| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.65064526311198 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 39 | 41 | -2 |
| 3 | 50 | 39.698709473776 | 10.301290526224 |
| 4 | 40 | 46.401195358604 | -6.40119535860397 |
| 5 | 43 | 42.2362879202739 | 0.763712079726091 |
| 6 | 38 | 42.7331935673291 | -4.73319356732909 |
| 7 | 44 | 39.6535635933543 | 4.34643640664567 |
| 8 | 35 | 42.4815518527558 | -7.48155185275579 |
| 9 | 39 | 37.6137155790336 | 1.38628442096642 |
| 10 | 35 | 38.5156949708613 | -3.51569497086132 |
| 11 | 29 | 36.2282246915238 | -7.22822469152379 |
| 12 | 49 | 31.5252145352748 | 17.4747854647252 |
| 13 | 50 | 42.8951009217963 | 7.10489907820368 |
| 14 | 59 | 47.5178698519182 | 11.4821301480818 |
| 15 | 63 | 54.9886634432029 | 8.01133655679712 |
| 16 | 32 | 60.2012016250788 | -28.2012016250788 |
| 17 | 39 | 41.8522233736554 | -2.85222337365541 |
| 18 | 47 | 39.9964377462492 | 7.00356225375075 |
| 19 | 53 | 44.553272351562 | 8.44672764843796 |
| 20 | 60 | 50.0490956848152 | 9.95090431518481 |
| 21 | 57 | 56.5236044411707 | 0.47639555882926 |
| 22 | 52 | 56.8335689548906 | -4.83356895489058 |
| 23 | 70 | 53.6886302104659 | 16.3113697895341 |
| 24 | 90 | 64.3015456988941 | 25.6984543011059 |
| 25 | 74 | 81.0221232592083 | -7.02212325920834 |
| 26 | 62 | 76.453212023616 | -14.453212023616 |
| 27 | 55 | 67.0492980836971 | -12.0492980836971 |
| 28 | 84 | 59.2094793617153 | 24.7905206382847 |
| 29 | 94 | 75.339314185095 | 18.660685814905 |
| 30 | 70 | 87.4808010169839 | -17.4808010169839 |
| 31 | 108 | 76.1070006398802 | 31.8929993601198 |
| 32 | 139 | 96.8580295999756 | 42.1419704000244 |
| 33 | 120 | 124.277503018957 | -4.27750301895672 |
| 34 | 97 | 121.494365941725 | -24.4943659417253 |
| 35 | 126 | 105.55722276881 | 20.4427772311897 |
| 36 | 149 | 118.858218939137 | 30.1417810608627 |
| 37 | 158 | 138.469826008146 | 19.530173991854 |
| 38 | 124 | 151.177041203699 | -27.1770412036986 |
| 39 | 140 | 133.494428079113 | 6.50557192088698 |
| 40 | 109 | 137.727247633272 | -28.7272476332724 |
| 41 | 114 | 119.036000038439 | -5.0360000384389 |
| 42 | 77 | 115.759350468397 | -38.7593504683969 |
| 43 | 120 | 90.5407626848374 | 29.4592373151626 |
| 44 | 133 | 109.70827589884 | 23.2917241011604 |
| 45 | 110 | 124.862925854971 | -14.8629258549708 |
| 46 | 92 | 115.192433551449 | -23.1924335514495 |
| 47 | 97 | 100.10238652116 | -3.10238652115953 |
| 48 | 78 | 98.0838334268246 | -20.0838334268246 |
| 49 | 99 | 85.0163823425311 | 13.9836176574689 |
| 50 | 107 | 94.1147569325323 | 12.8852430674677 |
| 51 | 112 | 102.498479298427 | 9.50152070157337 |
| 52 | 90 | 108.680598735266 | -18.6805987352658 |
| 53 | 98 | 96.5261556560694 | 1.47384434393055 |
| 54 | 125 | 97.4851054970122 | 27.5148945029878 |
| 55 | 155 | 115.387541270407 | 39.6124587295929 |
| 56 | 190 | 141.161199903036 | 48.8388000969645 |
| 57 | 236 | 172.937933842198 | 63.0620661578016 |
| 58 | 189 | 213.968968469826 | -24.9689684698263 |
| 59 | 174 | 197.723027410141 | -23.7230274101414 |
| 60 | 178 | 182.287751999057 | -4.28775199905726 |
| 61 | 136 | 179.497946471472 | -43.4979464714717 |
| 62 | 161 | 151.19621364471 | 9.80378635528982 |
| 63 | 171 | 157.575000797341 | 13.4249992026586 |
| 64 | 149 | 166.309912935833 | -17.3099129358333 |
| 65 | 184 | 155.047300079253 | 28.9526999207474 |
| 66 | 155 | 173.885237136989 | -18.8852371369895 |
| 67 | 276 | 161.597647051061 | 114.402352948939 |
