| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.290822481652029 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 12873 | 13328 | -455 |
| 3 | 14000 | 13195.6757708483 | 804.324229151673 |
| 4 | 13477 | 13429.5913392231 | 47.4086607769277 |
| 5 | 14237 | 13443.378843602 | 793.621156397983 |
| 6 | 13674 | 13674.1817177972 | -0.181717797231613 |
| 7 | 13529 | 13674.1288701765 | -145.128870176481 |
| 8 | 14058 | 13631.9221319924 | 426.077868007598 |
| 9 | 12975 | 13755.8351549434 | -780.835154943377 |
| 10 | 14326 | 13528.7507374216 | 797.249262578402 |
| 11 | 14008 | 13760.6087464599 | 247.391253540101 |
| 12 | 16193 | 13832.5556847534 | 2360.44431524656 |
| 13 | 14483 | 14519.0259583149 | -36.0259583148654 |
| 14 | 14011 | 14508.5487997138 | -497.548799713844 |
| 15 | 15057 | 14363.8504230381 | 693.149576961923 |
| 16 | 14884 | 14565.4339031662 | 318.566096833803 |
| 17 | 15414 | 14658.0800860176 | 755.919913982396 |
| 18 | 14440 | 14877.9185913322 | -437.918591332153 |
| 19 | 14900 | 14750.5620198394 | 149.437980160625 |
| 20 | 15074 | 14794.0219440828 | 279.978055917245 |
| 21 | 14442 | 14875.4458571127 | -433.445857112718 |
| 22 | 15307 | 14749.3900572854 | 557.609942714593 |
| 23 | 14938 | 14911.5555646195 | 26.4444353804902 |
| 24 | 17193 | 14919.2462009428 | 2273.75379905725 |
| 25 | 15528 | 15580.5049234503 | -52.5049234503076 |
| 26 | 14765 | 15565.2353113135 | -800.23531131354 |
| 27 | 15838 | 15332.5088921718 | 505.491107828248 |
| 28 | 15723 | 15479.5170706034 | 243.482929396603 |
| 29 | 16150 | 15550.3273803704 | 599.672619629577 |
| 30 | 15486 | 15724.7256597899 | -238.72565978987 |
| 31 | 15986 | 15655.2988709758 | 330.701129024237 |
| 32 | 15983 | 15751.4741940037 | 231.525805996282 |
| 33 | 15692 | 15818.80710347 | -126.807103470042 |
| 34 | 16490 | 15781.9287469478 | 708.071253052221 |
| 35 | 15686 | 15987.8517859469 | -301.851785946887 |
| 36 | 18897 | 15900.0665004667 | 2996.93349953328 |
| 37 | 16316 | 16771.6421381471 | -455.642138147083 |
| 38 | 15636 | 16639.1311607859 | -1003.13116078591 |
| 39 | 17163 | 16347.3980671837 | 815.601932816326 |
| 40 | 16534 | 16584.5934453255 | -50.5934453255104 |
| 41 | 16518 | 16569.8797340006 | -51.8797340006204 |
| 42 | 16375 | 16554.7919410111 | -179.791941011114 |
| 43 | 16290 | 16502.5044025452 | -212.504402545226 |
| 44 | 16352 | 16440.703344835 | -88.7033448350412 |
| 45 | 15943 | 16414.9064179593 | -471.906417959279 |
| 46 | 16362 | 16277.6654223808 | 84.3345776191582 |
| 47 | 16393 | 16302.1918135331 | 90.8081864668784 |
| 48 | 19051 | 16328.6008756757 | 2722.39912432426 |
| 49 | 16747 | 17120.335745059 | -373.33574505903 |
| 50 | 16320 | 17011.7613171916 | -691.761317191555 |
| 51 | 17910 | 16810.581574215 | 1099.41842578497 |
| 52 | 16961 | 17130.3171691758 | -169.317169175782 |
| 53 | 17480 | 17081.0759298498 | 398.924070150217 |
| 54 | 17049 | 17197.0920179216 | -148.092017921597 |
| 55 | 16879 | 17154.0235297568 | -275.023529756781 |
| 56 | 17473 | 17074.0405043202 | 398.959495679785 |
| 57 | 16998 | 17190.0668949325 | -192.066894932454 |
| 58 | 17307 | 17134.209523905 | 172.790476095 |
| 59 | 17418 | 17184.4608789688 | 233.539121031215 |
| 60 | 20169 | 17252.3793057099 | 2916.62069429008 |
| 61 | 17871 | 18100.598174061 | -229.598174061022 |
| 62 | 17226 | 18033.8258632978 | -807.825863297821 |
| 63 | 19062 | 17798.8919409909 | 1263.10805900914 |
| 64 | 17804 | 18166.2321613066 | -362.232161306572 |
| 65 | 19100 | 18060.8869052212 | 1039.11309477878 |
| 66 | 18522 | 18363.0843541619 | 158.915645838097 |
| 67 | 18060 | 18409.3005966579 | -349.300596657875 |
| 68 | 18869 | 18307.7161302953 | 561.283869704701 |
| 69 | 18127 | 18470.9500981941 | -343.950098194073 |
| 70 | 18871 | 18370.9216770728 | 500.078322927187 |
| 71 | 18890 | 18516.3556959669 | 373.644304033118 |
| 72 | 21263 | 18625.0198597209 | 2637.98014027906 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 19392.2037906657 | 17688.4677666974 | 21095.9398146339 |
| 74 | 19392.2037906657 | 17617.880943627 | 21166.5266377043 |
| 75 | 19392.2037906657 | 17549.9967741554 | 21234.4108071759 |
| 76 | 19392.2037906657 | 17484.5267168831 | 21299.8808644482 |
| 77 | 19392.2037906657 | 17421.2301875974 | 21363.1773937339 |
| 78 | 19392.2037906657 | 17359.9040907818 | 21424.5034905495 |
| 79 | 19392.2037906657 | 17300.3751178762 | 21484.0324634552 |
| 80 | 19392.2037906657 | 17242.493967815 | 21541.9136135163 |
| 81 | 19392.2037906657 | 17186.1309340681 | 21598.2766472632 |
| 82 | 19392.2037906657 | 17131.1724828831 | 21653.2350984482 |
| 83 | 19392.2037906657 | 17077.5185634849 | 21706.8890178465 |
| 84 | 19392.2037906657 | 17025.0804674978 | 21759.3271138335 |
