| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 426.113 | 426.113 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 383.703 | 422.43058089727 | -1.22778204167196 | -8.23953862249655 | -0.101424424077867 |
| 3 | 232.444 | 388.888628085603 | -9.30939096040775 | -39.9167087477547 | -0.421942953074551 |
| 4 | 70.939 | 318.12796333905 | -21.6077725997887 | -63.1934985304344 | -0.680736935118892 |
| 5 | 226.731 | 281.287663163194 | -24.1492707144154 | -10.9965910229807 | -0.161656725577329 |
| 6 | 947.293 | 399.503890834297 | -3.77722185993417 | 135.692116388635 | 1.5233864830828 |
| 7 | 611.281 | 450.574342375668 | 3.09592869860009 | -4.75913262796236 | 0.607452169319615 |
| 8 | 158.047 | 402.118300343104 | -2.65288758451661 | -79.6101297687084 | -0.598952781152273 |
| 9 | 33.999 | 329.969757695067 | -9.63811569018651 | -59.9903291052414 | -0.852494082896243 |
| 10 | 37.028 | 267.583025613597 | -14.4673856574897 | -39.5064276944382 | -0.684872016400072 |
| 11 | 388.3 | 272.840177614596 | -12.8079599204467 | 39.2839418845318 | 0.271132356440215 |
| 12 | 506.652 | 301.910512011823 | -9.54573334463842 | 32.5648217604013 | 0.608847452437744 |
| 13 | 392.25 | 294.070117625847 | -9.41566231213755 | 78.989309805482 | 0.0649529635273249 |
| 14 | 180.818 | 269.406767148741 | -10.4580056748216 | -21.4722333938634 | -0.246744020662749 |
| 15 | 198.296 | 249.543724284882 | -11.0597267304049 | -14.3981920495268 | -0.138455557655481 |
| 16 | 217.465 | 241.682602138826 | -10.8663628854904 | -37.2987699573685 | 0.0490814635412489 |
| 17 | 275.562 | 245.719292531536 | -10.0102097818098 | -35.4169148634693 | 0.243522719884406 |
| 18 | 1030.944 | 322.546162446909 | -5.247579164539 | 301.627670295162 | 1.50962337727476 |
| 19 | 57.47 | 296.399070561036 | -6.34645569395965 | -134.759924956842 | -0.384732603309033 |
| 20 | 136.452 | 275.570984818975 | -7.07926885393568 | -62.7329753058673 | -0.280936319401851 |
| 21 | 556.277 | 300.431986423015 | -5.51796232973536 | 78.4162880242061 | 0.650164006182518 |
| 22 | 213.361 | 295.462527659838 | -5.49196875580096 | -85.2975412895613 | 0.0116732088979578 |
| 23 | 274.482 | 286.674704248864 | -5.6439955431832 | 7.92134573307045 | -0.073231804785691 |
| 24 | 220.553 | 271.933257900865 | -6.05614965273339 | 7.71301470463787 | -0.214089435284997 |
| 25 | 236.71 | 257.285502020207 | -6.46636795863354 | 50.8041218620759 | -0.257773360045971 |
| 26 | 260.642 | 251.620504212793 | -6.43085353470923 | 3.45446291141971 | 0.0204987536724722 |
| 27 | 2763.544 | 467.5973708109 | 3.0172992498245 | 828.541602674988 | 5.44463949446787 |
| 28 | 213.923 | 487.149709613652 | 3.70353156330861 | -383.271854453658 | 0.408670422804022 |
| 29 | 169.861 | 477.979444554415 | 3.17700004181101 | -220.194320308653 | -0.326172664373414 |
| 30 | 403.064 | 446.477994049947 | 1.77275515456207 | 200.401051974761 | -0.903138152574313 |
| 31 | 449.594 | 452.902146704979 | 1.95980203124041 | -36.9388548131616 | 0.124390680226185 |
| 32 | 406.167 | 458.417234201525 | 2.10211580191516 | -78.6289122852068 | 0.0974347651542465 |
| 33 | 206.893 | 435.013957033882 | 1.08372740954378 | -34.3575124816642 | -0.714818396966972 |
| 34 | 156.187 | 416.798653482346 | 0.313291041507498 | -110.743516003806 | -0.552237662085757 |
| 35 | 257.102 | 400.515161264507 | -0.352050976119611 | -11.6176384275961 | -0.485022254130439 |
