Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.125332141259147 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 39.55 | 39.44 | 0.109999999999999 |
4 | 39.64 | 39.6437865355385 | -0.00378653553850228 |
5 | 39.8 | 39.7333119609315 | 0.0666880390684881 |
6 | 39.79 | 39.9016701156643 | -0.111670115664339 |
7 | 39.79 | 39.8776742609535 | -0.0876742609534702 |
8 | 39.86 | 39.8666858580949 | -0.00668585809485478 |
9 | 39.91 | 39.9358479051837 | -0.0258479051836744 |
10 | 40 | 39.9826083318799 | 0.0173916681200623 |
11 | 40.01 | 40.0747880668855 | -0.0647880668854981 |
12 | 40.01 | 40.0766680397347 | -0.0666680397346937 |
13 | 40.01 | 40.0683123915612 | -0.0583123915611949 |
14 | 39.96 | 40.0610039746649 | -0.101003974664884 |
15 | 40 | 39.9983449302445 | 0.00165506975554308 |
16 | 39.76 | 40.0385523636809 | -0.278552363680852 |
17 | 39.68 | 39.7636407994879 | -0.0836407994879309 |
18 | 39.7 | 39.6731579189915 | 0.0268420810085175 |
19 | 39.7 | 39.6965220944801 | 0.00347790551986549 |
20 | 39.73 | 39.696957987826 | 0.0330420121739579 |
21 | 39.64 | 39.7310992139633 | -0.0910992139633038 |
22 | 39.56 | 39.6296815544103 | -0.0696815544102591 |
23 | 39.67 | 39.5409482159898 | 0.129051784010244 |
24 | 39.66 | 39.6671225524131 | -0.00712255241307957 |
25 | 39.66 | 39.6562298676679 | 0.00377013233208601 |
26 | 40.05 | 39.6567023864259 | 0.393297613574077 |
27 | 39.99 | 40.0959952184873 | -0.105995218487273 |
28 | 40.06 | 40.022710610791 | 0.037289389208965 |
29 | 40.08 | 40.0973841697868 | -0.017384169786844 |
30 | 40.1 | 40.1152053745634 | -0.0152053745634362 |
31 | 40.1 | 40.1332996524108 | -0.0332996524107614 |
32 | 40.12 | 40.1291261356709 | -0.00912613567093956 |
33 | 40.07 | 40.1479823375459 | -0.077982337545869 |
34 | 40.24 | 40.0882086442009 | 0.151791355799148 |
35 | 40.58 | 40.2772329798478 | 0.302767020152203 |
36 | 40.72 | 40.6551794187861 | 0.0648205812138798 |
37 | 40.72 | 40.8033035210273 | -0.0833035210273181 |
38 | 40.89 | 40.7928629123625 | 0.0971370876374635 |
39 | 40.9 | 40.9750373115518 | -0.0750373115518173 |
40 | 41.04 | 40.9756327246207 | 0.0643672753793041 |
41 | 41.27 | 41.123700013071 | 0.146299986929002 |
42 | 41.29 | 41.372036103699 | -0.0820361036990036 |
43 | 41.29 | 41.3817543431618 | -0.0917543431618455 |
44 | 41.33 | 41.3702545748635 | -0.0402545748635461 |
45 | 41.34 | 41.4052093828004 | -0.0652093828004183 |
46 | 41.37 | 41.4070365512239 | -0.0370365512238635 |
47 | 41.33 | 41.4323946809541 | -0.102394680954113 |
48 | 41.37 | 41.3795613363366 | -0.00956133633658851 |
49 | 41.37 | 41.4183629935802 | -0.048362993580227 |
50 | 41.42 | 41.4123015560371 | 0.00769844396288732 |
51 | 41.61 | 41.4632664185034 | 0.146733581496648 |
52 | 41.58 | 41.6716568524669 | -0.0916568524669472 |
53 | 41.75 | 41.6301693028862 | 0.119830697113812 |
54 | 41.75 | 41.815187940744 | -0.065187940744039 |
55 | 41.75 | 41.8070177965463 | -0.0570177965463117 |
56 | 41.85 | 41.7998716340153 | 0.0501283659847118 |
57 | 41.84 | 41.906154329462 | -0.0661543294619733 |
58 | 41.97 | 41.8878630656969 | 0.0821369343030511 |
59 | 42.01 | 42.0281574635496 | -0.0181574635496062 |
60 | 42.04 | 42.0658817497631 | -0.0258817497630943 |
61 | 42.04 | 42.0926379346458 | -0.0526379346457588 |
62 | 42.06 | 42.0860407095851 | -0.0260407095851392 |
63 | 41.93 | 42.1027769716929 | -0.172776971692933 |
64 | 41.93 | 41.9511224638704 | -0.021122463870384 |
65 | 41.99 | 41.9484751402448 | 0.0415248597551638 |
66 | 42.03 | 42.0136795398334 | 0.0163204601665612 |
67 | 42.03 | 42.0557250180524 | -0.025725018052448 |
68 | 42.12 | 42.052500846456 | 0.0674991535439915 |
69 | 42.22 | 42.1509606599029 | 0.0690393400971487 |
70 | 42.21 | 42.2596135082283 | -0.0496135082283473 |
71 | 42.23 | 42.2433953410067 | -0.0133953410067136 |
72 | 42.22 | 42.2617164742354 | -0.041716474235443 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 42.2464880591937 | 42.0537660610706 | 42.4392100573169 |
74 | 42.2729761183875 | 41.9828432519306 | 42.5631089848443 |
75 | 42.2994641775812 | 41.92227352084 | 42.6766548343224 |
76 | 42.3259522367749 | 41.8648711601919 | 42.787033313358 |
77 | 42.3524402959687 | 41.8080940460798 | 42.8967865458575 |
78 | 42.3789283551624 | 41.7507636554958 | 43.007093054829 |
79 | 42.4054164143561 | 41.6922567083858 | 43.1185761203264 |
80 | 42.4319044735499 | 41.6322187069361 | 43.2315902401636 |
81 | 42.4583925327436 | 41.5704401557315 | 43.3463449097557 |
82 | 42.4848805919373 | 41.5067957702633 | 43.4629654136113 |
83 | 42.5113686511311 | 41.4412118095481 | 43.5815254927141 |
84 | 42.5378567103248 | 41.3736473124697 | 43.7020661081799 |