| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||
| Iteration | sar1 | sar2 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | -0.3452 | -0.2642 | -0.4036 |
| (p-val) | (9e-04 ) | (9e-04 ) | (1e-04 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0 | -0.0682 | -0.6626 |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (0.3141 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 0 | 0 | -0.6858 |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.557231696494144 |
| 3.90920325200834 |
| 5.24023779912797 |
| 41.5013804117254 |
| -47.9015070227653 |
| 30.1918295554497 |
| -56.3839684579741 |
| 9.56588441537268 |
| 50.8197738944262 |
| -80.7500591354504 |
| 37.5929776667104 |
| 18.3047696040457 |
| -41.9097897808014 |
| -2.83920661135407 |
| -11.7827045880632 |
| 10.5972861610459 |
| 21.3472040809064 |
| -31.2358088382059 |
| 8.75469256493867 |
| 47.7247542444516 |
| -48.2308544663822 |
| 63.5651130319767 |
| -36.0960046333653 |
| -51.2493189764481 |
| 22.8076838382169 |
| 48.6868088543771 |
| -6.54393106507766 |
| 6.74526896996661 |
| -6.68326003278496 |
| -6.27607424609265 |
| 26.0617785519408 |
| 6.29324043663598 |
| -14.7748853435046 |
| -4.49216422123249 |
| -35.9603923048227 |
| 16.5864611762998 |
| 7.3382235241145 |
| -0.703853272436559 |
| 28.5549224253504 |
| -6.755295509744 |
| -23.3036341293248 |
| 14.895525939018 |
| 17.7088991562841 |
| -29.2656360186274 |
| 0.555168994095819 |
| 4.00986851764866 |
| -0.359675981634773 |
| 4.14638822386869 |
| -29.2297546014073 |
| 47.9830981324859 |
| 8.61582236779361 |
| -32.0259525980367 |
| -4.29924419161782 |
| 8.27713285927334 |
| 17.6587784865697 |
| 12.0032953900644 |
| -8.5055911648772 |
| 13.0359517329848 |
| 4.9947405889534 |
| 27.148583972806 |
| -21.1809489194374 |
| -10.5175237839732 |
| -23.6323899904433 |
| -5.10060182027478 |
| -25.6076422519038 |
| 26.2198452123684 |
| 8.4162584854718 |
| -7.888009304169 |
| -35.7622360208676 |
| 28.2747642927677 |
| -14.2530754234448 |
| 9.32454837919632 |
| -14.9718418652241 |
| 15.7123470326632 |
| 21.8740740309726 |
| -39.2091356721788 |
| 30.2589898816577 |
| -23.6867830927013 |
| 37.0214225726764 |
| -27.3470608727711 |
| 36.7675333633582 |
| -18.8046029755921 |
| 1.52085064067571 |
| -28.945820449421 |
| 22.0434362145837 |
| 22.5620233276206 |
| -40.1630901688608 |
| 56.2586199403984 |
| -19.8140777474491 |
| -28.4485782438269 |
| -18.3979965638231 |
| 20.4823673366105 |
| 8.99810507928106 |
| 27.2897907855839 |
| -26.3030619791471 |
| -11.2263104827911 |
| -8.1033047531084 |
| 4.37832020087124 |
| 21.5991262122215 |
| 7.84113431440262 |
| 9.73805325765801 |
| -42.5209625650922 |
| 19.2376780415687 |
| 9.00034706353605 |
| 7.42330846491786 |
| 16.4529574984259 |
| -17.7012012475948 |
| 34.2622298817003 |
| 15.5181274605015 |
| -43.1795613988565 |
| -9.06896534365717 |
| -23.6742666017654 |
| 17.3319209423335 |
| -2.3308231598949 |
| -23.8639194753041 |
| -26.5420151468629 |
| 29.615221987645 |
| -22.1801186794161 |
| 56.9952442484951 |
| -36.7186120612485 |
| -2.27348765790265 |
| -10.120401606551 |
| -23.8991745999512 |
| 47.4646543295594 |
| 18.9258664737508 |
| -14.1685650976983 |
| 14.4853039204736 |
| -1.38363611965634 |
| 14.137563432284 |
| -12.0272528108068 |
| -39.1031142657635 |
| 17.2838039568581 |
| -24.3305139693883 |
| 83.1817057947502 |
| -66.684369314005 |
| 11.205055202028 |
| 46.9598898326752 |
| -52.7602005061675 |
| 27.100145529606 |
| -36.2158342603169 |
| 54.1118885530122 |
| -26.5026297590631 |
| 38.1955011593322 |
| -27.7375002347847 |
| 11.628323831895 |
| -49.6658283603419 |
| 7.38177169051643 |
| 10.8558645944089 |
| 15.4323947935703 |
| -27.1233973791139 |
| -8.51348465486002 |
| 10.9205333197415 |
| -2.80555735437533 |
| -13.2838745905892 |
| 14.973393722422 |
| -3.94798005309149 |
| -11.3376897256284 |
| 26.6367834933352 |
| 1.81681437979238 |
| 28.873015191433 |
| -55.4900661707394 |
| 12.645797756916 |
| 52.9083560386221 |
| -46.5064623497653 |
| -5.82759192574333 |
| 36.5000110386116 |
| -34.0354298145954 |
| 30.2909826010195 |
| 4.03023049969149 |