| 36 | 62.156 | 373.220512791488 | -1.45153838082038 | -90.5288396846237 | -0.810290942115332 |
| 37 | 662.883 | 391.250368365171 | -0.606812615358229 | 101.902282702864 | 0.625013878767424 |
| 38 | 251.422 | 405.164924578287 | -0.000461074731326061 | -275.542560399632 | 0.450407976944116 |
| 39 | 171.328 | 334.053199900407 | -2.89128155093946 | 422.72186132168 | -2.17107659778516 |
| 40 | 350.089 | 346.702131209406 | -2.26578635533592 | -124.545368762635 | 0.474757508865641 |
| 41 | 221.588 | 349.166206437788 | -2.07558185779478 | -166.782201534885 | 0.145471841574263 |
| 42 | 4.813 | 310.557078558077 | -3.54948112084019 | -0.375930325492305 | -1.13273559413623 |
| 43 | 183.186 | 295.016532245731 | -4.03570715674283 | -10.7895222181638 | -0.374663922202488 |
| 44 | 190.379 | 283.702815010324 | -4.33258417877679 | -31.5569367437148 | -0.228954223794503 |
| 45 | 223.166 | 273.73421326463 | -4.56400075268858 | -2.4433529689114 | -0.17833068400401 |
| 46 | 232.669 | 270.703134686704 | -4.50057189613194 | -51.1916987733923 | 0.0487424918441047 |
| 47 | 356.725 | 270.696040239142 | -4.31263760539677 | 47.2832662358432 | 0.143500571528958 |
| 48 | 109.215 | 264.416581118523 | -4.39643507646591 | -138.164837824343 | -0.0631115224852221 |
| 49 | 475.834 | 266.484894980027 | -4.11245736225912 | 152.993260483795 | 0.20923841213862 |
| 50 | 315.955 | 277.7466095051 | -3.44631921514678 | -95.0056998278237 | 0.494941189862336 |
| 51 | 694.87 | 277.962094530967 | -3.28982607226225 | 385.308848380565 | 0.117506767715016 |
| 52 | 8.95 | 265.316904672384 | -3.68727779781171 | -175.684700944527 | -0.300129979819782 |
| 53 | 278.741 | 268.17663473693 | -3.40932633086205 | -45.9269800905472 | 0.210156319602682 |
| 54 | 308.16 | 266.964065234809 | -3.31588587141746 | 22.2318630455301 | 0.0705485887828727 |
| 55 | 207.533 | 260.116356751623 | -3.46656665937337 | -22.0905798325124 | -0.113434672836386 |
| 56 | 192.797 | 253.539462676059 | -3.59972281322425 | -33.8978473979794 | -0.0998626656697937 |
| 57 | 601.162 | 273.368806115796 | -2.59295543775186 | 125.749860711853 | 0.751618306977053 |
| 58 | 289.714 | 279.557719086586 | -2.21397158959459 | -65.4634449628423 | 0.281329505206383 |
| 59 | 293.671 | 277.259771288077 | -2.21761605866117 | 17.1325322631356 | -0.00268403818839343 |
| 60 | 386.688 | 293.399957768298 | -1.41435177997085 | -63.7708749073643 | 0.584836882117792 |
| 61 | 699.645 | 313.755115438035 | -0.452502836624441 | 200.386941515389 | 0.691745311409073 |
| 62 | 85.094 | 308.243444029296 | -0.67496201604623 | -180.022066480715 | -0.160819452313993 |
| 63 | 131.812 | 269.057378833289 | -2.35791751756763 | 191.375432775668 | -1.22562316282209 |
| 64 | 645.285 | 299.052887179913 | -0.949096393372437 | 69.9042626795146 | 1.03067862250557 |
| 65 | 197.549 | 298.864559525197 | -0.916013802397039 | -107.815040578149 | 0.024243050450729 |
| 66 | 308.174 | 297.572942483458 | -0.932345647019433 | 13.8087618344305 | -0.0119649207672465 |
| 67 | 86.58 | 284.838748705814 | -1.44577805945684 | -97.5566980734251 | -0.375634826159597 |
| 68 | 242.205 | 284.307855606113 | -1.40594399689657 | -49.8995999055869 | 0.029084418114991 |
| 69 | 238.502 | 272.742313480166 | -1.84873722451545 | 52.2008431685524 | -0.322476856310696 |
| 70 | 187.881 | 268.959274806989 | -1.93314592880758 | -64.6555264438232 | -0.0612743214923426 |
