| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.257593917038808 |
| beta | 0.275620602016761 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 14000 | 12418 | 1582 |
| 4 | 13477 | 12482.8327141107 | 994.16728588928 |
| 5 | 14237 | 12466.8273751727 | 1770.17262482731 |
| 6 | 13674 | 12776.3953443526 | 897.604655647427 |
| 7 | 13529 | 12924.9234187953 | 604.076581204739 |
| 8 | 14058 | 13040.7287909644 | 1017.27120903563 |
| 9 | 12975 | 13335.195000895 | -360.195000895035 |
| 10 | 14326 | 13249.2611009339 | 1076.73889906607 |
| 11 | 14008 | 13609.9191462536 | 398.080853746354 |
| 12 | 16193 | 13824.0220276343 | 2368.97797236571 |
| 13 | 14483 | 14714.0091672295 | -231.009167229457 |
| 14 | 14011 | 14917.8542024259 | -906.854202425859 |
| 15 | 15057 | 14883.2206602842 | 173.779339715784 |
| 16 | 14884 | 15139.2897638107 | -255.289763810746 |
| 17 | 15414 | 15266.7081649983 | 147.291835001659 |
| 18 | 14440 | 15508.2865909109 | -1068.28659091085 |
| 19 | 14900 | 15360.8929937452 | -460.89299374519 |
| 20 | 15074 | 15337.2377238923 | -263.237723892255 |
| 21 | 14442 | 15345.807847159 | -903.80784715902 |
| 22 | 15307 | 15125.2022815364 | 181.797718463571 |
| 23 | 14938 | 15197.1494149678 | -259.149414967833 |
| 24 | 17193 | 15137.1121095623 | 2055.88789043767 |
| 25 | 15528 | 15819.3786518188 | -291.378651818759 |
| 26 | 14765 | 15876.3162540946 | -1111.31625409464 |
| 27 | 15838 | 15643.1414745699 | 194.858525430074 |
| 28 | 15723 | 15760.2639755474 | -37.2639755473865 |
| 29 | 16150 | 15814.9474574309 | 335.052542569112 |
| 30 | 15486 | 15989.3255338358 | -503.325533835779 |
| 31 | 15986 | 15912.0073154503 | 73.9926845497248 |
| 32 | 15983 | 15988.6561050291 | -5.65610502909112 |
| 33 | 15692 | 16044.3862776906 | -352.386277690613 |
| 34 | 16490 | 15985.7820789511 | 504.217921048861 |
| 35 | 15686 | 16183.632471124 | -497.632471124001 |
| 36 | 18897 | 16088.0812915113 | 2808.91870848873 |
| 37 | 16316 | 17043.7057276807 | -727.705727680743 |
| 38 | 15636 | 17036.6514323675 | -1400.65143236754 |
| 39 | 17163 | 16756.8066998242 | 406.193300175819 |
| 40 | 16534 | 16971.2331687193 | -437.233168719285 |
| 41 | 16518 | 16937.3553459562 | -419.355345956166 |
| 42 | 16375 | 16878.3092708515 | -503.309270851496 |
| 43 | 16290 | 16761.9031278949 | -471.903127894908 |
| 44 | 16352 | 16620.0827481544 | -268.082748154437 |
| 45 | 15943 | 16511.7318683831 | -568.731868383074 |
| 46 | 16362 | 16285.5566705485 | 76.443329451502 |
| 47 | 16393 | 16231.0020171665 | 161.997982833487 |
| 48 | 19051 | 16209.9872857143 | 2841.01271428569 |
| 49 | 16747 | 17080.7772146152 | -333.777214615184 |
| 50 | 16320 | 17110.0629916906 | -790.062991690618 |
| 51 | 17910 | 16965.7192853769 | 944.280714623124 |
| 52 | 16961 | 17335.174189917 | -374.174189917027 |
| 53 | 17480 | 17338.4374407454 | 141.562559254551 |
| 54 | 17049 | 17484.6020265021 | -435.602026502056 |
| 55 | 16879 | 17451.1655701821 | -572.165570182075 |
| 56 | 17473 | 17341.9284555772 | 131.071544422801 |
| 57 | 16998 | 17423.1467864092 | -425.146786409223 |
| 58 | 17307 | 17330.9020061457 | -23.9020061457049 |
| 59 | 17418 | 17340.3184413362 | 77.6815586637858 |
| 60 | 20169 | 17381.4174349923 | 2787.58256500765 |
| 61 | 17871 | 18318.4837616173 | -447.483761617277 |
| 62 | 17226 | 18390.446143938 | -1164.44614393801 |
| 63 | 19062 | 18195.0498086845 | 866.950191315489 |
| 64 | 17804 | 18584.4807073157 | -780.480707315681 |
| 65 | 19100 | 18494.1307097858 | 605.869290214159 |
| 66 | 18522 | 18803.9116617852 | -281.911661785176 |
| 67 | 18060 | 18864.9904230218 | -804.990423021758 |
| 68 | 18869 | 18734.1744138352 | 134.825586164796 |
| 69 | 18127 | 18855.0216644003 | -728.021664400261 |
| 70 | 18871 | 18701.9164910761 | 169.083508923904 |
| 71 | 18890 | 18791.9047765196 | 98.0952234804063 |
| 72 | 21263 | 18870.5714948147 | 2392.42850518534 |
| 73 | 19547 | 19710.1026048817 | -163.102604881682 |
| 74 | 18450 | 19879.7644563812 | -1429.76445638118 |
| 75 | 20254 | 19621.6312307592 | 632.368769240813 |
| 76 | 19240 | 19939.5880185196 | -699.588018519578 |
| 77 | 20216 | 19864.7713565909 | 351.2286434091 |
| 78 | 19420 | 20085.5752728284 | -665.57527282841 |
| 79 | 19415 | 19997.2020454161 | -582.202045416136 |
| 80 | 20018 | 19888.969962505 | 129.03003749502 |
| 81 | 18652 | 19973.1078369356 | -1321.10783693559 |
| 82 | 19978 | 19589.9027501806 | 388.09724981941 |
| 83 | 19509 | 19674.5326992168 | -165.532699216819 |
| 84 | 21971 | 19604.7984189795 | 2366.20158102052 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 20355.2195194772 | 18446.2449522389 | 22264.1940867154 |
| 86 | 20496.1214862163 | 18486.7294041016 | 22505.513568331 |
| 87 | 20637.0234529555 | 18487.7137610752 | 22786.3331448358 |
| 88 | 20777.9254196947 | 18448.4298683926 | 23107.4209709967 |
| 89 | 20918.8273864339 | 18370.2106155599 | 23467.4441573078 |
| 90 | 21059.729353173 | 18255.6315116774 | 23863.8271946687 |
| 91 | 21200.6313199122 | 18107.7620868899 | 24293.5005529345 |
| 92 | 21341.5332866514 | 17929.6698078756 | 24753.3967654272 |
| 93 | 21482.4352533906 | 17724.1616590786 | 25240.7088477025 |
| 94 | 21623.3372201298 | 17493.6879713908 | 25752.9864688687 |
| 95 | 21764.2391868689 | 17240.3361473615 | 26288.1422263764 |
| 96 | 21905.1411536081 | 16965.86523716 | 26844.4170700562 |