| -54.8826706434074 |
| 32.9169878816496 |
| 4.6639994246979 |
| 9.23291845672327 |
| -27.2341636457182 |
| -4.2773397434382 |
| 21.487545220536 |
| -2.17256351274866 |
| 7.16556732893932 |
| -30.500594273067 |
| 17.5761820584171 |
| -14.8156252194971 |
| 16.4597060880059 |
| 8.1323335907387 |
| -26.7483038678045 |
| 59.3822462415024 |
| -84.1487789195356 |
| 63.5651352241497 |
| -15.7725297764145 |
| -0.310004835171664 |
| -27.6886202420749 |
| 27.0169818447499 |
| -21.8469240497748 |
| 39.4371081318072 |
| -46.0449151263745 |
| 49.704399885071 |
| -34.9060062223897 |
| 31.8596087411508 |
| -35.0276636675751 |
| 10.5707352715189 |
| 3.55722978966425 |
| -3.41227552707061 |
| -6.72680105102743 |
| -7.61574807761834 |
| -3.20147780160694 |
| -3.97885823463041 |
| 44.8431720424565 |
| -8.69814283326754 |
| 14.1294663646379 |
| -13.4415332504023 |
| -14.8735384548544 |
| 6.16532849925864 |
| -2.44943805107429 |
| 6.84798594931937 |
| -22.8843561769748 |
| 23.4962708518916 |
| -19.3688095505132 |
| 12.8766706206337 |
| -0.964458963822427 |
| 5.22684130348615 |
| -15.641732853968 |
| 54.3637297918294 |
| -29.0741023992216 |
| -21.9916536856822 |
| 33.9995488020266 |
| -13.3008952584045 |
| -40.0913398681975 |
| 3.26510911464345 |
| 0.84955412516514 |
| 39.3555068027139 |
| -27.3306399115825 |
| -1.31115020940199 |
| 9.02126281186182 |
| 45.598607889834 |
| -34.379244902102 |
| -26.8201008777678 |
| 24.324742188523 |
| -11.8000714336607 |
| -0.756654939606396 |
| -5.12528944430309 |
| 7.35398567929192 |
| 0.110010153686308 |
| 14.7423012722343 |
| 4.78338686656967 |
| -24.4515332829292 |
| 17.9782546676922 |
| 16.9011436505763 |
| -25.1148792421117 |
| 30.4976357339354 |
| -36.4189714307519 |
| -19.760243861239 |
| 22.9811760954247 |
| 30.4524310217307 |
| 4.10896483742847 |
| -14.8855086019416 |
| -6.06671009114152 |
| -10.063934998604 |
| 24.8447138348609 |
| -4.49149001184062 |
| -20.1532332055166 |
| 16.5451206332869 |
| -14.2778764262176 |
| 28.0400361522779 |
| -21.9854430476097 |
| 9.4105688201921 |
| -35.0042908848065 |
| 7.90195026108942 |
| -13.0723279441974 |
| 8.16791574940475 |
| 9.63128727271781 |
| 18.6256880334934 |
| -11.5428057672403 |
| -19.6185640592093 |
| -5.72894381100756 |
| 30.7872614087936 |
| -17.3208221846515 |
| 20.2196328924614 |
| -26.7723277217845 |
| 17.0022137806164 |
| -19.9825436721395 |
| 4.15320407860603 |
| 11.1069110341036 |
| 3.44669402618916 |
| -3.23272401481776 |
| -6.35898742856067 |
| 2.892351575162 |
| -30.0201171390649 |
| 27.9275064000158 |
| -3.67213335720651 |
| 19.6123369405842 |
| -21.7838909368543 |
| 17.7180594419353 |
| -16.3026417653093 |
| 5.77123362063261 |
| 2.56554616483392 |
| -0.192133169414484 |
| 11.8456912381713 |
| -34.7016612497513 |
| 52.1211605780452 |
| -16.3078751653349 |
| 22.3052446321055 |
| -30.1564349668769 |
| -14.9280518437787 |
| 4.61114232501236 |
| 22.4882361266611 |
| 1.09009053920527 |
| 0.0614532781924272 |
| -20.8137190396763 |
| 47.6197521139844 |
| -34.1854693087715 |
| 41.3172849633336 |
| -0.849714158649384 |
| 84.1690001491956 |
| -129.969405868118 |
| 31.5834698134987 |
| -46.7902385482456 |
| 18.0243825955473 |
| -24.3594761475484 |
| 4.97254822408866 |
| -3.46917020307875 |
| -2.50478019339899 |
| 11.9251459614874 |
| -21.1746682107595 |
| 16.7849881822043 |
| -6.39741479254407 |
| -6.54678219259751 |
| -7.96715588848908 |
| 14.7588834572368 |
| -15.0794562531996 |
| 63.054060481338 |
| -9.08000977259072 |
| -6.13041984768447 |
| -36.9805612146578 |
| 27.8112044233894 |
| 5.67793876986249 |
| -19.5936664190888 |
| -11.0329619905369 |
| 43.478801988505 |
| -46.9933402805032 |
| -24.5652461112227 |
| 42.5146148167043 |
| 18.2774541082081 |
| -44.1758605817466 |
| 47.1331371137614 |
| -36.4110836344092 |
| 21.0578656509222 |
| -11.2780322292103 |
| -37.2404282342603 |
| 46.7397567497042 |
| -26.5652030712522 |
| 38.0972302082141 |
| -22.7281871276933 |
| 25.0741726277829 |
| -44.3758128402436 |
| 75.5890399881526 |
| -63.6315879414297 |
| 24.1822050576839 |
| -15.335161526275 |
| 10.3220740867622 |
| 24.9962281493587 |
