| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.213143664571784 |
| beta | 0.00645020019309324 |
| gamma | 0.424943606209404 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 50 | 47.1054399101549 | 2.89456008984506 |
| 14 | 59 | 55.9623334237951 | 3.03766657620488 |
| 15 | 63 | 59.600587898616 | 3.39941210138404 |
| 16 | 32 | 30.4393736626747 | 1.56062633732526 |
| 17 | 39 | 36.5604009451045 | 2.43959905489554 |
| 18 | 47 | 42.8251094355245 | 4.17489056447554 |
| 19 | 53 | 56.0035962549122 | -3.00359625491225 |
| 20 | 60 | 43.6874883540304 | 16.3125116459696 |
| 21 | 57 | 51.8988510976777 | 5.10114890232234 |
| 22 | 52 | 48.2401909021999 | 3.75980909780009 |
| 23 | 70 | 41.8819045749863 | 28.1180954250137 |
| 24 | 90 | 81.8658655722655 | 8.13413442773454 |
| 25 | 74 | 86.9533818199799 | -12.9533818199799 |
| 26 | 62 | 97.5989383758822 | -35.5989383758822 |
| 27 | 55 | 94.1112419276594 | -39.1112419276594 |
| 28 | 84 | 42.9292530224339 | 41.0707469775661 |
| 29 | 94 | 61.2354810756646 | 32.7645189243354 |
| 30 | 70 | 78.9123828735172 | -8.91238287351722 |
| 31 | 108 | 93.1912445312916 | 14.8087554687084 |
| 32 | 139 | 85.745168240334 | 53.254831759666 |
| 33 | 120 | 98.161118102632 | 21.838881897368 |
| 34 | 97 | 92.3826877848818 | 4.6173122151182 |
| 35 | 126 | 92.413334159757 | 33.586665840243 |
| 36 | 149 | 146.190315323717 | 2.80968467628333 |
| 37 | 158 | 139.583025059725 | 18.4169749402755 |
| 38 | 124 | 151.40690084049 | -27.4069008404896 |
| 39 | 140 | 147.812296583395 | -7.81229658339493 |
| 40 | 109 | 108.535321209431 | 0.464678790568755 |
| 41 | 114 | 117.503833288207 | -3.50383328820688 |
| 42 | 77 | 111.491890235352 | -34.4918902353522 |
| 43 | 120 | 137.392741457317 | -17.3927414573171 |
| 44 | 133 | 133.550538091545 | -0.550538091545462 |
| 45 | 110 | 121.870273958659 | -11.8702739586587 |
| 46 | 92 | 101.636565226354 | -9.63656522635388 |
| 47 | 97 | 107.771493254875 | -10.7714932548753 |
| 48 | 78 | 139.96193181665 | -61.9619318166498 |
| 49 | 99 | 124.886206798657 | -25.8862067986565 |
| 50 | 107 | 113.177831745115 | -6.17783174511507 |
| 51 | 112 | 119.061002171171 | -7.06100217117134 |
| 52 | 90 | 89.0251134804028 | 0.974886519597192 |
| 53 | 98 | 95.4199629759874 | 2.58003702401257 |
| 54 | 125 | 82.3202326698077 | 42.6797673301923 |
| 55 | 155 | 129.630849234442 | 25.3691507655582 |
| 56 | 190 | 140.700154878208 | 49.2998451217921 |
| 57 | 236 | 133.52953175825 | 102.47046824175 |
| 58 | 189 | 132.209757472185 | 56.7902425278149 |
| 59 | 174 | 155.570702285717 | 18.4292977142827 |
| 60 | 178 | 182.91427237436 | -4.91427237435985 |
| 61 | 136 | 198.150377986202 | -62.1503779862019 |
| 62 | 161 | 185.047759625672 | -24.0477596256715 |
| 63 | 171 | 190.702749040377 | -19.7027490403766 |
| 64 | 149 | 144.29947215517 | 4.70052784483045 |
| 65 | 184 | 155.819588965497 | 28.1804110345027 |
| 66 | 155 | 158.658606313425 | -3.658606313425 |
| 67 | 276 | 205.406540582624 | 70.593459417376 |
| 68 | 224 | 239.226122351414 | -15.2261223514139 |
| 69 | 213 | 228.97946822359 | -15.9794682235899 |
| 70 | 279 | 177.769152238654 | 101.230847761346 |
| 71 | 268 | 197.045259744197 | 70.9547402558033 |
| 72 | 287 | 231.909422911664 | 55.0905770883356 |
