Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
4 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
5 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
6 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
7 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
8 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
9 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
10 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
11 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
12 | 109.77 | 109.77 | 0 |
13 | 109.86 | 109.77 | 0.0900000000000034 |
14 | 110.12 | 109.86 | 0.260000000000005 |
15 | 110.5 | 110.12 | 0.379999999999995 |
16 | 113.73 | 110.5 | 3.23 |
17 | 119.84 | 113.73 | 6.11 |
18 | 119.83 | 119.84 | -0.0100000000000051 |
19 | 113.06 | 119.83 | -6.77 |
20 | 112.45 | 113.06 | -0.609999999999999 |
21 | 110.07 | 112.45 | -2.38000000000001 |
22 | 110.09 | 110.07 | 0.0200000000000102 |
23 | 110.72 | 110.09 | 0.629999999999995 |
24 | 109.9 | 110.72 | -0.819999999999993 |
25 | 109.9 | 109.9 | 0 |
26 | 110.06 | 109.9 | 0.159999999999997 |
27 | 110.52 | 110.06 | 0.459999999999994 |
28 | 116.16 | 110.52 | 5.64 |
29 | 118.54 | 116.16 | 2.38000000000001 |
30 | 118.77 | 118.54 | 0.22999999999999 |
31 | 113.71 | 118.77 | -5.06 |
32 | 106.98 | 113.71 | -6.72999999999999 |
33 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
34 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
35 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
36 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
37 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
38 | 107.43 | 106.98 | 0.450000000000003 |
39 | 107.93 | 107.43 | 0.5 |
40 | 111.99 | 107.93 | 4.05999999999999 |
41 | 115.4 | 111.99 | 3.41000000000001 |
42 | 115.53 | 115.4 | 0.129999999999995 |
43 | 115.22 | 115.53 | -0.310000000000002 |
44 | 102.75 | 115.22 | -12.47 |
45 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
46 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
47 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
48 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
49 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
50 | 102.87 | 102.75 | 0.120000000000005 |
51 | 103.13 | 102.87 | 0.259999999999991 |
52 | 108.52 | 103.13 | 5.39 |
53 | 111.6 | 108.52 | 3.08 |
54 | 111.32 | 111.6 | -0.280000000000001 |
55 | 108.77 | 111.32 | -2.55 |
56 | 100.05 | 108.77 | -8.72 |
57 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
58 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
59 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
60 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
61 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
62 | 100.07 | 100.05 | 0.019999999999996 |
63 | 100.07 | 100.07 | 0 |
64 | 109.26 | 100.07 | 9.19000000000001 |
65 | 110 | 109.26 | 0.739999999999995 |
66 | 110 | 110 | 0 |
67 | 109.26 | 110 | -0.739999999999995 |
68 | 99.42 | 109.26 | -9.84 |
69 | 99.42 | 99.42 | 0 |
70 | 99.42 | 99.42 | 0 |
71 | 99.42 | 99.42 | 0 |
72 | 99.42 | 99.42 | 0 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 99.42 | 93.1958322018688 | 105.644167798131 |
74 | 99.42 | 90.6176974853969 | 108.222302514603 |
75 | 99.42 | 88.6394251388026 | 110.200574861197 |
76 | 99.42 | 86.9716644037375 | 111.868335596262 |
77 | 99.42 | 85.5023377000134 | 113.337662299987 |
78 | 99.42 | 84.1739648211162 | 114.666035178884 |
79 | 99.42 | 82.9523998878083 | 115.887600112192 |
80 | 99.42 | 81.8153949707939 | 117.024605029206 |
81 | 99.42 | 80.7474966056063 | 118.092503394394 |
82 | 99.42 | 79.7374532188302 | 119.10254678117 |
83 | 99.42 | 78.7767707813862 | 120.063229218614 |
84 | 99.42 | 77.8588502776052 | 120.981149722395 |