Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999955063609663 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 0.7439 | 0.7869 | -0.043 |
3 | 0.7492 | 0.743901932264785 | 0.00529806773521546 |
4 | 0.7804 | 0.74919976192396 | 0.0312002380760398 |
5 | 0.7678 | 0.780398597973923 | -0.0125985979739232 |
6 | 0.7573 | 0.767800566135516 | -0.0105005661355163 |
7 | 0.7337 | 0.757300471857539 | -0.0236004718575386 |
8 | 0.7136 | 0.733701060520015 | -0.0201010605200155 |
9 | 0.7107 | 0.713600903269102 | -0.00290090326910175 |
10 | 0.7015 | 0.710700130356122 | -0.00920013035612166 |
11 | 0.6874 | 0.701500413420649 | -0.0141004134206488 |
12 | 0.6754 | 0.687400633621681 | -0.0120006336216814 |
13 | 0.6713 | 0.675400539265157 | -0.00410053926515674 |
14 | 0.6849 | 0.671300184263433 | 0.013599815736567 |
15 | 0.7003 | 0.684899388873372 | 0.0154006111266285 |
16 | 0.7309 | 0.700299307952127 | 0.030600692047873 |
17 | 0.7364 | 0.730898624915358 | 0.00550137508464255 |
18 | 0.7439 | 0.736399752788062 | 0.00750024721193809 |
19 | 0.7928 | 0.743899662965964 | 0.0489003370340363 |
20 | 0.8188 | 0.792797802595367 | 0.0260021974046326 |
21 | 0.784 | 0.818798831555108 | -0.0347988315551078 |
22 | 0.7746 | 0.784001563733878 | -0.00940156373387813 |
23 | 0.7677 | 0.774600422472338 | -0.00690042247233758 |
24 | 0.7197 | 0.767700310080078 | -0.0480003100800778 |
25 | 0.7304 | 0.71970215696067 | 0.01069784303933 |
26 | 0.7567 | 0.730399519277549 | 0.0263004807224506 |
27 | 0.749 | 0.756698818151332 | -0.00769881815133222 |
28 | 0.7328 | 0.749000345957098 | -0.0162003459570975 |
29 | 0.7142 | 0.73280072798507 | -0.0186007279850696 |
30 | 0.6927 | 0.714200835849573 | -0.0215008358495733 |
31 | 0.6974 | 0.692700966169952 | 0.00469903383004777 |
32 | 0.6953 | 0.697399788842382 | -0.0020997888423816 |
33 | 0.699 | 0.695300094356931 | 0.00369990564306888 |
34 | 0.6971 | 0.698999833739596 | -0.00189983373959568 |
35 | 0.7246 | 0.697100085371671 | 0.0274999146283295 |
36 | 0.7301 | 0.724598764253102 | 0.00550123574689787 |
37 | 0.736 | 0.730099752794323 | 0.00590024720567683 |
38 | 0.7585 | 0.735999734864188 | 0.0225002651358115 |
39 | 0.7756 | 0.758498988919303 | 0.0171010110806968 |
40 | 0.7564 | 0.775599231542291 | -0.019199231542291 |
41 | 0.7568 | 0.756400862744163 | 0.00039913725583729 |
42 | 0.7593 | 0.756799982064213 | 0.00250001793578747 |
43 | 0.779 | 0.759299887658218 | 0.0197001123417818 |
44 | 0.7978 | 0.778999114748062 | 0.0188008852519378 |
45 | 0.8125 | 0.797799155156082 | 0.0147008448439184 |
46 | 0.8075 | 0.812499339397098 | -0.00499933939709785 |
47 | 0.7781 | 0.807500224652267 | -0.0294002246522665 |
48 | 0.771 | 0.778101321139971 | -0.00710132113997097 |
49 | 0.7796 | 0.771000319107739 | 0.00859968089226126 |
50 | 0.763 | 0.779599613561383 | -0.0165996135613826 |
51 | 0.7531 | 0.763000745926714 | -0.00990074592671442 |
52 | 0.7473 | 0.753100444903784 | -0.00580044490378362 |
53 | 0.7707 | 0.747300260651056 | 0.0233997393489438 |
54 | 0.7684 | 0.770698948500179 | -0.00229894850017887 |
55 | 0.7702 | 0.768400103306447 | 0.00179989669355285 |
56 | 0.759 | 0.77019991911914 | -0.0111999191191396 |
57 | 0.7649 | 0.759000503283937 | 0.00589949671606271 |
58 | 0.7508 | 0.764899734897913 | -0.0140997348979128 |
59 | 0.7494 | 0.750800633591191 | -0.00140063359119114 |
60 | 0.7334 | 0.749400062939418 | -0.0160000629394177 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.696846337336319 | 0.769955100633829 |
62 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.681706178189322 | 0.785095259780826 |
63 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.670088569452425 | 0.796712868517723 |
64 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.660294419606666 | 0.806507018363481 |
65 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.651665575141277 | 0.815135862828871 |
66 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.64386448905815 | 0.822936948911998 |
67 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.636690640917233 | 0.830110797052914 |
68 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.630013379671942 | 0.836788058298205 |
69 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.623741954353105 | 0.843059483617042 |
70 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.617810289489504 | 0.848991148480643 |
71 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.612168503294148 | 0.854632934675999 |
72 | 0.733400718985074 | 0.606777842490769 | 0.860023595479378 |