| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.275592474736455 |
| beta | 0.0326929527336223 |
| gamma | 0.870729222265275 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 111.081808708867 | 3.91819129113328 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.331452141086 | 3.66854785891393 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.439012569901 | 3.56098743009895 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.323380345381 | 2.67661965461875 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.479680462729 | 1.52031953727079 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.667288314871 | 1.33271168512906 |
| 19 | 170 | 162.443243712473 | 7.55675628752684 |
| 20 | 170 | 165.529589613322 | 4.47041038667788 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.887712294251 | 4.11228770574931 |
| 22 | 133 | 136.318641448734 | -3.31864144873398 |
| 23 | 114 | 119.090610790114 | -5.09061079011418 |
| 24 | 140 | 133.988719950497 | 6.01128004950255 |
| 25 | 145 | 134.83036828992 | 10.1696317100803 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.705143441366 | 0.29485655863428 |
| 27 | 178 | 166.54082599966 | 11.4591740003402 |
| 28 | 163 | 161.749728378189 | 1.25027162181098 |
| 29 | 172 | 149.757507993041 | 22.2424920069588 |
| 30 | 178 | 185.647723596325 | -7.64772359632505 |
| 31 | 199 | 206.262153619028 | -7.2621536190276 |
| 32 | 199 | 203.180886325984 | -4.18088632598415 |
| 33 | 184 | 186.419252204205 | -2.41925220420509 |
| 34 | 162 | 158.14779913675 | 3.85220086325003 |
| 35 | 146 | 138.368728198326 | 7.63127180167442 |
| 36 | 166 | 169.141340932277 | -3.14134093227659 |
| 37 | 171 | 170.360941535351 | 0.639058464649196 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.438190472368 | 2.56180952763222 |
| 39 | 193 | 206.247937478341 | -13.2479374783412 |
| 40 | 181 | 185.960743337435 | -4.96074333743451 |
| 41 | 183 | 184.798362273962 | -1.79836227396214 |
| 42 | 218 | 195.684395505414 | 22.3156044945857 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.498397718798 | 2.50160228120197 |
| 44 | 242 | 229.00477178944 | 12.9952282105605 |
| 45 | 209 | 215.630984242778 | -6.63098424277786 |
| 46 | 191 | 186.28659737031 | 4.71340262968988 |
| 47 | 172 | 166.03764276114 | 5.96235723885997 |
| 48 | 194 | 192.842517670215 | 1.15748232978481 |
| 49 | 196 | 198.309951792614 | -2.30995179261404 |
| 50 | 196 | 206.984490574542 | -10.9844905745417 |
| 51 | 236 | 224.192965596171 | 11.8070344038286 |
| 52 | 235 | 214.06542383627 | 20.9345761637297 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.675239689626 | 6.32476031037368 |
| 54 | 243 | 256.737994926102 | -13.737994926102 |
| 55 | 264 | 268.358000825088 | -4.3580008250878 |
| 56 | 272 | 275.595138563008 | -3.59513856300822 |
| 57 | 237 | 240.950054518824 | -3.95005451882446 |
| 58 | 211 | 216.418708751082 | -5.41870875108197 |
| 59 | 180 | 191.302349202138 | -11.3023492021381 |
| 60 | 201 | 212.165209086809 | -11.1652090868092 |
| 61 | 204 | 211.884606924298 | -7.88460692429837 |
| 62 | 188 | 213.27850745062 | -25.2785074506199 |
| 63 | 235 | 241.844292266096 | -6.84429226609575 |
| 64 | 227 | 231.12664863371 | -4.12664863370961 |
| 65 | 234 | 222.847577264952 | 11.1524227350481 |
| 66 | 264 | 244.40358955613 | 19.59641044387 |
| 67 | 302 | 270.925430122294 | 31.0745698777058 |
| 68 | 293 | 288.463281003995 | 4.53671899600499 |
| 69 | 259 | 253.325564521037 | 5.67443547896335 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.457233710861 | 0.542766289138939 |
| 71 | 203 | 198.766723143807 | 4.23327685619279 |
| 72 | 229 | 226.325368143991 | 2.67463185600869 |
| 73 | 242 | 232.50769240068 | 9.49230759932021 |
| 74 | 233 | 226.155487496554 | 6.84451250344583 |
| 75 | 267 | 284.984109809787 | -17.9841098097872 |
| 76 | 269 | 271.954044414961 | -2.954044414961 |
| 77 | 270 | 274.414349879444 | -4.41434987944433 |
| 78 | 315 | 301.110875912755 | 13.8891240872446 |
| 79 | 364 | 337.481480217206 | 26.5185197827936 |
| 80 | 347 | 335.985533162038 | 11.0144668379621 |
| 81 | 312 | 297.836666071854 | 14.1633339281458 |
| 82 | 274 | 267.300445465088 | 6.69955453491218 |