| 73 | 238 | 237.520355788568 | 0.479644211431577 |
| 74 | 213 | 255.630083725721 | -42.6300837257214 |
| 75 | 257 | 263.551451392396 | -6.55145139239562 |
| 76 | 293 | 212.264665165249 | 80.7353348347509 |
| 77 | 212 | 257.289537670057 | -45.289537670057 |
| 78 | 246 | 227.386238467006 | 18.6137615329943 |
| 79 | 353 | 335.435918697602 | 17.5640813023978 |
| 80 | 339 | 324.956767280608 | 14.0432327193918 |
| 81 | 308 | 317.200424013298 | -9.2004240132984 |
| 82 | 247 | 297.35309743694 | -50.3530974369401 |
| 83 | 257 | 269.048143450586 | -12.0481434505858 |
| 84 | 322 | 281.585625007228 | 40.4143749927717 |
| 85 | 298 | 263.018240723642 | 34.9817592763578 |
| 86 | 273 | 273.783458765981 | -0.783458765981436 |
| 87 | 312 | 307.634036808234 | 4.36596319176562 |
| 88 | 249 | 281.393544546959 | -32.3935445469594 |
| 89 | 286 | 258.376361117543 | 27.6236388824571 |
| 90 | 279 | 265.24719021051 | 13.7528097894896 |
| 91 | 309 | 384.965513568952 | -75.9655135689516 |
| 92 | 401 | 352.066686631737 | 48.9333133682632 |
| 93 | 309 | 342.098302816728 | -33.0983028167284 |
| 94 | 328 | 300.232758213019 | 27.7672417869809 |
| 95 | 353 | 300.526377484549 | 52.4736225154508 |
| 96 | 354 | 349.806600446727 | 4.19339955327297 |
| 97 | 327 | 316.668359676066 | 10.3316403239343 |
| 98 | 324 | 308.9311723587 | 15.0688276413005 |
| 99 | 285 | 352.763567038032 | -67.7635670380317 |
| 100 | 243 | 294.805200411894 | -51.8052004118941 |
| 101 | 241 | 287.64632500351 | -46.6463250035102 |
| 102 | 287 | 273.798827019883 | 13.2011729801171 |
| 103 | 355 | 363.304616749653 | -8.30461674965301 |
| 104 | 460 | 387.219805983284 | 72.780194016716 |
| 105 | 364 | 351.471344673294 | 12.5286553267057 |
| 106 | 487 | 337.976115293891 | 149.023884706109 |
| 107 | 452 | 371.926430917631 | 80.0735690823693 |
| 108 | 391 | 414.75027036822 | -23.7502703682199 |
| 109 | 500 | 372.29416944829 | 127.70583055171 |
| 110 | 451 | 388.943639219664 | 62.0563607803361 |
| 111 | 375 | 417.178199639255 | -42.1781996392548 |
| 112 | 372 | 357.815125604952 | 14.1848743950485 |
| 113 | 302 | 367.547487313144 | -65.5474873131442 |
| 114 | 316 | 375.106366255881 | -59.1063662558813 |
| 115 | 398 | 464.864989196214 | -66.8649891962139 |
| 116 | 394 | 515.546883764626 | -121.546883764626 |
| 117 | 431 | 407.554042998289 | 23.4459570017113 |
| 118 | 431 | 441.367396683966 | -10.3673966839662 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 119 | 415.894057518486 | 370.11725471943 | 461.670860317541 |
| 120 | 406.642333118463 | 357.656358905085 | 455.628307331841 |
| 121 | 416.914953425485 | 364.473432897229 | 469.35647395374 |
| 122 | 385.423295300715 | 331.314231281698 | 439.532359319733 |
| 123 | 366.8727400694 | 310.844594442423 | 422.900885696377 |
| 124 | 337.324017241972 | 280.330013889305 | 394.318020594638 |
| 125 | 317.963806162532 | 259.617461655594 | 376.310150669469 |
| 126 | 339.857506927654 | 276.953324752298 | 402.761689103011 |
| 127 | 437.892047535499 | 362.264104046392 | 513.519991024607 |
| 128 | 483.19937256445 | 400.109727283811 | 566.28901784509 |
| 129 | 446.772591109982 | 366.23781730235 | 527.307364917615 |
| 130 | 465.193408486709 | 388.40960019872 | 541.977216774697 |
