Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
timeY[t]F[t]95% LB95% UBp-value
(H0: Y[t] = F[t])
P(F[t]>Y[t-1])P(F[t]>Y[t-s])P(F[t]>Y[60])
4869-------
4960-------
5056-------
5158-------
5250-------
5351-------
5453-------
5537-------
5622-------
5755-------
5870-------
5962-------
6058-------
613953.001235.771870.23060.05560.28480.2130.2848
624952.400135.170669.62950.34950.93630.34110.262
635865.799148.569783.02850.18750.9720.81250.8125
644750.799933.570568.02930.33280.20640.53630.2064
654251.199333.969968.42870.14770.68360.5090.2196
666259.199741.970376.42920.3750.97480.75970.5543
673938.799121.569756.02860.49090.00420.58110.0145
684028.399411.1745.62890.09350.11390.76674e-04
697254.799537.570172.02890.02520.95390.49090.3579
707062.600345.370979.82980.20.14250.20.6996
715448.400931.171465.63030.26210.0070.06090.1374
726555.400638.171272.630.13740.56330.38370.3837


Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time% S.E.PEMAPEsMAPESq.EMSERMSEScaledEMASE
610.1659-0.3590.3590.3044196.033400-1.10011.1001
620.1678-0.06940.21420.185711.5604103.796910.1881-0.26710.6836
630.1336-0.13450.18760.165860.825889.47329.459-0.61280.66
640.173-0.08080.16090.143814.439570.71488.4092-0.29860.5696
650.1717-0.2190.17250.154584.627673.49738.5731-0.72280.6003
660.14850.04520.15130.13657.841462.55477.90920.220.5369
670.22660.00520.13040.11770.040353.62417.32280.01580.4625
680.30950.290.15040.1454134.573163.74277.98390.91150.5186
690.16040.23890.16020.1594295.857989.53339.46221.35150.6111
700.14040.10570.15480.154654.755186.05559.27660.58140.6082
710.18160.10370.15010.150531.350381.08239.00460.43990.5929
720.15870.14770.14990.151292.149182.00459.05560.75420.6063