| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 39 | 39.6062725197977 | -0.0934956285839046 | -0.150496979523337 | -0.0454929310530888 |
| 3 | 50 | 45.8865137841207 | 0.168773567825354 | 0.917462244075662 | 0.276603553690219 |
| 4 | 40 | 42.5533003096326 | 0.0830451207493007 | -0.590387017183297 | -0.163036421313483 |
| 5 | 43 | 42.7077333168369 | 0.084327402165028 | 0.251260155178595 | 0.00337249033740638 |
| 6 | 38 | 39.9464645156109 | 0.039810974431908 | -0.301446889230147 | -0.134911079003188 |
| 7 | 44 | 42.2270664718191 | 0.0731375216225285 | 0.475257768324839 | 0.106330927730164 |
| 8 | 35 | 38.0549155040748 | 0.0109032829643089 | -0.595501467885979 | -0.201468409812978 |
| 9 | 39 | 38.4845205773286 | 0.0170356648541002 | 0.272937868565391 | 0.0198670790091495 |
| 10 | 35 | 36.4527709057553 | -0.0130874632592059 | -0.266277515316256 | -0.0971890678417177 |
| 11 | 29 | 32.0361520101277 | -0.0781853970306136 | -0.486772375520725 | -0.208834276180735 |
| 12 | 49 | 41.8316716847223 | 0.0686362410896246 | 1.4539153974337 | 0.468120439421502 |
| 13 | 50 | 45.5092769630382 | -0.170086936481979 | 2.29358401555241 | 0.212822407424729 |
| 14 | 59 | 54.4586928021289 | 0.110062274358763 | 0.434882809491241 | 0.370559172000182 |
| 15 | 63 | 59.1546349358807 | 0.225114295103752 | 1.5075624344267 | 0.205165436468391 |
| 16 | 32 | 44.3738117919015 | -0.0297693250849025 | -4.19834313305727 | -0.701294893289271 |
| 17 | 39 | 40.471582661632 | -0.0811121462070092 | 0.672857118004556 | -0.182769577524029 |
| 18 | 47 | 44.2885054857284 | -0.0344405349438455 | 0.544592683671395 | 0.184364268634503 |
| 19 | 53 | 48.9503669381075 | 0.0202837658265745 | 1.43685675384249 | 0.222199164963241 |
| 20 | 60 | 55.7889222223497 | 0.0998696007096298 | 0.4178242300536 | 0.322567127734152 |
| 21 | 57 | 56.5466461518906 | 0.107639587413699 | 0.0874625870840515 | 0.0311159456465922 |
| 22 | 52 | 53.9264388183302 | 0.0749103827791052 | -0.409741690832726 | -0.128995620173717 |
| 23 | 70 | 63.5996044622173 | 0.191076778010035 | 1.0651029264376 | 0.453778641902654 |
| 24 | 90 | 78.4779357537976 | 0.341224788836628 | 3.35098746672066 | 0.693879010290869 |
| 25 | 74 | 77.9845931691305 | 0.358551902574442 | -3.50667358713208 | -0.0434494769903992 |
| 26 | 62 | 68.9617350804255 | 0.161672117002985 | -2.33676349221649 | -0.411023666937281 |
| 27 | 55 | 58.6755995841866 | -0.0616683133468119 | 1.63838135964108 | -0.47256790865218 |
| 28 | 84 | 74.2063337173065 | 0.198272755212567 | 1.49715224556777 | 0.727529068215614 |
| 29 | 94 | 85.8309659804886 | 0.356557859123423 | 2.00355988121597 | 0.53775219999863 |
| 30 | 70 | 77.8594186584311 | 0.250305685178032 | -3.35045311113238 | -0.392655410148743 |
| 31 | 108 | 93.9638497101366 | 0.448243462712735 | 5.44691466093183 | 0.747680556369907 |
| 32 | 139 | 119.554512676844 | 0.763162400264038 | 5.82518982322085 | 1.18557901021789 |
| 33 | 120 | 121.049736067412 | 0.772442796274874 | -1.44620935454273 | 0.0345136916760811 |
| 34 | 97 | 109.130920223402 | 0.609447196753702 | -5.25934000506185 | -0.598239398690721 |
| 35 | 126 | 118.681211030174 | 0.72291087618446 | 2.47827420937346 | 0.42132271166793 |
| 36 | 149 | 134.265116730853 | 0.873727035868574 | 6.68177573798784 | 0.700051592312021 |
| 37 | 158 | 148.569987095808 | 0.815715968336104 | 1.99817566855766 | 0.666728386686687 |
| 38 | 124 | 136.204561001398 | 0.584733141803927 | -5.49899269487874 | -0.595814835316965 |
| 39 | 140 | 138.616016186229 | 0.620968920890996 | 0.454677579377946 | 0.0831735032458432 |
