| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.444066410335853 |
| beta | 0.0444273937826881 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 147.56 | 127.11 | 20.45 |
| 4 | 120.03 | 139.014610277896 | -18.9846102778963 |
| 5 | 136.01 | 133.033092793833 | 2.97690720616686 |
| 6 | 138.16 | 136.862678093171 | 1.29732190682932 |
| 7 | 122.87 | 139.972010469707 | -17.1020104697072 |
| 8 | 112.22 | 134.573416704191 | -22.3534167041905 |
| 9 | 137.35 | 126.401845673979 | 10.9481543260214 |
| 10 | 139.08 | 133.234376747315 | 5.84562325268507 |
| 11 | 139.64 | 137.916371788369 | 1.72362821163091 |
| 12 | 121.12 | 140.801932254905 | -19.6819322549046 |
| 13 | 132.37 | 133.793703125631 | -1.42370312563148 |
| 14 | 130.69 | 134.865252434126 | -4.17525243412609 |
| 15 | 149.41 | 134.632558760201 | 14.7774412397993 |
| 16 | 130.72 | 143.107659633448 | -12.3876596334477 |
| 17 | 139.14 | 139.275259090411 | -0.135259090411182 |
| 18 | 146.55 | 140.881069586705 | 5.66893041329504 |
| 19 | 137.35 | 145.176166383534 | -7.82616638353352 |
| 20 | 122.73 | 143.324143796016 | -20.5941437960156 |
| 21 | 138.97 | 135.395995353537 | 3.57400464646292 |
| 22 | 154.73 | 138.270620347297 | 16.4593796527029 |
| 23 | 143.4 | 147.191929947806 | -3.7919299478057 |
| 24 | 123.88 | 147.045503290707 | -23.1655032907072 |
| 25 | 140.25 | 137.838897891493 | 2.41110210850684 |
| 26 | 142.39 | 140.037571782667 | 2.35242821733345 |
| 27 | 143.81 | 142.256600951412 | 1.55339904858783 |
| 28 | 153.58 | 144.151454669875 | 9.42854533012536 |
| 29 | 144.71 | 149.729409395893 | -5.01940939589269 |
| 30 | 153.84 | 148.792486241238 | 5.04751375876177 |
| 31 | 151.3 | 152.42552646671 | -1.12552646670966 |
| 32 | 121.92 | 153.295121689449 | -31.3751216894491 |
| 33 | 153.05 | 140.112896967651 | 12.9371030323487 |
| 34 | 149.29 | 146.863475208427 | 2.42652479157337 |
| 35 | 118.81 | 148.994530911141 | -30.1845309111408 |
| 36 | 109.19 | 136.048610214922 | -26.8586102149217 |
| 37 | 103.68 | 124.049733363368 | -20.3697333633678 |
| 38 | 106.94 | 114.530480133327 | -7.59048013332675 |
| 39 | 114.43 | 110.536313605733 | 3.89368639426732 |
| 40 | 107.87 | 111.718697106212 | -3.8486971062121 |
| 41 | 103.14 | 109.387018316489 | -6.24701831648909 |
| 42 | 117.02 | 105.86708000288 | 11.1529199971203 |
| 43 | 112.44 | 110.293902597092 | 2.14609740290798 |
| 44 | 95.85 | 110.763437553688 | -14.9134375536885 |
| 45 | 123.86 | 103.363183126629 | 20.4968168733708 |
| 46 | 121.83 | 112.091809095273 | 9.73819090472728 |
| 47 | 121.95 | 116.235012626077 | 5.71498737392294 |
| 48 | 120.34 | 118.704395954192 | 1.63560404580785 |
| 49 | 113.32 | 119.394530534663 | -6.07453053466276 |
| 50 | 117.31 | 116.541010657563 | 0.76898934243728 |
| 51 | 141.69 | 116.741639256599 | 24.9483607434009 |
| 52 | 130.35 | 128.171713573693 | 2.17828642630718 |
| 53 | 127.28 | 129.533337514055 | -2.25333751405537 |
| 54 | 148.1 | 128.88257066953 | 19.2174293304699 |
| 55 | 131.21 | 138.145385338006 | -6.93538533800569 |
| 56 | 120.37 | 135.657787247669 | -15.2877872476689 |
| 57 | 146.91 | 129.159559652367 | 17.7504403476334 |
| 58 | 144.04 | 137.68269253734 | 6.35730746266029 |
| 59 | 141.77 | 141.271939295752 | 0.498060704247848 |
| 60 | 132.15 | 142.269117475713 | -10.1191174757134 |
| 61 | 142.04 | 138.351926286102 | 3.68807371389818 |
| 62 | 149.77 | 140.63880587373 | 9.13119412626978 |
| 63 | 172.31 | 145.522939114706 | 26.7870608852939 |
| 64 | 150.24 | 158.775923972487 | -8.53592397248698 |
| 65 | 163.23 | 156.174754945512 | 7.05524505448761 |
| 66 | 155.92 | 160.636291288069 | -4.71629128806947 |
| 67 | 146.96 | 159.777437384293 | -12.817437384293 |
| 68 | 134.51 | 155.068265066851 | -20.5582650668512 |
| 69 | 152.83 | 146.516063070397 | 6.31393692960259 |
| 70 | 150.54 | 150.021469203666 | 0.518530796333863 |
| 71 | 150.98 | 150.963560084302 | 0.0164399156976458 |
| 72 | 138.82 | 151.683013608295 | -12.8630136082952 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 146.429363731436 | 120.965259028319 | 171.893468434554 |
| 74 | 146.887746133715 | 118.818194267186 | 174.957298000243 |
| 75 | 147.346128535993 | 116.694906083037 | 177.997350988948 |
| 76 | 147.804510938271 | 114.582252206165 | 181.026769670376 |
| 77 | 148.262893340549 | 112.470888458063 | 184.054898223035 |
| 78 | 148.721275742827 | 110.353977011896 | 187.088574473758 |
| 79 | 149.179658145105 | 108.226401500758 | 190.132914789453 |
| 80 | 149.638040547383 | 106.084266584282 | 193.191814510484 |
| 81 | 150.096422949661 | 103.924566140834 | 196.268279758488 |
| 82 | 150.554805351939 | 101.744956004408 | 199.36465469947 |
| 83 | 151.013187754218 | 99.5435939904863 | 202.482781517949 |
| 84 | 151.471570156496 | 97.3190246289546 | 205.624115684037 |
