Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999945481003755 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 100.27 | 100.57 | -0.299999999999997 |
3 | 100.27 | 100.270016355699 | -1.63556988752589e-05 |
4 | 100.18 | 100.270000000892 | -0.0900000008916919 |
5 | 100.16 | 100.18000490671 | -0.0200049067097297 |
6 | 100.18 | 100.160001090647 | 0.0199989093525801 |
7 | 100.18 | 100.17999890968 | 1.09032046680113e-06 |
8 | 100.59 | 100.179999999941 | 0.410000000059441 |
9 | 100.69 | 100.589977647212 | 0.100022352788457 |
10 | 101.06 | 100.689994546882 | 0.370005453118281 |
11 | 101.15 | 101.059979827674 | 0.0900201723259215 |
12 | 101.16 | 101.149995092191 | 0.0100049078094315 |
13 | 101.16 | 101.159999454542 | 5.45457538692062e-07 |
14 | 100.81 | 101.15999999997 | -0.349999999970251 |
15 | 100.94 | 100.810019081649 | 0.129980918351308 |
16 | 101.13 | 100.939992913571 | 0.190007086429205 |
17 | 101.29 | 101.129989641004 | 0.160010358995649 |
18 | 101.34 | 101.289991276396 | 0.0500087236041651 |
19 | 101.35 | 101.339997273575 | 0.0100027264254123 |
20 | 101.7 | 101.349999454661 | 0.350000545338617 |
21 | 102.05 | 101.699980918322 | 0.350019081678411 |
22 | 102.48 | 102.049980917311 | 0.430019082689 |
23 | 102.66 | 102.479976555791 | 0.180023444208743 |
24 | 102.72 | 102.659990185303 | 0.0600098146974801 |
25 | 102.73 | 102.719996728325 | 0.0100032716748615 |
26 | 102.18 | 102.729999454632 | -0.54999945463166 |
27 | 102.22 | 102.180029985418 | 0.0399700145817832 |
28 | 102.37 | 102.219997820875 | 0.150002179125082 |
29 | 102.53 | 102.369991822032 | 0.160008177968237 |
30 | 102.61 | 102.529991276515 | 0.0800087234852498 |
31 | 102.62 | 102.609995638005 | 0.0100043619952999 |
32 | 103 | 102.619999454572 | 0.380000545427762 |
33 | 103.17 | 102.999979282752 | 0.170020717248306 |
34 | 103.52 | 103.169990730641 | 0.350009269358836 |
35 | 103.69 | 103.519980917846 | 0.170019082154042 |
36 | 103.73 | 103.68999073073 | 0.0400092692697172 |
37 | 99.57 | 103.729997818735 | -4.15999781873481 |
38 | 99.09 | 99.5702267989055 | -0.480226798905449 |
39 | 99.14 | 99.090026181483 | 0.0499738185169605 |
40 | 99.36 | 99.1399972754776 | 0.220002724522431 |
41 | 99.6 | 99.3599880056723 | 0.240011994327716 |
42 | 99.65 | 99.599986914787 | 0.0500130852130241 |
43 | 99.8 | 99.6499972733368 | 0.150002726663189 |
44 | 100.15 | 99.7999918220019 | 0.350008177998092 |
45 | 100.45 | 100.149980917905 | 0.300019082094536 |
46 | 100.89 | 100.449983643261 | 0.440016356739207 |
47 | 101.13 | 100.88997601075 | 0.240023989250091 |
48 | 101.17 | 101.129986914133 | 0.0400130858669741 |
49 | 101.21 | 101.169997818527 | 0.0400021814732696 |
50 | 101.1 | 101.209997819121 | -0.109997819121219 |
51 | 101.17 | 101.100005996971 | 0.069994003029322 |
52 | 101.11 | 101.169996183997 | -0.0599961839972138 |
53 | 101.2 | 101.110003270932 | 0.0899967290682753 |
54 | 101.15 | 101.199995093469 | -0.0499950934686524 |
55 | 100.92 | 101.150002725682 | -0.230002725682311 |
56 | 101.1 | 100.920012539518 | 0.179987460482252 |
57 | 101.22 | 101.099990187264 | 0.120009812735688 |
58 | 101.25 | 101.219993457185 | 0.0300065428145331 |
59 | 101.39 | 101.249998364073 | 0.140001635926595 |
60 | 101.43 | 101.389992367251 | 0.0400076327486687 |
61 | 101.95 | 101.429997818824 | 0.520002181175983 |
62 | 101.92 | 101.949971650003 | -0.0299716500030485 |
63 | 102.05 | 101.920001634024 | 0.129998365975709 |
64 | 102.07 | 102.04999291262 | 0.0200070873804208 |
65 | 102.1 | 102.069998909234 | 0.0300010907663193 |
66 | 102.16 | 102.099998364371 | 0.060001635629348 |
67 | 101.63 | 102.159996728771 | -0.529996728771053 |
68 | 101.43 | 101.63002889489 | -0.200028894889641 |
69 | 101.4 | 101.430010905375 | -0.0300109053745672 |
70 | 101.6 | 101.400001636164 | 0.199998363835562 |
71 | 101.72 | 101.59998909629 | 0.120010903710053 |
72 | 101.73 | 101.719993457126 | 0.0100065428740095 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 101.729999454453 | 100.663741407825 | 102.796257501081 |
74 | 101.729999454453 | 100.222123968412 | 103.237874940495 |
75 | 101.729999454453 | 99.8832534673692 | 103.576745441537 |
76 | 101.729999454453 | 99.5975705575807 | 103.862428351326 |
77 | 101.729999454453 | 99.3458779685337 | 104.114120940373 |
78 | 101.729999454453 | 99.1183299655958 | 104.341668943311 |
79 | 101.729999454453 | 98.9090776585796 | 104.550921250327 |
80 | 101.729999454453 | 98.7143101405747 | 104.745688768332 |
81 | 101.729999454453 | 98.5313803309489 | 104.928618577958 |
82 | 101.729999454453 | 98.3583608978085 | 105.101638011098 |
83 | 101.729999454453 | 98.1937968561764 | 105.26620205273 |
84 | 101.729999454453 | 98.0365578242842 | 105.423441084622 |