| 40 | 109 | 122.778112004647 | 0.337980011619326 | -5.14330907616827 | -0.766428294895348 |
| 41 | 114 | 115.55347055655 | 0.224135353001212 | 2.4636574162304 | -0.354943401099348 |
| 42 | 77 | 97.7333968476302 | -0.0296015836968441 | -11.1169553430578 | -0.84838777593516 |
| 43 | 120 | 108.597949408153 | 0.120377356189553 | 5.59232424571726 | 0.512334994614388 |
| 44 | 133 | 119.459429417231 | 0.268406059952749 | 7.81269415866454 | 0.505091550044813 |
| 45 | 110 | 114.827227411519 | 0.200263822465222 | -2.21441345616142 | -0.230416521351508 |
| 46 | 92 | 106.31557880477 | 0.0784495074285591 | -9.67153551917209 | -0.409553236185389 |
| 47 | 97 | 101.236363929908 | 0.00837419974026841 | -1.48717747751066 | -0.242351512031554 |
| 48 | 78 | 85.6059478084837 | -0.167378030202246 | 0.735415231902353 | -0.735067229577126 |
| 49 | 99 | 88.6053485815619 | -0.154029531353034 | 8.67994946753885 | 0.153419443156978 |
| 50 | 107 | 101.756641494673 | 0.0642110309273865 | -1.61153077225121 | 0.610395137347965 |
| 51 | 112 | 106.138519206265 | 0.146233137080183 | 3.65927323326931 | 0.197595988420346 |
| 52 | 90 | 99.4772125365977 | 0.0262247888050417 | -5.93310607481587 | -0.31655926554769 |
| 53 | 98 | 95.3512438929749 | -0.0405143321347369 | 4.83381752846199 | -0.194451682962181 |
| 54 | 125 | 118.573698586904 | 0.313339845945864 | -5.85499142466583 | 1.09133941572638 |
| 55 | 155 | 137.708552760967 | 0.593767389022662 | 7.34806707205896 | 0.883196099801903 |
| 56 | 190 | 162.735334292057 | 0.95716151477753 | 14.3564580318064 | 1.14644936348405 |
| 57 | 236 | 204.680660433524 | 1.56961504317511 | 9.66759616204333 | 1.92306182471618 |
| 58 | 189 | 203.465388670986 | 1.52806869580928 | -12.9944921047265 | -0.130633491522802 |
| 59 | 174 | 187.424020037102 | 1.27490858718976 | -4.14627184361091 | -0.823649013178864 |
| 60 | 178 | 182.343299315433 | 1.19505043913963 | -0.985477053172914 | -0.298217234229195 |
| 61 | 136 | 155.475147202568 | 0.937912427011397 | -4.49003866752401 | -1.3409117064352 |
| 62 | 161 | 158.932341748875 | 0.978750169932862 | 0.762840514608917 | 0.116438469105081 |
| 63 | 171 | 162.704442582689 | 1.03038361834278 | 6.86624801209896 | 0.128357267054998 |
| 64 | 149 | 158.317609803019 | 0.933607555219412 | -6.50847058478486 | -0.251718537627848 |
| 65 | 184 | 171.991098450984 | 1.14742271941876 | 5.34245358842356 | 0.59565606214084 |
| 66 | 155 | 169.0097170425 | 1.08105732636782 | -11.842627928412 | -0.19337388109597 |
| 67 | 276 | 226.585316834824 | 1.9718661204025 | 19.7413801445612 | 2.64660636262013 |
| 68 | 224 | 225.117946623415 | 1.91786202281052 | 0.688609783262312 | -0.161111471445632 |
| 69 | 213 | 213.856981919967 | 1.71080241735711 | 6.06500824681364 | -0.617299653637027 |
| 70 | 279 | 254.618063563868 | 2.3204252925674 | 3.87487431874104 | 1.82859299374303 |
| 71 | 268 | 265.835549262457 | 2.45477804588897 | -2.50607910116399 | 0.416352074921179 |
| 72 | 287 | 277.000748703911 | 2.57474120993956 | 5.42439473886019 | 0.408150458200819 |
| 73 | 238 | 260.905732231546 | 2.34762865032265 | -13.0262558705597 | -0.884727112559617 |
| 74 | 213 | 234.890192254059 | 1.88377611752829 | -7.16848166460815 | -1.31602561729657 |
| 75 | 257 | 242.05879890668 | 1.97973879233844 | 12.2290763279447 | 0.243621416491485 |
| 76 | 293 | 275.226337884075 | 2.53956840434491 | 1.63184797839525 | 1.44879289011538 |
| 77 | 212 | 240.664652586754 | 1.90044809605836 | -9.31837135575457 | -1.73270144066219 |
| 78 | 246 | 255.021590423107 | 2.10808433605415 | -15.5354215705081 | 0.582703926374154 |
| 79 | 353 | 298.047937021464 | 2.77866124300651 | 33.5398835381066 | 1.91459190955744 |