| 68 | 224 | 236.032996086153 | -12.0329960861529 |
| 69 | 213 | 228.203784181653 | -15.2037841816525 |
| 70 | 279 | 218.311514022483 | 60.6884859775165 |
| 71 | 268 | 257.798189949192 | 10.2018100508076 |
| 72 | 287 | 264.435949333919 | 22.5640506660815 |
| 73 | 238 | 279.117142016423 | -41.1171420164231 |
| 74 | 213 | 252.364468330735 | -39.3644683307349 |
| 75 | 257 | 226.752163476421 | 30.2478365235793 |
| 76 | 293 | 246.432775029873 | 46.5672249701269 |
| 77 | 212 | 276.731519372956 | -64.7315193729561 |
| 78 | 246 | 234.614262918901 | 11.3857370810991 |
| 79 | 353 | 242.022338817756 | 110.977661182244 |
| 80 | 339 | 314.229428377229 | 24.7705716227705 |
| 81 | 308 | 330.346283468161 | -22.3462834681611 |
| 82 | 247 | 315.806779981445 | -68.8067799814445 |
| 83 | 257 | 271.037974516529 | -14.0379745165295 |
| 84 | 322 | 261.904232893663 | 60.0957671063371 |
| 85 | 298 | 301.005259094482 | -3.00525909448186 |
| 86 | 273 | 299.049901500233 | -26.049901500233 |
| 87 | 312 | 282.100656484573 | 29.8993435154272 |
| 88 | 249 | 301.554522713043 | -52.5545227130434 |
| 89 | 286 | 267.360171454691 | 18.6398285453092 |
| 90 | 279 | 279.488087602916 | -0.488087602915698 |
| 91 | 309 | 279.170515716095 | 29.8294842839051 |
| 92 | 401 | 298.578928366491 | 102.421071633509 |
| 93 | 309 | 365.218713467686 | -56.2187134676864 |
| 94 | 328 | 328.640273851687 | -0.640273851686572 |
| 95 | 353 | 328.223682702992 | 24.7763172970078 |
| 96 | 354 | 344.34427618965 | 9.65572381035025 |
| 97 | 327 | 350.626727148772 | -23.6267271487717 |
| 98 | 324 | 335.254109046584 | -11.2541090465842 |
| 99 | 285 | 327.931676304879 | -42.9316763048785 |
| 100 | 243 | 299.998384479652 | -56.9983844796525 |
| 101 | 241 | 262.912655612931 | -21.9126556129312 |
| 102 | 287 | 248.655290036173 | 38.3447099638266 |
| 103 | 355 | 273.60409393954 | 81.3959060604601 |
| 104 | 460 | 326.563954654486 | 133.436045345514 |
| 105 | 364 | 413.38348548694 | -49.38348548694 |
| 106 | 487 | 381.252354578903 | 105.747645421097 |
| 107 | 452 | 450.056559157385 | 1.9434408426149 |
| 108 | 391 | 451.321049735771 | -60.3210497357708 |
| 109 | 500 | 412.073444459249 | 87.9265555407506 |
| 110 | 451 | 469.282441323591 | -18.2824413235912 |
| 111 | 375 | 457.387057478274 | -82.3870574782738 |
| 112 | 372 | 403.782308788301 | -31.7823087883006 |
| 113 | 302 | 383.103300124431 | -81.1033001244306 |
| 114 | 316 | 330.333822075721 | -14.3338220757206 |
| 115 | 398 | 321.007588639863 | 76.9924113601369 |
| 116 | 394 | 371.102336386905 | 22.8976636130949 |
| 117 | 431 | 386.000592753097 | 44.9994072469032 |
| 118 | 431 | 415.279243921141 | 15.7207560788588 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 119 | 425.50787939639 | 348.768396760238 | 502.247362032541 |
| 120 | 425.50787939639 | 333.954773730538 | 517.060985062242 |
| 121 | 425.50787939639 | 321.224639521225 | 529.791119271554 |
| 122 | 425.50787939639 | 309.887738068594 | 541.128020724185 |
| 123 | 425.50787939639 | 299.567258298755 | 551.448500494024 |
| 124 | 425.50787939639 | 290.030711562631 | 560.985047230148 |
| 125 | 425.50787939639 | 281.122679441357 | 569.893079351422 |
| 126 | 425.50787939639 | 272.733179501894 | 578.282579290885 |
| 127 | 425.50787939639 | 264.780993376497 | 586.234765416282 |
| 128 | 425.50787939639 | 257.20412170973 | 593.81163708305 |
| 129 | 425.50787939639 | 249.953962284727 | 601.061796508052 |
| 130 | 425.50787939639 | 242.991576631276 | 608.024182161504 |
