| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.353536678055785 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 250840 | 285298.219884236 | -34458.2198842358 |
| 14 | 247590 | 235208.384739281 | 12381.6152607195 |
| 15 | 237830 | 229878.070640776 | 7951.92935922384 |
| 16 | 226380 | 221287.644445811 | 5092.35555418945 |
| 17 | 217230 | 213846.297925504 | 3383.70207449637 |
| 18 | 211420 | 209119.035953376 | 2300.96404662388 |
| 19 | 207620 | 208434.45602683 | -814.456026830041 |
| 20 | 204310 | 200683.494350011 | 3626.5056499888 |
| 21 | 197490 | 197573.58389947 | -83.5838994700462 |
| 22 | 193580 | 192043.909000142 | 1536.09099985784 |
| 23 | 192330 | 190730.614594549 | 1599.38540545088 |
| 24 | 191970 | 191335.126535566 | 634.873464434204 |
| 25 | 196070 | 193510.633333652 | 2559.36666634824 |
| 26 | 191940 | 194561.443117953 | -2621.44311795267 |
| 27 | 185620 | 184371.339239772 | 1248.66076022829 |
| 28 | 179410 | 177068.274941237 | 2341.72505876268 |
| 29 | 173920 | 173285.559824515 | 634.440175485157 |
| 30 | 169190 | 170551.733104824 | -1361.73310482362 |
| 31 | 166840 | 168822.266910416 | -1982.26691041645 |
| 32 | 165170 | 162835.837735191 | 2334.16226480942 |
| 33 | 161450 | 161104.081967905 | 345.918032094865 |
| 34 | 160830 | 158570.002806134 | 2259.99719386565 |
| 35 | 163670 | 160472.01371919 | 3197.98628080953 |
| 36 | 170830 | 165624.517233499 | 5205.48276650065 |
| 37 | 182690 | 176944.601663409 | 5745.39833659129 |
| 38 | 190940 | 187444.723021949 | 3495.27697805112 |
| 39 | 197770 | 191781.943184031 | 5988.05681596856 |
| 40 | 205090 | 198691.727441376 | 6398.2725586236 |
| 41 | 210720 | 209494.341166244 | 1225.65883375562 |
| 42 | 220210 | 218329.99306268 | 1880.00693732011 |
| 43 | 229730 | 233140.212516165 | -3410.21251616487 |
| 44 | 237070 | 237584.741376339 | -514.741376338672 |
| 45 | 241620 | 243360.443400733 | -1740.44340073343 |
| 46 | 250370 | 248800.037261915 | 1569.96273808542 |
| 47 | 258570 | 260884.899165839 | -2314.8991658391 |
| 48 | 269860 | 270314.259527738 | -454.259527737799 |
| 49 | 283220 | 285273.411281575 | -2053.41128157516 |
| 50 | 289610 | 292518.585567199 | -2908.58556719875 |
| 51 | 281770 | 290031.851895614 | -8261.85189561371 |
| 52 | 274700 | 276855.228307702 | -2155.22830770211 |
| 53 | 267650 | 271290.847962472 | -3640.84796247177 |
| 54 | 261380 | 266800.746430662 | -5420.74643066182 |
| 55 | 260500 | 264037.444753494 | -3537.44475349429 |
| 56 | 260730 | 257360.542008101 | 3369.45799189879 |
| 57 | 254200 | 257353.431087096 | -3153.43108709648 |
| 58 | 250450 | 251386.468798973 | -936.468798973423 |
| 59 | 253380 | 249992.35664908 | 3387.64335091971 |
| 60 | 263740 | 255927.382229338 | 7812.61777066233 |
| 61 | 276240 | 272602.458283162 | 3637.54171683808 |
| 62 | 273820 | 281078.978251524 | -7258.97825152375 |
| 63 | 265890 | 268696.9889478 | -2806.9889477996 |
| 64 | 258400 | 257604.874022868 | 795.125977132062 |
| 65 | 253520 | 252601.857975739 | 918.142024260858 |
| 66 | 250710 | 251661.638929861 | -951.638929861278 |
| 67 | 252850 | 253707.161578226 | -857.161578226252 |
| 68 | 255260 | 251175.176255009 | 4084.82374499066 |
| 69 | 251170 | 253614.360418885 | -2444.36041888542 |
| 70 | 252500 | 250298.589510955 | 2201.41048904497 |
| 71 | 257780 | 255140.707333061 | 2639.29266693856 |
| 72 | 269900 | 263263.244842673 | 6636.75515732722 |
| 73 | 291590 | 281463.06310835 | 10126.9368916503 |
| 74 | 298870 | 301422.599461308 | -2552.59946130781 |
| 75 | 295570 | 299699.72942357 | -4129.72942356952 |
| 76 | 292100 | 292266.319357323 | -166.319357323286 |
| 77 | 290870 | 290991.437135338 | -121.437135338492 |
| 78 | 290580 | 293756.775814767 | -3176.77581476705 |
| 79 | 297970 | 298412.483374611 | -442.483374610601 |
| 80 | 304010 | 300564.283410834 | 3445.7165891655 |
| 81 | 304340 | 306100.953895198 | -1760.95389519754 |
| 82 | 309850 | 307749.809238903 | 2100.19076109707 |
| 83 | 322320 | 317394.889498242 | 4925.11050175846 |
| 84 | 340170 | 334133.702468914 | 6036.29753108631 |
| 85 | 369280 | 358989.042042003 | 10290.9579579971 |
| 86 | 376690 | 385090.147371957 | -8400.14737195679 |
| 87 | 379700 | 379276.713860854 | 423.286139146483 |
| 88 | 379520 | 378780.435927814 | 739.564072185545 |
| 89 | 377770 | 381605.938444973 | -3835.93844497262 |
| 90 | 381560 | 383735.875271328 | -2175.87527132779 |
| 91 | 394580 | 394748.273035594 | -168.273035593913 |
| 92 | 399320 | 401023.796415997 | -1703.79641599697 |
| 93 | 400370 | 402900.064631184 | -2530.06463118427 |
| 94 | 408200 | 405604.257751736 | 2595.74224826408 |
| 95 | 419070 | 418827.471427588 | 242.5285724118 |
| 96 | 437730 | 432993.224428309 | 4736.77557169128 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 97 | 459451.43059287 | 448662.319275545 | 470240.541910195 |
| 98 | 472413.324138817 | 454150.842416625 | 490675.805861009 |
| 99 | 472604.704300344 | 447009.142140755 | 498200.266459933 |
| 100 | 468393.791444523 | 435410.07214253 | 501377.510746517 |
| 101 | 467739.062578329 | 426845.436487148 | 508632.68866951 |
| 102 | 473546.83209028 | 423786.870330773 | 523306.793849786 |
| 103 | 489257.109908235 | 428970.347043462 | 549543.872773008 |
| 104 | 496672.746161602 | 426232.168819909 | 567113.323503294 |
| 105 | 501271.700716951 | 420646.181264454 | 581897.220169449 |
| 106 | 509036.014426586 | 417305.729040605 | 600766.299812568 |
| 107 | 522384.398221693 | 417992.871636779 | 626775.924806608 |
| 108 | 539732.05502137 | 421658.967505398 | 657805.142537342 |
