Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999932422965254 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 96.9 | 96.4 | 0.5 |
3 | 98.1 | 96.8999662114826 | 1.20003378851736 |
4 | 99.2 | 98.099918905275 | 1.10008109472503 |
5 | 100 | 99.1999256597816 | 0.800074340218359 |
6 | 100.3 | 99.9999459333485 | 0.300054066651484 |
7 | 100.3 | 100.299979723236 | 2.02767640899992e-05 |
8 | 100.8 | 100.29999999863 | 0.500000001370239 |
9 | 101.3 | 100.799966211483 | 0.500033788517456 |
10 | 101.4 | 101.299966209199 | 0.100033790800708 |
11 | 101.9 | 101.399993240013 | 0.500006759986945 |
12 | 103.4 | 101.899966211026 | 1.50003378897419 |
13 | 105.6 | 103.399898632165 | 2.20010136783546 |
14 | 107.5 | 105.599851323673 | 1.90014867632658 |
15 | 109 | 107.499871593587 | 1.50012840641313 |
16 | 110.5 | 108.999898625771 | 1.50010137422944 |
17 | 109.8 | 110.499898627597 | -0.699898627597307 |
18 | 109.6 | 109.800047297074 | -0.20004729707388 |
19 | 109.6 | 109.600013518603 | -1.35186031542389e-05 |
20 | 108.8 | 109.600000000914 | -0.800000000913556 |
21 | 109.4 | 108.800054061628 | 0.599945938372144 |
22 | 109.1 | 109.399959457432 | -0.299959457432493 |
23 | 109 | 109.100020270371 | -0.100020270370678 |
24 | 109.2 | 109.000006759073 | 0.199993240926716 |
25 | 110.5 | 109.19998648505 | 1.30001351495018 |
26 | 112.2 | 110.499912148942 | 1.70008785105848 |
27 | 113.2 | 112.199885113104 | 1.00011488689577 |
28 | 113.6 | 113.199932415202 | 0.400067584798464 |
29 | 113.2 | 113.599972964619 | -0.399972964618911 |
30 | 112.2 | 113.200027028987 | -1.00002702898692 |
31 | 112.2 | 112.200067578861 | -6.757886129094e-05 |
32 | 113.2 | 112.200000004567 | 0.999999995433214 |
33 | 113.8 | 113.199932422966 | 0.600067577034437 |
34 | 113.8 | 113.799959449212 | 4.05507875029798e-05 |
35 | 113.7 | 113.79999999726 | -0.0999999972596868 |
36 | 113.9 | 113.700006757703 | 0.199993242296713 |
37 | 114 | 113.89998648505 | 0.100013514950277 |
38 | 114.3 | 113.999993241383 | 0.300006758616775 |
39 | 114.3 | 114.299979726433 | 2.02735671450682e-05 |
40 | 112.8 | 114.29999999863 | -1.49999999862997 |
41 | 112.3 | 112.800101365552 | -0.500101365552027 |
42 | 112.2 | 112.300033795367 | -0.100033795367352 |
43 | 112.6 | 112.200006759987 | 0.399993240012719 |
44 | 111.9 | 112.599972969643 | -0.699972969642914 |
45 | 111.7 | 111.900047302098 | -0.200047302097701 |
46 | 111 | 111.700013518603 | -0.700013518603484 |
47 | 110.8 | 111.000047304838 | -0.200047304837867 |
48 | 111.1 | 110.800013518604 | 0.299986481396331 |
49 | 110.5 | 111.099979727803 | -0.599979727803117 |
50 | 110.5 | 110.500040544851 | -4.05448509042117e-05 |
51 | 109.8 | 110.50000000274 | -0.700000002739898 |
52 | 109 | 109.800047303925 | -0.800047303924515 |
53 | 109 | 109.000054064824 | -5.40648244538033e-05 |
54 | 109.4 | 109.000000003654 | 0.399999996346466 |
55 | 108.8 | 109.399972969186 | -0.599972969186368 |
56 | 108.4 | 108.800040544394 | -0.400040544394173 |
57 | 108.3 | 108.400027033554 | -0.100027033553772 |
58 | 108.2 | 108.30000675953 | -0.100006759530316 |
59 | 106.8 | 108.20000675816 | -1.40000675816027 |
60 | 103.6 | 106.800094608305 | -3.20009460830535 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 103.600216252905 | 101.835783801807 | 105.364648704002 |
62 | 103.600216252905 | 101.105016261204 | 106.095416244605 |
63 | 103.600216252905 | 100.544267280379 | 106.65616522543 |
64 | 103.600216252905 | 100.071530201868 | 107.128902303941 |
65 | 103.600216252905 | 99.6550386433567 | 107.545393862452 |
66 | 103.600216252905 | 99.2785004483918 | 107.921932057417 |
67 | 103.600216252905 | 98.9322371806428 | 108.268195325166 |
68 | 103.600216252905 | 98.6099427390407 | 108.590489766768 |
69 | 103.600216252905 | 98.3072368587193 | 108.89319564709 |
70 | 103.600216252905 | 98.0209302778566 | 109.179502227952 |
71 | 103.600216252905 | 97.7486153509748 | 109.451817154834 |
72 | 103.600216252905 | 97.488421570525 | 109.712010935284 |