Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999937226073122 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 96.89 | 96.86 | 0.0300000000000011 |
3 | 96.9 | 96.8899981167822 | 0.0100018832178108 |
4 | 96.94 | 96.8999993721425 | 0.0400006278574807 |
5 | 96.88 | 96.9399974890035 | -0.0599974890035071 |
6 | 96.89 | 96.880003766278 | 0.00999623372202052 |
7 | 96.89 | 96.8899993724971 | 6.27502856787032e-07 |
8 | 96.95 | 96.8899999999606 | 0.0600000000393948 |
9 | 97.03 | 96.9499962335644 | 0.0800037664356239 |
10 | 97.29 | 97.0299949778494 | 0.260005022150594 |
11 | 97.37 | 97.2899836784638 | 0.0800163215362488 |
12 | 97.41 | 97.3699949770613 | 0.0400050229387006 |
13 | 97.41 | 97.4099974887276 | 2.51127238470872e-06 |
14 | 97.32 | 97.4099999998424 | -0.0899999998423624 |
15 | 97.33 | 97.3200056496534 | 0.00999435034658802 |
16 | 97.38 | 97.3299993726154 | 0.0500006273846054 |
17 | 97.47 | 97.3799968612643 | 0.0900031387357245 |
18 | 97.5 | 97.4699943501496 | 0.0300056498504375 |
19 | 97.5 | 97.4999981164275 | 1.88357246599935e-06 |
20 | 97.58 | 97.4999999998818 | 0.0800000001182326 |
21 | 97.7 | 97.5799949780858 | 0.120005021914167 |
22 | 97.9 | 97.6999924668135 | 0.200007533186479 |
23 | 97.98 | 97.8999874447417 | 0.0800125552582642 |
24 | 98.03 | 97.9799949772977 | 0.0500050227022939 |
25 | 98.03 | 98.0299968609884 | 3.13901163906394e-06 |
26 | 97.94 | 98.029999999803 | -0.0899999998029557 |
27 | 98.12 | 97.9400056496534 | 0.179994350346604 |
28 | 98.19 | 98.1199887010478 | 0.0700112989521813 |
29 | 98.34 | 98.1899956051158 | 0.150004394884178 |
30 | 98.42 | 98.3399905836351 | 0.0800094163649163 |
31 | 98.43 | 98.4199949774948 | 0.0100050225052541 |
32 | 98.45 | 98.4299993719455 | 0.0200006280545466 |
33 | 98.77 | 98.449998744482 | 0.320001255517951 |
34 | 99.24 | 98.7699799122646 | 0.470020087735406 |
35 | 99.46 | 99.2399704949934 | 0.220029505006622 |
36 | 99.54 | 99.4599861878839 | 0.0800138121160643 |
37 | 99.55 | 99.5399949772188 | 0.0100050227811863 |
38 | 99.24 | 99.5499993719454 | -0.309999371945423 |
39 | 99.43 | 99.2400194598779 | 0.189980540122107 |
40 | 99.47 | 99.4299880741755 | 0.0400119258245155 |
41 | 99.57 | 99.4699974882943 | 0.100002511705696 |
42 | 99.62 | 99.5699937224496 | 0.0500062775503807 |
43 | 99.64 | 99.6199968609096 | 0.0200031390904059 |
44 | 99.75 | 99.6399987443244 | 0.110001255675598 |
45 | 99.85 | 99.7499930947892 | 0.100006905210776 |
46 | 100.28 | 99.8499937221738 | 0.430006277826166 |
47 | 100.52 | 100.279973006817 | 0.240026993182639 |
48 | 100.57 | 100.519984932563 | 0.0500150674369166 |
49 | 100.57 | 100.569996860358 | 3.13964218889851e-06 |
50 | 100.27 | 100.569999999803 | -0.299999999802907 |
51 | 100.27 | 100.270018832178 | -1.88321780427714e-05 |
52 | 100.18 | 100.270000001182 | -0.0900000011821476 |
53 | 100.16 | 100.180005649654 | -0.0200056496535126 |
54 | 100.18 | 100.160001255833 | 0.0199987441668128 |
55 | 100.18 | 100.1799987446 | 1.25539969531019e-06 |
