Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999926608669377 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 85.65 | 85.3 | 0.350000000000009 |
3 | 85.15 | 85.6499743130343 | -0.499974313034286 |
4 | 84.94 | 85.1500366937801 | -0.210036693780125 |
5 | 85.15 | 84.9400154148724 | 0.209984585127572 |
6 | 85.15 | 85.1499845889519 | 1.54110481105363e-05 |
7 | 85.15 | 85.149999998869 | 1.13104192678293e-09 |
8 | 85.14 | 85.1499999999999 | -0.00999999999991985 |
9 | 85.37 | 85.1400007339133 | 0.229999266086693 |
10 | 85.61 | 85.3699831200478 | 0.240016879952179 |
11 | 85.59 | 85.6099823848418 | -0.0199823848418106 |
12 | 85.54 | 85.5900014665338 | -0.0500014665338142 |
13 | 85.54 | 85.5400036696742 | -3.66967415743602e-06 |
14 | 85.5 | 85.5400000002693 | -0.0400000002693304 |
15 | 85.78 | 85.5000029356532 | 0.279997064346759 |
16 | 86.16 | 85.7799794506429 | 0.380020549357113 |
17 | 86.38 | 86.1599721097862 | 0.220027890213785 |
18 | 86.49 | 86.3799838518604 | 0.110016148139636 |
19 | 86.49 | 86.4899919257685 | 8.07423150206432e-06 |
20 | 86 | 86.4899999994074 | -0.489999999407416 |
21 | 85.9 | 86.000035961752 | -0.100035961751956 |
22 | 85.66 | 85.9000073417724 | -0.240007341772355 |
23 | 85.64 | 85.6600176144582 | -0.020017614458169 |
24 | 85.6 | 85.6400014691194 | -0.0400014691193604 |
25 | 85.6 | 85.600002935761 | -2.93576104581916e-06 |
26 | 85.57 | 85.6000000002155 | -0.0300000002154661 |
27 | 85.81 | 85.5700022017399 | 0.239997798260077 |
28 | 86.29 | 85.8099823862422 | 0.480017613757767 |
29 | 86.37 | 86.2899647708686 | 0.080035229131397 |
30 | 86.41 | 86.369994126108 | 0.0400058738919569 |
31 | 86.41 | 86.4099970639157 | 2.93608431434222e-06 |
32 | 86.38 | 86.4099999997845 | -0.0299999997845219 |
33 | 86.62 | 86.3800022017399 | 0.239997798260106 |
34 | 87.08 | 86.6199823862422 | 0.460017613757756 |
35 | 87.19 | 87.0799662386952 | 0.110033761304777 |
36 | 87.21 | 87.1899919244758 | 0.0200080755241459 |
37 | 87.21 | 87.2099985315807 | 1.46841928483354e-06 |
38 | 87.24 | 87.2099999998922 | 0.0300000001077763 |
39 | 87.16 | 87.2399977982601 | -0.0799977982600666 |
40 | 87.05 | 87.1600058711449 | -0.110005871144864 |
41 | 87.04 | 87.0500080734773 | -0.0100080734772519 |
42 | 86.98 | 87.0400007345058 | -0.0600007345058344 |
43 | 86.98 | 86.9800044035337 | -4.40353373676317e-06 |
44 | 86.94 | 86.9800000003232 | -0.0400000003231895 |
45 | 86.96 | 86.9400029356532 | 0.0199970643467537 |
46 | 86.98 | 86.9599985323888 | 0.0200014676111664 |
47 | 86.86 | 86.9799985320657 | -0.119998532065679 |
48 | 86.82 | 86.8600088068519 | -0.0400088068519437 |
49 | 86.82 | 86.8200029362996 | -2.9362995661586e-06 |
50 | 86.84 | 86.8200000002155 | 0.0199999997845168 |
51 | 86.91 | 86.8399985321734 | 0.0700014678265859 |
52 | 86.85 | 86.9099948624991 | -0.0599948624991384 |
53 | 86.61 | 86.8500044031028 | -0.240004403102787 |
54 | 86.65 | 86.6100176142425 | 0.0399823857575115 |
55 | 86.65 | 86.6499970656395 | 2.93436049503271e-06 |
56 | 86.36 | 86.6499999997847 | -0.289999999784655 |
57 | 86.33 | 86.3600212834859 | -0.0300212834858655 |
58 | 86.43 | 86.3300022033019 | 0.0999977966980623 |
59 | 86.36 | 86.4299926610286 | -0.0699926610286496 |
60 | 86.29 | 86.3600051368545 | -0.0700051368545189 |
61 | 86.29 | 86.2900051377702 | -5.13777014532479e-06 |
62 | 86.44 | 86.2900000003771 | 0.149999999622921 |
63 | 86.51 | 86.4399889913004 | 0.0700110086995664 |
64 | 86.72 | 86.5099948617989 | 0.210005138201083 |
65 | 86.93 | 86.7199845874435 | 0.210015412556544 |
66 | 86.79 | 86.9299845866894 | -0.139984586689422 |
67 | 86.79 | 86.7900102736551 | -1.02736550786631e-05 |
68 | 86.8 | 86.790000000754 | 0.00999999924599138 |
69 | 86.41 | 86.7999992660867 | -0.389999266086747 |
70 | 86.26 | 86.4100286225651 | -0.150028622565074 |
71 | 86.19 | 86.2600110108002 | -0.0700110108002434 |
72 | 86.28 | 86.1900051382012 | 0.0899948617987576 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.9268760965936 | 86.6331106937211 |
74 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.7806284472851 | 86.7793583430296 |
75 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.668406217576 | 86.8915805727386 |
76 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.5737976712958 | 86.9861891190189 |
77 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.4904454706976 | 87.0695413196171 |
78 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.4150890943025 | 87.1448976960122 |
79 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.3457916106077 | 87.2141951797069 |
80 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.2812909875934 | 87.2786958027213 |
81 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.2207106078467 | 87.339276182468 |
82 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.1634122077325 | 87.3965745825822 |
83 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.1089139474983 | 87.4510728428164 |
84 | 86.2799933951573 | 85.0568414841717 | 87.503145306143 |