Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 83.4 | 84.17 | -0.769999999999996 |
4 | 82.96 | 83.68 | -0.720000000000013 |
5 | 82.76 | 83.24 | -0.47999999999999 |
6 | 83.35 | 83.04 | 0.309999999999988 |
7 | 87.78 | 83.63 | 4.15000000000001 |
8 | 88.99 | 88.06 | 0.929999999999993 |
9 | 88.92 | 89.27 | -0.349999999999994 |
10 | 88.91 | 89.2 | -0.290000000000006 |
11 | 89.79 | 89.19 | 0.600000000000009 |
12 | 90.54 | 90.07 | 0.469999999999999 |
13 | 93.15 | 90.82 | 2.33 |
14 | 92.79 | 93.43 | -0.640000000000001 |
15 | 93.21 | 93.07 | 0.139999999999986 |
16 | 95.35 | 93.49 | 1.86 |
17 | 100.91 | 95.63 | 5.28 |
18 | 103.69 | 101.19 | 2.5 |
19 | 104.04 | 103.97 | 0.0700000000000074 |
20 | 104.16 | 104.32 | -0.160000000000011 |
21 | 104.71 | 104.44 | 0.269999999999996 |
22 | 105.18 | 104.99 | 0.190000000000012 |
23 | 104.92 | 105.46 | -0.540000000000006 |
24 | 104.83 | 105.2 | -0.370000000000005 |
25 | 104.9 | 105.11 | -0.209999999999994 |
26 | 105.05 | 105.18 | -0.13000000000001 |
27 | 104.6 | 105.33 | -0.730000000000004 |
28 | 103.21 | 104.88 | -1.67 |
29 | 102.52 | 103.49 | -0.969999999999999 |
30 | 101.09 | 102.8 | -1.70999999999999 |
31 | 101.19 | 101.37 | -0.180000000000007 |
32 | 102.34 | 101.47 | 0.870000000000005 |
33 | 102.62 | 102.62 | 0 |
34 | 102.47 | 102.9 | -0.430000000000007 |
35 | 101.82 | 102.75 | -0.930000000000007 |
36 | 101.86 | 102.1 | -0.239999999999995 |
37 | 101.54 | 102.14 | -0.599999999999994 |
38 | 101.98 | 101.82 | 0.159999999999997 |
39 | 101.23 | 102.26 | -1.03 |
40 | 100.4 | 101.51 | -1.11 |
41 | 99.94 | 100.68 | -0.740000000000009 |
42 | 99.94 | 100.22 | -0.280000000000001 |
43 | 100 | 100.22 | -0.219999999999999 |
44 | 98.8 | 100.28 | -1.48 |
45 | 99.07 | 99.08 | -0.0100000000000051 |
46 | 99.46 | 99.35 | 0.109999999999999 |
47 | 99.18 | 99.74 | -0.559999999999988 |
48 | 98.47 | 99.46 | -0.990000000000009 |
49 | 97.12 | 98.75 | -1.63 |
50 | 96.91 | 97.4 | -0.490000000000009 |
51 | 96.09 | 97.19 | -1.09999999999999 |
52 | 97.17 | 96.37 | 0.799999999999997 |
53 | 96.8 | 97.45 | -0.650000000000006 |
54 | 97.13 | 97.08 | 0.0499999999999972 |
55 | 99.9 | 97.41 | 2.49000000000001 |
56 | 100.56 | 100.18 | 0.379999999999995 |
57 | 100.84 | 100.84 | 0 |
58 | 99.81 | 101.12 | -1.31 |
59 | 100.44 | 100.09 | 0.349999999999994 |
60 | 100.07 | 100.72 | -0.650000000000006 |
61 | 101.32 | 100.35 | 0.969999999999999 |
62 | 103.98 | 101.6 | 2.38000000000001 |
63 | 104.81 | 104.26 | 0.549999999999997 |
64 | 106.23 | 105.09 | 1.14 |
65 | 106.48 | 106.51 | -0.0300000000000011 |
66 | 107.59 | 106.76 | 0.829999999999998 |
67 | 107.16 | 107.87 | -0.710000000000008 |
68 | 107.54 | 107.44 | 0.100000000000009 |
69 | 107.1 | 107.82 | -0.720000000000013 |
70 | 106.38 | 107.38 | -1 |
71 | 106.64 | 106.66 | -0.019999999999996 |
72 | 106.13 | 106.92 | -0.790000000000006 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 106.41 | 103.985855548153 | 108.834144451847 |
74 | 106.69 | 103.261742039046 | 110.118257960954 |
75 | 106.97 | 102.771258644514 | 111.168741355486 |
76 | 107.25 | 102.401711096305 | 112.098288903695 |
77 | 107.53 | 102.10944821839 | 112.95055178161 |
78 | 107.81 | 101.872083030175 | 113.747916969825 |
79 | 108.09 | 101.676316638315 | 114.503683361685 |
80 | 108.37 | 101.513484078092 | 115.226515921908 |
81 | 108.65 | 101.377566644458 | 115.922433355542 |
82 | 108.93 | 101.264182154902 | 116.595817845098 |
83 | 109.21 | 101.170022415601 | 117.249977584399 |
84 | 109.49 | 101.092517289029 | 117.887482710971 |