| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.130833151993687 |
| beta | 0.428021655131703 |
| gamma | 0.951642767295901 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 14746 | 13385.0907942653 | 1360.90920573473 |
| 14 | 15253.2 | 14130.6753548711 | 1122.52464512887 |
| 15 | 18384.3 | 17369.4467657537 | 1014.8532342463 |
| 16 | 16848.5 | 16252.2773294968 | 596.222670503226 |
| 17 | 16485.5 | 16231.8912419382 | 253.608758061819 |
| 18 | 19257.1 | 19366.3301649169 | -109.230164916917 |
| 19 | 17093.4 | 17757.4393902355 | -664.039390235459 |
| 20 | 15700.1 | 15252.5255371902 | 447.574462809816 |
| 21 | 19124.3 | 19973.3453865573 | -849.0453865573 |
| 22 | 18640.8 | 19773.9127473267 | -1133.11274732672 |
| 23 | 18439.2 | 19703.0626052008 | -1263.86260520079 |
| 24 | 17106.3 | 19235.1034605897 | -2128.80346058969 |
| 25 | 18347.7 | 19130.5985315371 | -782.898531537077 |
| 26 | 19372.7 | 19216.5983716804 | 156.101628319575 |
| 27 | 22263.8 | 22624.8983912445 | -361.098391244494 |
| 28 | 19422.9 | 20182.7137836738 | -759.813783673821 |
| 29 | 21268.6 | 19158.0021469403 | 2110.59785305974 |
| 30 | 20310 | 22327.6335473872 | -2017.63354738722 |
| 31 | 19256 | 19275.4800555894 | -19.4800555893598 |
| 32 | 17535.9 | 17242.5732539801 | 293.326746019924 |
| 33 | 19857.4 | 20819.9480388566 | -962.548038856617 |
| 34 | 19628.4 | 19946.9931735315 | -318.593173531499 |
| 35 | 19727.5 | 19533.0593261321 | 194.440673867946 |
| 36 | 18112.2 | 18226.2282024374 | -114.028202437377 |
| 37 | 18889.3 | 19442.6993855112 | -553.399385511166 |
| 38 | 20516.1 | 20268.4553388931 | 247.644661106948 |
| 39 | 22317 | 23273.4435286264 | -956.443528626362 |
| 40 | 19768.8 | 20173.6725753224 | -404.872575322377 |
| 41 | 20015.8 | 21465.5826138391 | -1449.78261383909 |
| 42 | 20260.5 | 20408.5487638897 | -148.048763889725 |
| 43 | 19434.3 | 19041.1482763208 | 393.151723679151 |
| 44 | 17910 | 17164.8677268205 | 745.132273179501 |
| 45 | 19134.4 | 19556.1721361806 | -421.772136180571 |
| 46 | 20880.1 | 19155.7385232802 | 1724.3614767198 |
| 47 | 19680 | 19411.4034801909 | 268.596519809067 |
| 48 | 17493.4 | 17865.5278960438 | -372.127896043818 |
| 49 | 19087.8 | 18637.4927582504 | 450.307241749557 |
| 50 | 19064.6 | 20264.485561776 | -1199.88556177601 |
| 51 | 21191 | 21981.1618671714 | -790.161867171373 |
| 52 | 20503.9 | 19364.6295970297 | 1139.27040297032 |
| 53 | 20364.1 | 20016.0447644438 | 348.055235556225 |
| 54 | 19860.4 | 20408.1547845 | -547.754784499957 |
| 55 | 20924.1 | 19543.1667249422 | 1380.93327505779 |
| 56 | 17018.8 | 18211.5330463999 | -1192.73304639992 |
| 57 | 20607.4 | 19442.2113739731 | 1165.18862602693 |
| 58 | 21500.2 | 21186.596822183 | 313.603177816985 |
| 59 | 19868.3 | 20083.7142721425 | -215.414272142538 |
| 60 | 18801.9 | 17925.9429004718 | 875.957099528157 |
| 61 | 19787.5 | 19687.1822178485 | 100.317782151455 |
| 62 | 19936.2 | 19983.1382866856 | -46.9382866855958 |
| 63 | 21047.6 | 22447.4395317957 | -1399.83953179565 |
| 64 | 21034.4 | 21417.3577655319 | -382.957765531944 |
| 65 | 20132.8 | 21238.7208623127 | -1105.92086231275 |
| 66 | 20725.3 | 20633.2892528193 | 92.0107471807314 |
| 67 | 20827.8 | 21452.5700375462 | -624.770037546212 |
| 68 | 16992.3 | 17523.3067222885 | -531.006722288472 |
| 69 | 21818.2 | 20769.2216609672 | 1048.97833903283 |
| 70 | 21841.4 | 21704.4865046077 | 136.913495392295 |
| 71 | 19252.2 | 20018.2673031087 | -766.067303108699 |
| 72 | 17933.7 | 18557.6572464516 | -623.957246451639 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 19245.3367627983 | 17572.0968473208 | 20918.5766782759 |
| 74 | 19177.4034259418 | 17472.5440741116 | 20882.2627777719 |
| 75 | 20234.135485076 | 18467.1008999534 | 22001.1700701986 |
| 76 | 20066.0784404721 | 18218.9595543969 | 21913.1973265472 |
| 77 | 19231.4574426844 | 17295.9044905938 | 21167.0103947749 |
| 78 | 19654.8328296242 | 17571.8535556777 | 21737.8121035707 |
| 79 | 19768.5431201061 | 17514.8623721521 | 22022.2238680602 |
| 80 | 16147.6731038782 | 13927.2797172303 | 18368.066490526 |
| 81 | 20506.115729283 | 17765.7895918159 | 23246.4418667501 |
| 82 | 20465.6906379283 | 17466.5918441131 | 23464.7894317435 |
| 83 | 18086.592745446 | 15079.5498329553 | 21093.6356579367 |
| 84 | 16881.3732305357 | 14254.2728434219 | 19508.4736176494 |