| 71 | 140.321 | 259.355476238758 | -2.26842355219112 | -54.0959450008723 | -0.242353778203884 |
| 72 | 440.31 | 274.390485954038 | -1.51049874451043 | 19.9626466489482 | 0.545029386787249 |
| 73 | 421.403 | 270.274800671132 | -1.62482384712521 | 173.042264723191 | -0.081891023928006 |
| 74 | 218.761 | 274.145670169735 | -1.3840442373229 | -101.673520344479 | 0.172958920721997 |
| 75 | 1305.923 | 333.962716673092 | 1.29151507969894 | 455.521796823013 | 1.92965597658688 |
| 76 | 137.55 | 326.229196592979 | 0.897545130049234 | -112.411595556317 | -0.284972310147626 |
| 77 | 262.517 | 329.493102201439 | 1.00076367202028 | -86.9890535746743 | 0.074777388744763 |
| 78 | 348.821 | 330.137621037155 | 0.985229777324385 | 21.6967417002055 | -0.0112592412467086 |
| 79 | 150.034 | 325.472662241567 | 0.738880017057561 | -127.659516950181 | -0.178525464963185 |
| 80 | 64.016 | 310.097592680754 | 0.0362956354707142 | -109.906168275822 | -0.508828789523256 |
| 81 | 261.596 | 300.833229546086 | -0.369251101626626 | 39.2852874770979 | -0.293419260789858 |
| 82 | 259.7 | 300.36830063 | -0.373423442666079 | -39.8615871309158 | -0.00301477600969658 |
| 83 | 171.26 | 296.92594067435 | -0.507267145486144 | -99.8343982409169 | -0.0965538065290455 |
| 84 | 203.077 | 288.913614882685 | -0.834596343123765 | -22.7832320825452 | -0.2357647772729 |
| 85 | 249.148 | 275.039766528603 | -1.40323839770928 | 83.5509913822745 | -0.409356078609398 |
| 86 | 211.655 | 280.503604428801 | -1.10387736972797 | -126.541022805632 | 0.215774952434021 |
| 87 | 252.64 | 246.370405368971 | -2.54324840167511 | 284.093098291153 | -1.03906323003047 |
| 88 | 438.555 | 259.663387507108 | -1.85327447375716 | 45.5525470676511 | 0.498693655982795 |
| 89 | 239.89 | 263.495650406525 | -1.60558596146976 | -71.5088512319687 | 0.179160323603423 |
| 90 | 401.915 | 269.313657211994 | -1.28219742256285 | 70.0348059527825 | 0.234001539945628 |
| 91 | 216.886 | 272.181839689304 | -1.1014053712026 | -90.276006398513 | 0.130827527722171 |
| 92 | 184.641 | 272.246064606128 | -1.05063317685884 | -97.4269449494699 | 0.0367346739039896 |
| 93 | 380.155 | 275.865472749224 | -0.847237451729725 | 64.9563607103993 | 0.147113181592632 |
| 94 | 653.641 | 303.245733958581 | 0.381956294969872 | 112.807891574991 | 0.888670558020957 |
| 95 | 313.906 | 314.027703061394 | 0.834715980725041 | -87.5859077486162 | 0.327188779449786 |
| 96 | 366.936 | 320.575551577273 | 1.08334734669657 | -1.65214749841317 | 0.179641020894622 |
| 97 | 236.302 | 311.535541436688 | 0.642919994237061 | 9.82831681191978 | -0.318307761163662 |
| 98 | 229.641 | 311.244968426907 | 0.602306008857799 | -73.7566844532371 | -0.0293640666296283 |
| 99 | 235.577 | 289.495986946812 | -0.370350077586906 | 134.059953492496 | -0.70340681622807 |
| 100 | 103.898 | 271.362474074778 | -1.14351794446862 | -18.0137970344849 | -0.559251550046853 |
| 101 | 263.906 | 272.782865334236 | -1.03190154033981 | -30.4549719630545 | 0.0807479295220689 |
| 102 | 241.171 | 265.637691450568 | -1.29806022276351 | 26.9927869223271 | -0.192569379909277 |
| 103 | 216.548 | 266.892171727591 | -1.18692484714397 | -71.8317900068497 | 0.0804102397206511 |
| 104 | 295.281 | 275.971094245227 | -0.739973698828678 | -67.1030094429606 | 0.323372529736189 |
