Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.939622928582403 |
beta | 0.214033550366 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 83.61 | 84.0838141025642 | -0.473814102564162 |
14 | 83.89 | 83.6354657957062 | 0.254534204293762 |
15 | 83.4 | 83.0935131767473 | 0.306486823252712 |
16 | 82.96 | 82.7007642496026 | 0.259235750397437 |
17 | 82.76 | 82.5224189149632 | 0.237581085036851 |
18 | 83.35 | 83.0627564897791 | 0.287243510220847 |
19 | 87.78 | 86.3329424658113 | 1.4470575341887 |
20 | 88.99 | 88.6068519021202 | 0.383148097879783 |
21 | 88.92 | 89.1968928706557 | -0.276892870655743 |
22 | 88.91 | 89.8368913892559 | -0.9268913892559 |
23 | 89.79 | 89.4355618316482 | 0.354438168351777 |
24 | 90.54 | 89.7473969268264 | 0.792603073173652 |
25 | 93.15 | 91.20423536819 | 1.94576463181001 |
26 | 92.79 | 94.0918415722218 | -1.30184157222178 |
27 | 93.21 | 92.796102625564 | 0.413897374435962 |
28 | 95.35 | 93.2285109493533 | 2.12148905064674 |
29 | 100.91 | 95.900278094359 | 5.00972190564104 |
30 | 103.69 | 102.988960307647 | 0.701039692353291 |
31 | 104.04 | 108.862536965765 | -4.82253696576537 |
32 | 104.16 | 106.064824685936 | -1.90482468593619 |
33 | 104.71 | 104.888715282284 | -0.178715282284472 |
34 | 105.18 | 106.02499593959 | -0.844995939590049 |
35 | 104.92 | 106.237727444993 | -1.31772744499283 |
36 | 104.83 | 105.128269181031 | -0.298269181030506 |
37 | 104.9 | 105.533794009761 | -0.633794009760578 |
38 | 105.05 | 105.186800085545 | -0.136800085545346 |
39 | 104.6 | 104.70894785616 | -0.108947856159858 |
40 | 103.21 | 104.267624089469 | -1.05762408946923 |
41 | 102.52 | 103.001698481768 | -0.481698481767751 |
42 | 101.09 | 102.441078260068 | -1.35107826006823 |
43 | 101.19 | 103.41094499322 | -2.22094499322013 |
44 | 102.34 | 101.115123966545 | 1.22487603345492 |
45 | 102.62 | 101.494600125153 | 1.12539987484701 |
46 | 102.47 | 102.588930470266 | -0.118930470265724 |
47 | 101.82 | 102.374268484113 | -0.554268484113152 |
48 | 101.86 | 101.116186425284 | 0.743813574716057 |
49 | 101.54 | 101.762652983702 | -0.222652983701565 |
50 | 101.98 | 101.196703431141 | 0.783296568859498 |
51 | 101.23 | 101.134837952965 | 0.0951620470349894 |
52 | 100.4 | 100.418832153083 | -0.0188321530832951 |
53 | 99.94 | 99.9634741928793 | -0.0234741928793341 |
54 | 99.94 | 99.6727975066951 | 0.26720249330485 |
55 | 100 | 102.3280478147 | -2.32804781469989 |
56 | 98.8 | 100.335429445963 | -1.53542944596347 |
57 | 99.07 | 97.7559162196718 | 1.31408378032818 |
58 | 99.46 | 98.6310186562063 | 0.828981343793657 |
59 | 99.18 | 99.1499966331851 | 0.0300033668149382 |
60 | 98.47 | 98.5060323156143 | -0.0360323156143352 |
61 | 97.12 | 98.1912980393499 | -1.07129803934991 |
62 | 96.91 | 96.5479193745913 | 0.362080625408723 |
63 | 96.09 | 95.6232520546456 | 0.466747945354385 |
64 | 97.17 | 94.8987740615019 | 2.27122593849811 |
65 | 96.8 | 96.7047422186408 | 0.0952577813592228 |
66 | 97.13 | 96.6768726103778 | 0.45312738962221 |
67 | 99.9 | 99.5212136967715 | 0.378786303228551 |
68 | 100.56 | 100.835313460919 | -0.275313460918596 |
69 | 100.84 | 100.580761099795 | 0.259238900204579 |
70 | 99.81 | 101.19215903494 | -1.38215903494046 |
71 | 100.44 | 99.897315581966 | 0.542684418033986 |
72 | 100.07 | 100.146253525112 | -0.0762535251119232 |
73 | 101.32 | 100.138293675823 | 1.18170632417667 |
74 | 103.98 | 101.558609866133 | 2.42139013386699 |
75 | 104.81 | 103.849563021902 | 0.960436978097945 |
76 | 106.23 | 105.071528410278 | 1.1584715897216 |
77 | 106.48 | 106.850374280465 | -0.370374280464844 |
78 | 107.59 | 107.462775376304 | 0.127224623695597 |
79 | 107.16 | 110.987041824828 | -3.82704182482756 |
80 | 107.54 | 108.454558396967 | -0.91455839696718 |
81 | 107.1 | 107.647874441438 | -0.547874441438282 |
82 | 106.38 | 107.255711037678 | -0.875711037677974 |
83 | 106.64 | 106.508729986711 | 0.131270013288798 |
84 | 106.13 | 106.206759809638 | -0.076759809638105 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 106.147210304184 | 103.511014438438 | 108.783406169931 |
86 | 106.167296802745 | 102.168201132423 | 110.166392473068 |
87 | 105.243160601062 | 99.9040859166068 | 110.582235285518 |
88 | 104.529792258463 | 97.8178222938519 | 111.241762223074 |
89 | 103.849981365185 | 95.71429526104 | 111.985667469331 |
90 | 103.637101411799 | 94.0202195642301 | 113.253983259367 |
91 | 105.574154629321 | 94.4162972944015 | 116.73201196424 |
92 | 106.354231202141 | 93.5952486745243 | 119.113213729757 |
93 | 106.153690722389 | 91.7339772641834 | 120.573404180594 |
94 | 106.091376509718 | 89.9523108991422 | 122.230442120294 |
95 | 106.238994787773 | 88.3231443172249 | 124.154845258321 |
96 | 105.785682835767 | 86.0368836478593 | 125.534482023676 |