| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.275592474736482 |
| beta | 0.0326929527336248 |
| gamma | 0.870729222265356 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 111.081808708867 | 3.91819129113323 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.331452141086 | 3.66854785891375 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.439012569901 | 3.56098743009872 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.323380345382 | 2.67661965461849 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.479680462729 | 1.52031953727052 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.667288314871 | 1.33271168512874 |
| 19 | 170 | 162.443243712473 | 7.55675628752655 |
| 20 | 170 | 165.529589613323 | 4.47041038667743 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.887712294251 | 4.11228770574891 |
| 22 | 133 | 136.318641448734 | -3.31864144873435 |
| 23 | 114 | 119.090610790114 | -5.09061079011437 |
| 24 | 140 | 133.988719950497 | 6.01128004950252 |
| 25 | 145 | 134.83036828992 | 10.16963171008 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.705143441366 | 0.294856558633825 |
| 27 | 178 | 166.54082599966 | 11.4591740003399 |
| 28 | 163 | 161.74972837819 | 1.25027162181047 |
| 29 | 172 | 149.757507993042 | 22.2424920069584 |
| 30 | 178 | 185.647723596326 | -7.64772359632616 |
| 31 | 199 | 206.262153619029 | -7.26215361902862 |
| 32 | 199 | 203.180886325984 | -4.18088632598446 |
| 33 | 184 | 186.419252204205 | -2.41925220420524 |
| 34 | 162 | 158.14779913675 | 3.85220086325032 |
| 35 | 146 | 138.368728198326 | 7.63127180167447 |
| 36 | 166 | 169.141340932278 | -3.14134093227756 |
| 37 | 171 | 170.360941535352 | 0.639058464648485 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.438190472368 | 2.56180952763228 |
| 39 | 193 | 206.247937478342 | -13.2479374783417 |
| 40 | 181 | 185.960743337434 | -4.96074333743397 |
| 41 | 183 | 184.798362273962 | -1.79836227396243 |
| 42 | 218 | 195.684395505413 | 22.3156044945871 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.498397718798 | 2.50160228120185 |
| 44 | 242 | 229.00477178944 | 12.99522821056 |
| 45 | 209 | 215.630984242779 | -6.63098424277877 |
| 46 | 191 | 186.286597370311 | 4.71340262968926 |
| 47 | 172 | 166.037642761141 | 5.9623572388594 |
| 48 | 194 | 192.842517670215 | 1.15748232978453 |
| 49 | 196 | 198.309951792615 | -2.30995179261473 |
| 50 | 196 | 206.984490574542 | -10.9844905745421 |
| 51 | 236 | 224.192965596171 | 11.8070344038292 |
| 52 | 235 | 214.065423836271 | 20.9345761637294 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.675239689628 | 6.32476031037231 |
| 54 | 243 | 256.737994926104 | -13.7379949261037 |
| 55 | 264 | 268.358000825087 | -4.35800082508734 |
| 56 | 272 | 275.595138563008 | -3.59513856300828 |
| 57 | 237 | 240.950054518824 | -3.95005451882361 |
| 58 | 211 | 216.418708751082 | -5.41870875108208 |
| 59 | 180 | 191.302349202138 | -11.3023492021381 |
| 60 | 201 | 212.165209086808 | -11.1652090868085 |
| 61 | 204 | 211.884606924298 | -7.88460692429757 |
| 62 | 188 | 213.278507450619 | -25.2785074506189 |
| 63 | 235 | 241.844292266095 | -6.84429226609501 |
| 64 | 227 | 231.126648633709 | -4.12664863370898 |
| 65 | 234 | 222.847577264951 | 11.1524227350493 |
| 66 | 264 | 244.403589556129 | 19.5964104438712 |
| 67 | 302 | 270.925430122294 | 31.0745698777057 |
| 68 | 293 | 288.463281003996 | 4.5367189960038 |
| 69 | 259 | 253.325564521037 | 5.67443547896278 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.457233710862 | 0.542766289138285 |
| 71 | 203 | 198.766723143808 | 4.23327685619248 |
| 72 | 229 | 226.325368143992 | 2.67463185600812 |
| 73 | 242 | 232.507692400681 | 9.49230759931945 |
| 74 | 233 | 226.155487496554 | 6.84451250344586 |
| 75 | 267 | 284.984109809789 | -17.9841098097895 |
| 76 | 269 | 271.954044414962 | -2.95404441496231 |
| 77 | 270 | 274.414349879446 | -4.41434987944558 |
| 78 | 315 | 301.110875912756 | 13.8891240872443 |
| 79 | 364 | 337.481480217207 | 26.5185197827932 |
| 80 | 347 | 335.985533162037 | 11.0144668379627 |
| 81 | 312 | 297.836666071854 | 14.1633339281457 |
| 82 | 274 | 267.300445465088 | 6.69955453491195 |