56 | 100.59 | 100.179999999921 | 0.410000000078796 |
57 | 100.69 | 100.58997426269 | 0.10002573731002 |
58 | 101.06 | 100.689993720992 | 0.370006279008322 |
59 | 101.15 | 101.059976773253 | 0.0900232267471068 |
60 | 101.16 | 101.149994348889 | 0.0100056511114417 |
61 | 101.16 | 101.159999371906 | 6.2809401413233e-07 |
62 | 100.81 | 101.159999999961 | -0.349999999960559 |
63 | 100.94 | 100.810021970874 | 0.129978029125581 |
64 | 101.13 | 100.939991840769 | 0.190008159231297 |
65 | 101.29 | 101.129988072442 | 0.160011927558301 |
66 | 101.34 | 101.289989955423 | 0.0500100445770357 |
67 | 101.35 | 101.339996860673 | 0.0100031393268694 |
68 | 101.7 | 101.349999372064 | 0.350000627936339 |
69 | 102.05 | 101.699978029086 | 0.350021970913829 |
70 | 102.48 | 102.049978027746 | 0.430021972253613 |
71 | 102.66 | 102.479973005832 | 0.180026994167832 |
72 | 102.72 | 102.659988698999 | 0.0600113010013672 |
73 | 102.73 | 102.719996232855 | 0.0100037671450224 |
74 | 102.18 | 102.729999372024 | -0.54999937202426 |
75 | 102.22 | 102.18003452562 | 0.0399654743796276 |
76 | 102.37 | 102.21999749121 | 0.150002508789782 |
77 | 102.53 | 102.369990583753 | 0.160009416246524 |
78 | 102.61 | 102.529989955581 | 0.0800100444193959 |
79 | 102.62 | 102.609994977455 | 0.0100050225446751 |
80 | 103 | 102.619999371945 | 0.380000628054546 |
81 | 103.17 | 102.999976145868 | 0.170023854131642 |
82 | 103.52 | 103.169989326935 | 0.350010673064986 |
83 | 103.69 | 103.519978028456 | 0.170021971544386 |
84 | 103.73 | 103.689989327053 | 0.0400106729468206 |
85 | 99.57 | 103.729997488373 | -4.15999748837295 |
86 | 99.09 | 99.5702611393781 | -0.480261139378129 |
87 | 99.14 | 99.0900301478776 | 0.0499698521223593 |
88 | 99.36 | 99.1399968631962 | 0.22000313680384 |
89 | 99.6 | 99.3599861895392 | 0.240013810460809 |
90 | 99.65 | 99.5999849333906 | 0.0500150666094044 |
91 | 99.8 | 99.6499968603579 | 0.150003139642124 |
92 | 100.15 | 99.7999905837139 | 0.350009416286127 |
93 | 100.45 | 100.149978028535 | 0.300021971465497 |
94 | 100.89 | 100.449981166443 | 0.440018833557303 |
95 | 101.13 | 100.88997237829 | 0.240027621710084 |
96 | 101.17 | 101.129984932524 | 0.0400150674763751 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 101.169997488097 | 100.248814822076 | 102.091180154118 |
98 | 101.169997488097 | 99.8672893570812 | 102.472705619113 |
99 | 101.169997488097 | 99.5745290788041 | 102.76546589739 |
100 | 101.169997488097 | 99.3277188947543 | 103.01227608144 |
101 | 101.169997488097 | 99.1102738692768 | 103.229721106917 |
102 | 101.169997488097 | 98.9136880331766 | 103.426306943018 |
103 | 101.169997488097 | 98.73290837877 | 103.607086597424 |
104 | 101.169997488097 | 98.5646425607911 | 103.775352415403 |
105 | 101.169997488097 | 98.4066036928383 | 103.933391283356 |
106 | 101.169997488097 | 98.2571266982899 | 104.082868277904 |
107 | 101.169997488097 | 98.1149545737423 | 104.225040402452 |
108 | 101.169997488097 | 97.9791107494324 | 104.360884226762 |