 | 0.611818515104256 | -0.00181851510425601 |
68 | 0.61 | 0.610916831134177 | -0.000916831134177065 |
69 | 0.61 | 0.610938820604547 | -0.000938820604546642 |
70 | 0.61 | 0.611063582644432 | -0.00106358264443152 |
71 | 0.61 | 0.611106211207142 | -0.00110621120714205 |
72 | 0.61 | 0.61110410189388 | -0.00110410189387966 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.617958036776482 | 0.603733198186384 | 0.63218287536658 |
74 | 0.615526825524589 | 0.596385610592899 | 0.634668040456278 |
75 | 0.614017766478093 | 0.590876631965697 | 0.637158900990488 |
76 | 0.61407743785893 | 0.587396641007604 | 0.640758234710257 |
77 | 0.614807541422002 | 0.584884644609282 | 0.644730438234722 |
78 | 0.615724579202436 | 0.582775903042454 | 0.648673255362418 |
79 | 0.617232637469534 | 0.581394936703731 | 0.653070338235337 |
80 | 0.617961292163396 | 0.579402186487034 | 0.656520397839758 |
81 | 0.618724631436628 | 0.577543143124456 | 0.6599061197488 |
82 | 0.619615717712136 | 0.575885446738675 | 0.663345988685597 |
83 | 0.620562789880251 | 0.574346712781917 | 0.666778866978585 |
84 | 0.621526270708134 | -14.1638471466815 | 15.4068996880978 |