| 83 | 237 | 236.992543135441 | 0.00745686455934447 |
| 84 | 278 | 266.900689163386 | 11.0993108366137 |
| 85 | 284 | 281.633925908283 | 2.36607409171705 |
| 86 | 277 | 269.9672458906 | 7.03275410940017 |
| 87 | 317 | 320.174999871827 | -3.17499987182669 |
| 88 | 313 | 321.276899149146 | -8.27689914914555 |
| 89 | 318 | 322.045741325617 | -4.04574132561669 |
| 90 | 374 | 367.951178474249 | 6.0488215257509 |
| 91 | 413 | 417.203225397332 | -4.20322539733178 |
| 92 | 405 | 394.606247713416 | 10.3937522865839 |
| 93 | 355 | 352.306655336866 | 2.69334466313444 |
| 94 | 306 | 308.449808881231 | -2.44980888123064 |
| 95 | 271 | 266.696337801511 | 4.30366219848918 |
| 96 | 306 | 309.394161372703 | -3.39416137270314 |
| 97 | 315 | 315.103179025905 | -0.103179025905092 |
| 98 | 301 | 304.405357956349 | -3.40535795634867 |
| 99 | 356 | 349.058201817869 | 6.94179818213104 |
| 100 | 348 | 349.292551021804 | -1.29255102180434 |
| 101 | 355 | 355.073176743193 | -0.0731767431929029 |
| 102 | 422 | 414.360922266094 | 7.63907773390565 |
| 103 | 465 | 462.091146643932 | 2.90885335606771 |
| 104 | 467 | 448.979705968486 | 18.0202940315135 |
| 105 | 404 | 397.63501038002 | 6.36498961998001 |
| 106 | 347 | 345.450978117796 | 1.5490218822041 |
| 107 | 305 | 304.243038614501 | 0.756961385499039 |
| 108 | 336 | 345.615242815442 | -9.61524281544217 |
| 109 | 340 | 352.616294292296 | -12.616294292296 |
| 110 | 318 | 334.810889595364 | -16.8108895953638 |
| 111 | 362 | 386.94137114357 | -24.9413711435703 |
| 112 | 348 | 372.190854481382 | -24.1908544813824 |
| 113 | 363 | 372.090123849997 | -9.09012384999716 |
| 114 | 435 | 435.498537075609 | -0.498537075609363 |
| 115 | 491 | 478.418383525412 | 12.5816164745876 |
| 116 | 505 | 476.297736428689 | 28.7022635713114 |
| 117 | 404 | 417.219138602201 | -13.2191386022007 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.436906440642 | 4.56309355935764 |
| 119 | 310 | 311.87647452998 | -1.87647452997993 |
| 120 | 337 | 345.975126181845 | -8.97512618184476 |
| 121 | 360 | 350.643068831254 | 9.35693116874586 |
| 122 | 342 | 334.994586512654 | 7.0054134873464 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.685878839785 | 15.3141211602154 |
| 124 | 396 | 386.498863412815 | 9.50113658718544 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.130739664598 | 12.8692603354022 |
| 126 | 472 | 491.604975308886 | -19.6049753088864 |
| 127 | 548 | 543.780022319876 | 4.21997768012352 |
| 128 | 559 | 549.935293999603 | 9.064706000397 |
| 129 | 463 | 449.638769888319 | 13.3612301116814 |
| 130 | 407 | 399.913027267264 | 7.0869727327364 |
| 131 | 362 | 348.397215116608 | 13.6027848833916 |
| 132 | 405 | 386.652093911441 | 18.3479060885591 |
| 133 | 417 | 413.916764563467 | 3.08323543653262 |
| 134 | 391 | 392.451160571742 | -1.45116057174226 |
| 135 | 419 | 460.1705013673 | -41.1705013673001 |
| 136 | 461 | 435.421790272072 | 25.5782097279275 |
| 137 | 472 | 465.095112731696 | 6.9048872683037 |
| 138 | 535 | 534.352710870328 | 0.647289129671663 |
| 139 | 622 | 616.735355637604 | 5.26464436239564 |
| 140 | 606 | 627.55104808255 | -21.5510480825502 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.133147348624 | -2.13314734862371 |
| 142 | 461 | 446.162802943524 | 14.8371970564758 |
| 143 | 390 | 395.452817646611 | -5.45281764661092 |
| 144 | 432 | 434.572462781258 | -2.57246278125848 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 447.055931344911 | 427.306133026707 | 466.805729663116 |
| 146 | 419.712279855694 | 399.132585244962 | 440.291974466426 |
| 147 | 464.867131095757 | 442.963034360716 | 486.771227830799 |
| 148 | 496.083937621018 | 472.832900505227 | 519.334974736809 |
| 149 | 507.532637500566 | 483.137513327867 | 531.927761673264 |
| 150 | 575.450895961043 | 548.708256350201 | 602.193535571885 |
| 151 | 666.592293420411 | 636.628829419515 | 696.555757421306 |
| 152 | 657.913718340462 | 627.18208471999 | 688.645351960935 |
| 153 | 550.308766448997 | 521.63979516326 | 578.977737734734 |
| 154 | 492.985309235293 | 465.015309913887 | 520.955308556698 |
| 155 | 420.207279555455 | 393.468778537189 | 446.945780573722 |
| 156 | 465.6345009368 | 443.300414442843 | 487.968587430758 |