| 83 | 237 | 236.992543135441 | 0.00745686455874761 |
| 84 | 278 | 266.900689163387 | 11.0993108366132 |
| 85 | 284 | 281.633925908284 | 2.36607409171592 |
| 86 | 277 | 269.9672458906 | 7.03275410939972 |
| 87 | 317 | 320.174999871827 | -3.17499987182669 |
| 88 | 313 | 321.276899149147 | -8.27689914914714 |
| 89 | 318 | 322.045741325618 | -4.04574132561817 |
| 90 | 374 | 367.951178474251 | 6.04882152574879 |
| 91 | 413 | 417.203225397334 | -4.20322539733377 |
| 92 | 405 | 394.606247713416 | 10.3937522865844 |
| 93 | 355 | 352.306655336865 | 2.69334466313461 |
| 94 | 306 | 308.44980888123 | -2.44980888123007 |
| 95 | 271 | 266.69633780151 | 4.30366219848986 |
| 96 | 306 | 309.394161372703 | -3.39416137270325 |
| 97 | 315 | 315.103179025905 | -0.103179025904751 |
| 98 | 301 | 304.405357956349 | -3.40535795634855 |
| 99 | 356 | 349.058201817868 | 6.941798182132 |
| 100 | 348 | 349.292551021804 | -1.29255102180434 |
| 101 | 355 | 355.073176743194 | -0.073176743193585 |
| 102 | 422 | 414.360922266096 | 7.63907773390383 |
| 103 | 465 | 462.091146643934 | 2.90885335606589 |
| 104 | 467 | 448.979705968488 | 18.0202940315119 |
| 105 | 404 | 397.635010380021 | 6.36498961997916 |
| 106 | 347 | 345.450978117796 | 1.54902188220382 |
| 107 | 305 | 304.243038614501 | 0.756961385498755 |
| 108 | 336 | 345.615242815442 | -9.61524281544212 |
| 109 | 340 | 352.616294292296 | -12.6162942922957 |
| 110 | 318 | 334.810889595363 | -16.8108895953633 |
| 111 | 362 | 386.941371143569 | -24.9413711435694 |
| 112 | 348 | 372.190854481381 | -24.1908544813805 |
| 113 | 363 | 372.090123849995 | -9.09012384999534 |
| 114 | 435 | 435.498537075608 | -0.49853707560834 |
| 115 | 491 | 478.418383525412 | 12.5816164745884 |
| 116 | 505 | 476.297736428689 | 28.7022635713109 |
| 117 | 404 | 417.219138602201 | -13.219138602201 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.436906440642 | 4.56309355935804 |
| 119 | 310 | 311.87647452998 | -1.8764745299797 |
| 120 | 337 | 345.975126181844 | -8.97512618184402 |
| 121 | 360 | 350.643068831253 | 9.35693116874671 |
| 122 | 342 | 334.994586512653 | 7.00541348734674 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.685878839785 | 15.3141211602154 |
| 124 | 396 | 386.498863412815 | 9.50113658718476 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.1307396646 | 12.8692603354004 |
| 126 | 472 | 491.604975308889 | -19.6049753088889 |
| 127 | 548 | 543.780022319878 | 4.21997768012193 |
| 128 | 559 | 549.935293999605 | 9.06470600039495 |
| 129 | 463 | 449.638769888318 | 13.3612301116821 |
| 130 | 407 | 399.913027267264 | 7.08697273273566 |
| 131 | 362 | 348.397215116609 | 13.6027848833913 |
| 132 | 405 | 386.652093911441 | 18.3479060885589 |
| 133 | 417 | 413.916764563469 | 3.08323543653114 |
| 134 | 391 | 392.451160571743 | -1.45116057174295 |
| 135 | 419 | 460.170501367301 | -41.1705013673007 |
| 136 | 461 | 435.421790272071 | 25.5782097279285 |
| 137 | 472 | 465.095112731697 | 6.90488726830318 |
| 138 | 535 | 534.352710870328 | 0.647289129672004 |
| 139 | 622 | 616.735355637606 | 5.26464436239382 |
| 140 | 606 | 627.551048082553 | -21.5510480825526 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.133147348624 | -2.13314734862428 |
| 142 | 461 | 446.162802943524 | 14.8371970564757 |
| 143 | 390 | 395.452817646611 | -5.45281764661138 |
| 144 | 432 | 434.572462781258 | -2.57246278125848 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 447.055931344911 | 427.306133026705 | 466.805729663116 |
| 146 | 419.712279855693 | 399.13258524496 | 440.291974466426 |
| 147 | 464.867131095755 | 442.963034360712 | 486.771227830798 |
| 148 | 496.083937621018 | 472.832900505225 | 519.334974736812 |
| 149 | 507.532637500565 | 483.137513327865 | 531.927761673266 |
| 150 | 575.450895961042 | 548.708256350197 | 602.193535571886 |
| 151 | 666.59229342041 | 636.628829419511 | 696.555757421308 |
| 152 | 657.913718340461 | 627.182084719986 | 688.645351960936 |
| 153 | 550.308766448997 | 521.639795163257 | 578.977737734737 |
| 154 | 492.985309235293 | 465.015309913885 | 520.955308556702 |
| 155 | 420.207279555455 | 393.468778537186 | 446.945780573724 |
| 156 | 465.6345009368 | 443.300414442841 | 487.96858743076 |