| 105 | 193.299 | 270.007825699088 | -0.96736142185953 | -32.7502405690556 | -0.164502686029194 |
| 106 | 204.386 | 257.412170413082 | -1.47349342937122 | 44.8069192295421 | -0.366124181807858 |
| 107 | 257.567 | 260.195665341411 | -1.28825004414911 | -38.4322743586715 | 0.133997947763051 |
| 108 | 136.813 | 249.523722756811 | -1.69646616346958 | -33.8057323692007 | -0.295337727665929 |
| 109 | 240.755 | 244.156714470292 | -1.85611463673413 | 27.4647456973048 | -0.115538966886148 |
| 110 | 59.609 | 231.223467247774 | -2.33795430973576 | -78.4500882507449 | -0.348726914108571 |
| 111 | 213.511 | 215.147521883196 | -2.93567833572303 | 113.911909167836 | -0.432519458760434 |
| 112 | 380.531 | 222.623986995487 | -2.48255353828442 | 70.329565899943 | 0.327830298044355 |
| 113 | 242.344 | 224.255505046896 | -2.30348386603152 | -16.5172606273225 | 0.129544067381697 |
| 114 | 250.407 | 223.031323306678 | -2.25650150553311 | 18.29649911776 | 0.033987728236404 |
| 115 | 183.613 | 223.995226957955 | -2.11631160145503 | -67.473471404572 | 0.101416025241157 |
| 116 | 191.835 | 223.838049392597 | -2.03102882167336 | -48.4837586256675 | 0.0616955347818945 |
| 117 | 266.793 | 226.052635849668 | -1.84622659372495 | 5.02783475913673 | 0.133690325431828 |
| 118 | 246.542 | 223.331750508503 | -1.88429404516122 | 30.5666818506591 | -0.0275393380229664 |
| 119 | 330.563 | 230.054814419175 | -1.50973816424098 | 28.1232071074824 | 0.270988513929146 |
| 120 | 403.556 | 243.077962201361 | -0.87743078449198 | 38.2648300291816 | 0.457555248993468 |
| 121 | 208.108 | 238.926148891745 | -1.0198823268894 | -3.28013574476315 | -0.103102854726041 |
| 122 | 324.04 | 247.916465874137 | -0.584364307577387 | -8.0659020599089 | 0.31520542003393 |
| 123 | 308.532 | 246.687146634776 | -0.612428412783784 | 67.2686448448201 | -0.0203069910757124 |
| 124 | 199.297 | 238.95089293852 | -0.922449996769724 | 20.2482572476426 | -0.224284153408098 |
| 125 | 200.156 | 236.040714524021 | -1.00896199428586 | -19.1712245111229 | -0.0625799347883091 |
| 126 | 262.875 | 235.90625013106 | -0.9708992209321 | 19.615640870463 | 0.0275324923207055 |
| 127 | 287.069 | 243.585374598094 | -0.594398455135395 | -29.2505852984217 | 0.272342422333242 |
| 128 | 190.157 | 244.63914082161 | -0.522661534467781 | -68.3409360367981 | 0.0518921600914108 |
| 129 | 199.746 | 241.616505149764 | -0.631469253846664 | -20.84956747719 | -0.0787097405394843 |
| 130 | 265.777 | 241.757852169792 | -0.59783571742286 | 17.5212138942998 | 0.0243307433120659 |
| 131 | 435.956 | 254.084497827083 | -0.0353972834695389 | 73.204203432893 | 0.406900801459952 |
| 132 | 72.844 | 241.052791617762 | -0.600919570770846 | -58.9351231757096 | -0.409183506461854 |
| 133 | 756.46 | 274.826139818851 | 0.894791889467518 | 192.594289274997 | 1.08234671742701 |
| 134 | 206.771 | 276.174588796234 | 0.914532158088562 | -73.2181885461345 | 0.0142842503995508 |
| 135 | 4202.361 | 537.389299548489 | 12.241759654112 | 1476.4449417551 | 8.19530706790613 |
| 136 | 401.422 | 576.10151170045 | 13.3937078673872 | -397.211010448562 | 0.833326032706844 |
| 137 | 216.046 | 574.993299964985 | 12.7625872839251 | -237.039846362598 | -0.456523339280993 |
| 138 | 39.047 | 551.471504829506 | 11.1834703420711 | -207.409708915123 | -1.14224438563009 |
| 139 | 441.437 | 553.242511106896 | 10.773833209436 | -32.6809334098469 | -0.296313334639079 |
