Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
3 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
4 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
5 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
6 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
7 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
8 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
9 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
10 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
11 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
12 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
13 | 109.86 | 109.77 | 0.0900000000000034 |
14 | 110.12 | 109.859994050373 | 0.260005949626532 |
15 | 110.5 | 110.119982811797 | 0.380017188203254 |
16 | 113.73 | 110.499974878218 | 3.23002512178158 |
17 | 119.84 | 113.729786472854 | 6.11021352714589 |
18 | 119.83 | 119.839596072351 | -0.00959607235051863 |
19 | 113.06 | 119.830000634367 | -6.77000063436718 |
20 | 112.45 | 113.06044754417 | -0.610447544170285 |
21 | 110.07 | 112.450040354832 | -2.38004035483222 |
22 | 110.09 | 110.070157337236 | 0.0198426627642618 |
23 | 110.72 | 110.089998688262 | 0.630001311738141 |
24 | 109.9 | 110.719958352528 | -0.819958352527621 |
25 | 109.9 | 109.900054204955 | -5.42049551199852e-05 |
26 | 110.06 | 109.900000003583 | 0.159999996416673 |
27 | 110.52 | 110.059989422886 | 0.460010577113579 |
28 | 116.16 | 110.519969590099 | 5.64003040990144 |
29 | 118.54 | 116.159627154728 | 2.38037284527235 |
30 | 118.77 | 118.539842640784 | 0.230157359215681 |
31 | 113.71 | 118.769984784996 | -5.05998478499635 |
32 | 106.98 | 113.710334500219 | -6.73033450021862 |
33 | 106.98 | 106.980444921963 | -0.000444921962696299 |
34 | 106.98 | 106.980000029412 | -2.9412433377729e-08 |
35 | 106.98 | 106.980000000002 | -1.94688709598267e-12 |
36 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
37 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
38 | 107.43 | 106.98 | 0.450000000000003 |
39 | 107.93 | 107.429970251867 | 0.500029748132604 |
40 | 111.99 | 107.929966944553 | 4.06003305544722 |
41 | 115.4 | 111.989731603552 | 3.41026839644829 |
42 | 115.53 | 115.399774557519 | 0.130225442481077 |
43 | 115.22 | 115.529991391192 | -0.309991391191716 |
44 | 102.75 | 115.220020492589 | -12.4700204925889 |
45 | 102.75 | 102.750824355163 | -0.000824355162762913 |
46 | 102.75 | 102.750000054496 | -5.44956151316001e-08 |
47 | 102.75 | 102.750000000004 | -3.60955709766131e-12 |
48 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
49 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
50 | 102.87 | 102.75 | 0.120000000000005 |
51 | 103.13 | 102.869992067165 | 0.26000793283535 |
52 | 108.52 | 103.129982811666 | 5.39001718833437 |
53 | 111.6 | 108.519643682342 | 3.08035631765796 |
54 | 111.32 | 111.599796367004 | -0.279796367003954 |
55 | 108.77 | 111.320018496488 | -2.55001849648762 |
56 | 100.05 | 108.770168573974 | -8.72016857397419 |
57 | 100.05 | 100.050576463847 | -0.000576463846897468 |
58 | 100.05 | 100.050000038108 | -3.81082685407819e-08 |
59 | 100.05 | 100.050000000003 | -2.51532128459075e-12 |
60 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
61 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
62 | 100.07 | 100.05 | 0.019999999999996 |
63 | 100.07 | 100.069998677861 | 1.322139226545e-06 |
64 | 109.26 | 100.069999999913 | 9.19000000008741 |
65 | 110 | 109.259392477025 | 0.740607522974827 |
66 | 110 | 109.999951040687 | 4.89593128918386e-05 |
67 | 109.26 | 109.999999996763 | -0.739999996763444 |
68 | 99.42 | 109.260048919151 | -9.84004891915119 |
69 | 99.42 | 99.4206504957336 | -0.00065049573359488 |
70 | 99.42 | 99.4200000430023 | -4.30023021635861e-08 |
71 | 99.42 | 99.4200000000028 | -2.8421709430404e-12 |
72 | 99.42 | 99.42 | 0 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 99.42 | 93.2402674482379 | 105.599732551762 |
74 | 99.42 | 90.6808272783099 | 108.15917272169 |
75 | 99.42 | 88.7168609600849 | 110.123139039915 |
76 | 99.42 | 87.0611476764233 | 111.778852323577 |
77 | 99.42 | 85.602428715429 | 113.237571284571 |
78 | 99.42 | 84.2836423914991 | 114.556357608501 |
79 | 99.42 | 83.0708909386277 | 115.769109061372 |
80 | 99.42 | 81.9420878664278 | 116.897912133572 |
81 | 99.42 | 80.8818917362884 | 117.958108263712 |
82 | 99.42 | 79.8791324797153 | 118.960867520285 |
83 | 99.42 | 78.9253775615763 | 119.914622438424 |
84 | 99.42 | 78.0140757185829 | 120.825924281417 |