Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.00316737455888981 |
gamma | 0 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 102.02 | 101.625212089844 | 0.394787910156055 |
14 | 101.51 | 101.507742377567 | 0.00225762243331928 |
15 | 101.62 | 101.609033306134 | 0.0109666938663224 |
16 | 101.83 | 101.803269840733 | 0.0267301592672169 |
17 | 102.06 | 102.023343513441 | 0.0366564865593233 |
18 | 102.14 | 102.094746463915 | 0.045253536085383 |
19 | 102.14 | 102.040922165692 | 0.0990778343081047 |
20 | 102.59 | 102.732900350592 | -0.142900350591788 |
21 | 102.92 | 102.68566870724 | 0.234331292760501 |
22 | 103.31 | 103.260337837614 | 0.0496621623858431 |
23 | 103.54 | 103.402376978953 | 0.13762302104675 |
24 | 103.58 | 103.517355274265 | 0.0626447257345717 |
25 | 103.58 | 103.574833005177 | 0.00516699482281524 |
26 | 102.83 | 103.060451390502 | -0.230451390501727 |
27 | 102.86 | 102.93031251457 | -0.0703125145697072 |
28 | 103.03 | 103.045304884023 | -0.0153048840232657 |
29 | 103.2 | 103.225320347881 | -0.0253203478806654 |
30 | 103.28 | 103.234685902294 | 0.0453140977061679 |
31 | 103.28 | 103.179367772334 | 0.100632227665514 |
32 | 103.79 | 103.879068417629 | -0.0890684176294769 |
33 | 103.92 | 103.886469816636 | 0.0335301833635242 |
34 | 104.26 | 104.262844397673 | -0.00284439767270328 |
35 | 104.41 | 104.352301660274 | 0.057698339725647 |
36 | 104.45 | 104.386050653105 | 0.0639493468947308 |
37 | 99.92 | 104.443678950596 | -4.52367895059611 |
38 | 99.18 | 99.4070897444926 | -0.227089744492602 |
39 | 99.18 | 99.2650280743461 | -0.0850280743461269 |
40 | 99.35 | 99.3469083923187 | 0.00309160768127015 |
41 | 99.62 | 99.5266159084653 | 0.093384091534702 |
42 | 99.67 | 99.6420482682518 | 0.0279517317481606 |
43 | 99.72 | 99.5614429072001 | 0.158557092799867 |
44 | 100.08 | 100.287074739826 | -0.207074739825771 |
45 | 100.39 | 100.161398045022 | 0.228601954977691 |
46 | 100.77 | 100.71002142804 | 0.05997857195959 |
47 | 101.03 | 100.848191458443 | 0.181808541556506 |
48 | 101.07 | 100.996123830863 | 0.0738761691365966 |
49 | 101.29 | 101.053227507336 | 0.236772492664485 |
50 | 101.1 | 100.770828074647 | 0.329171925353279 |
51 | 101.2 | 101.188833176451 | 0.0111668235487627 |
52 | 101.15 | 101.3727109081 | -0.222710908100154 |
53 | 101.24 | 101.331657976243 | -0.0916579762426721 |
54 | 101.16 | 101.263783405275 | -0.103783405275337 |
55 | 100.81 | 101.050865625942 | -0.240865625942178 |
56 | 101.02 | 101.383322078925 | -0.363322078925492 |
57 | 101.15 | 101.101828706861 | 0.0481712931387648 |
58 | 101.06 | 101.471655769687 | -0.411655769687258 |
59 | 101.17 | 101.136458236455 | 0.0335417635454149 |
60 | 101.22 | 101.133754150391 | 0.0862458496090284 |
61 | 101.84 | 101.200913801137 | 0.639086198863467 |
62 | 101.79 | 101.316721461264 | 0.473278538736096 |
63 | 101.88 | 101.87850287561 | 0.00149712438978611 |
64 | 101.9 | 102.05291055381 | -0.152910553810258 |
65 | 101.91 | 102.082219751392 | -0.172219751391623 |
66 | 101.96 | 101.932959360425 | 0.0270406395754179 |
67 | 101.26 | 101.849348136389 | -0.589348136388764 |
68 | 101.06 | 101.834360606103 | -0.774360606103386 |
69 | 100.98 | 101.139322335849 | -0.159322335848756 |
70 | 101.12 | 101.29805427892 | -0.178054278920001 |
71 | 101.24 | 101.194026433469 | 0.0459735665314724 |
72 | 101.25 | 101.201287047408 | 0.0487129525915435 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 101.228376098623 | 100.005803164486 | 102.450949032761 |
74 | 100.704147864968 | 98.9774767704869 | 102.430818959449 |
75 | 100.786454287209 | 98.6660780266241 | 102.906830547794 |
76 | 100.952251287113 | 98.4970191758193 | 103.407483398406 |
77 | 101.127891286845 | 98.3757642416801 | 103.88001833201 |
78 | 101.14621789863 | 98.128007953516 | 104.164427843744 |
79 | 101.03193720246 | 97.7716991352984 | 104.292175269621 |
80 | 101.601938072323 | 98.0951211281524 | 105.108755016494 |
81 | 101.680563463888 | 97.9559351359416 | 105.405191791835 |
82 | 102.000104217473 | 98.0600157163334 | 105.940192718614 |
83 | 102.074507612475 | 97.937018791803 | 106.211996433148 |
84 | 102.035091834426 | 82.7814942571629 | 121.288689411689 |