| 80 | 339 | 322.19173173968 | 3.12677539760328 | 5.62713860233206 | 0.999631637374403 |
| 81 | 308 | 318.207102097653 | 3.01119243954206 | -6.48576626183923 | -0.332679073277324 |
| 82 | 247 | 279.913059802112 | 2.34574230832444 | -11.3038571290651 | -1.93156170988909 |
| 83 | 257 | 268.663352363657 | 2.13283511572517 | -4.55412073425757 | -0.635395807163381 |
| 84 | 322 | 292.265234909016 | 2.44952017318397 | 18.5015424008124 | 1.00491203306009 |
| 85 | 298 | 301.330344730021 | 2.54234400124423 | -6.81033586000608 | 0.31189484700388 |
| 86 | 273 | 292.32122043803 | 2.35076099029361 | -13.3210115344334 | -0.537101045091351 |
| 87 | 312 | 299.514440829433 | 2.4376645303898 | 9.99447215553312 | 0.223783265141252 |
| 88 | 249 | 268.717358583965 | 1.84117040846165 | -2.53006194609202 | -1.54393192534501 |
| 89 | 286 | 284.890859310144 | 2.09168138887112 | -6.34791257311679 | 0.668829076909777 |
| 90 | 279 | 296.47249855857 | 2.25353592936102 | -22.4229518101344 | 0.44355462222806 |
| 91 | 309 | 288.787523323761 | 2.0864702471911 | 25.4004009205498 | -0.464628484651119 |
| 92 | 401 | 345.74660335964 | 3.00282227789875 | 26.6079171628596 | 2.56506505879654 |
| 93 | 309 | 328.510515196557 | 2.66631997809367 | -8.94644831613826 | -0.945877619248928 |
| 94 | 328 | 334.190160069302 | 2.71594913705953 | -7.76247735869605 | 0.140765447514993 |
| 95 | 353 | 350.781528696146 | 2.93935076100176 | -5.01796674034648 | 0.647883293111441 |
| 96 | 354 | 344.96911700743 | 2.80371774779573 | 13.5985004611518 | -0.409306096438891 |
| 97 | 327 | 338.676185915881 | 2.66534744579877 | -6.91014435707183 | -0.427457199409599 |
| 98 | 324 | 338.524376081061 | 2.61800057365093 | -13.0608550206327 | -0.131138763770716 |
| 99 | 285 | 301.417437815146 | 1.9106563661307 | 4.05612547758505 | -1.83929849734853 |
| 100 | 243 | 271.716354124799 | 1.34474082533734 | -12.3723186173988 | -1.46883100845011 |
| 101 | 241 | 258.447707330755 | 1.08744495228566 | -9.85516488015835 | -0.681593552823639 |
| 102 | 287 | 285.68236237462 | 1.53961001926826 | -12.2995861457728 | 1.22137107632634 |
| 103 | 355 | 316.613047804434 | 2.04178602723338 | 23.0706061112113 | 1.37319892372823 |
| 104 | 460 | 380.327452952341 | 3.08848297120196 | 47.5328344924497 | 2.88101376058854 |
| 105 | 364 | 381.47290286856 | 3.05568048574286 | -16.460526391591 | -0.0907409183447474 |
| 106 | 487 | 446.475305667104 | 4.09205388342943 | 8.26238488685441 | 2.89151451141658 |
| 107 | 452 | 456.129008271264 | 4.18348954930718 | -7.02422963468845 | 0.25952299188642 |
| 108 | 391 | 415.107268732433 | 3.45796454306919 | -0.555288799399896 | -2.11280922147996 |
| 109 | 500 | 463.247025776412 | 4.17143156593746 | 13.4065764012022 | 2.09508101260342 |
| 110 | 451 | 461.846937002257 | 4.07678242951916 | -7.95288211440268 | -0.259522733484155 |
| 111 | 375 | 410.053164387886 | 3.08722703831074 | -6.21821388697954 | -2.59062547586029 |
| 112 | 372 | 393.929953414184 | 2.74451785752794 | -11.9972737113835 | -0.892859521340458 |
| 113 | 302 | 352.888173101509 | 1.9712737596593 | -28.1594474017868 | -2.0415824431476 |
| 114 | 316 | 342.743559158275 | 1.76008316566919 | -20.4409720285249 | -0.565707861978666 |
| 115 | 398 | 366.95322108713 | 2.14757852305673 | 19.3617031563384 | 1.0484194401036 |
| 116 | 394 | 358.833102208807 | 1.97147529226045 | 40.5111046038833 | -0.479413351774384 |
| 117 | 431 | 414.329305618574 | 2.88445877096003 | -11.1803686229528 | 2.49820504864228 |
| 118 | 431 | 422.554438618937 | 2.97482216531475 | 5.6679373357107 | 0.249142532461327 |
