Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.935465964560229 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 97.17745455 | 96.9823327385524 | 0.195121811447621 |
14 | 97.20751515 | 97.1947966157646 | 0.0127185342353755 |
15 | 97.23757576 | 97.2399567282372 | -0.00238096823723311 |
16 | 97.26763636 | 97.2638200429816 | 0.00381631701839069 |
17 | 97.29769697 | 97.273700413822 | 0.0239965561780338 |
18 | 97.32775758 | 97.2911001257195 | 0.0366574542804869 |
19 | 97.35781818 | 97.358954780206 | -0.00113660020599582 |
20 | 97.38787879 | 97.4290452959743 | -0.0411665059743171 |
21 | 97.41793939 | 97.4808508135818 | -0.0629114235818236 |
22 | 97.9 | 97.691892983782 | 0.208107016218008 |
23 | 97.98 | 97.7204586264331 | 0.25954137356689 |
24 | 98.03 | 97.9952782556265 | 0.0347217443734849 |
25 | 98.03 | 98.0702903876895 | -0.0402903876894527 |
26 | 97.94 | 98.0507629454108 | -0.110762945410769 |
27 | 98.12 | 97.9794359045932 | 0.140564095406816 |
28 | 98.19 | 98.1374193970048 | 0.0525806029952207 |
29 | 98.34 | 98.1942194099316 | 0.145780590068355 |
30 | 98.42 | 98.3263609994073 | 0.0936390005927166 |
31 | 98.43 | 98.4450809482252 | -0.0150809482252185 |
32 | 98.45 | 98.4995437096661 | -0.0495437096660822 |
33 | 98.77 | 98.5421093510582 | 0.227890648941766 |
34 | 99.24 | 99.0426768761267 | 0.197323123873318 |
35 | 99.46 | 99.0644738211638 | 0.395526178836178 |
36 | 99.54 | 99.4519940894661 | 0.088005910533937 |
37 | 99.55 | 99.5720109098331 | -0.0220109098331136 |
38 | 99.24 | 99.5650354184014 | -0.325035418401441 |
39 | 99.43 | 99.309482920118 | 0.120517079881964 |
40 | 99.47 | 99.4430351819977 | 0.0269648180022841 |
41 | 99.57 | 99.481887071177 | 0.0881129288230369 |
42 | 99.62 | 99.5567176191187 | 0.0632823808813043 |
43 | 99.64 | 99.6400238463675 | -2.38463674975264e-05 |
44 | 99.75 | 99.706347993053 | 0.0436520069469992 |
45 | 99.85 | 99.8539990141101 | -0.00399901411009296 |
46 | 100.28 | 100.135669006114 | 0.144330993885887 |
47 | 100.52 | 100.120684460132 | 0.399315539868297 |
48 | 100.57 | 100.491904022814 | 0.0780959771861234 |
49 | 100.57 | 100.595550608438 | -0.0255506084384365 |
50 | 100.27 | 100.565708455062 | -0.2957084550616 |
51 | 100.27 | 100.366343633541 | -0.0963436335410393 |
52 | 100.18 | 100.29099277398 | -0.110992773979632 |
53 | 100.16 | 100.204736165658 | -0.0447361656578948 |
54 | 100.18 | 100.153688491829 | 0.0263115081707923 |
55 | 100.18 | 100.198324319664 | -0.0183243196644014 |
56 | 100.59 | 100.250347575511 | 0.339652424489032 |
57 | 100.69 | 100.671821799993 | 0.018178200007398 |
58 | 101.06 | 100.983810154985 | 0.0761898450148948 |
59 | 101.15 | 100.921537065175 | 0.228462934825146 |
60 | 101.16 | 101.112200236241 | 0.0477997637593575 |
61 | 101.16 | 101.18081701292 | -0.0208170129195082 |
62 | 100.81 | 101.137968600992 | -0.327968600992321 |
63 | 100.94 | 100.921291327399 | 0.0187086726007237 |
64 | 101.13 | 100.952622616229 | 0.177377383770562 |
65 | 101.29 | 101.140402281987 | 0.1495977180126 |
66 | 101.34 | 101.275732335194 | 0.0642676648059535 |
67 | 101.35 | 101.352994325612 | -0.00299432561156721 |
68 | 101.7 | 101.442459953025 | 0.257540046974711 |
69 | 102.05 | 101.766374814077 | 0.283625185922517 |
70 | 102.48 | 102.330423515344 | 0.149576484656478 |
71 | 102.66 | 102.346627926146 | 0.313372073854239 |
72 | 102.72 | 102.605061783369 | 0.114938216630861 |
73 | 102.73 | 102.732056180125 | -0.00205618012455488 |
74 | 102.18 | 102.686936157274 | -0.506936157273785 |
75 | 102.22 | 102.325213309479 | -0.105213309479126 |
76 | 102.37 | 102.250859334043 | 0.119140665957445 |
77 | 102.53 | 102.382367798464 | 0.14763220153587 |
78 | 102.61 | 102.510352485226 | 0.0996475147737073 |
79 | 102.62 | 102.616370433447 | 0.00362956655348512 |
80 | 103 | 102.728845820967 | 0.271154179032663 |
81 | 103.17 | 103.067179618478 | 0.102820381521937 |
82 | 103.52 | 103.45344087536 | 0.0665591246397526 |
83 | 103.69 | 103.402555761757 | 0.287444238242642 |
84 | 103.73 | 103.623929273657 | 0.106070726343134 |
85 | 99.57 | 103.735078314511 | -4.16507831451059 |
86 | 99.09 | 99.7630108328926 | -0.673010832892629 |
87 | 99.14 | 99.2718555749777 | -0.131855574977706 |
88 | 99.36 | 99.1870571343503 | 0.172942865649674 |
89 | 99.6 | 99.3707343991692 | 0.229265600830786 |
90 | 99.65 | 99.571987707067 | 0.0780122929329679 |
91 | 99.8 | 99.6515702159463 | 0.148429784053747 |
92 | 100.15 | 99.9167657214222 | 0.233234278577783 |
93 | 100.45 | 100.208763483424 | 0.241236516576379 |
94 | 100.89 | 100.722168238358 | 0.167831761641523 |
95 | 101.13 | 100.780274837561 | 0.349725162438631 |
96 | 101.17 | 101.048205269643 | 0.12179473035718 |
97 | 101.21 | 100.898429097507 | 0.311570902492704 |
98 | 101.1 | 101.339471800288 | -0.23947180028793 |
99 | 101.17 | 101.288800484276 | -0.118800484275766 |
100 | 101.11 | 101.235884510034 | -0.125884510033714 |
101 | 101.2 | 101.14365366901 | 0.0563463309898253 |
102 | 101.15 | 101.173385899023 | -0.0233858990229123 |
103 | 100.92 | 101.162658175327 | -0.242658175327037 |
104 | 101.1 | 101.067476981908 | 0.0325230180919363 |
105 | 101.22 | 101.172232607732 | 0.0477673922684261 |
106 | 101.25 | 101.499916476627 | -0.249916476626666 |
107 | 101.39 | 101.178972132348 | 0.211027867652035 |
108 | 101.43 | 101.302446695198 | 0.127553304801779 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
109 | 101.170304495678 | 100.257453490671 | 102.083155500686 |
110 | 101.28432221432 | 100.034317307443 | 102.534327121196 |
111 | 101.465456023933 | 99.9516107289685 | 102.979301318897 |
112 | 101.523216698535 | 99.7851307147707 | 103.261302682299 |
113 | 101.560506623666 | 99.6239741047476 | 103.497039142584 |
114 | 101.532383336252 | 99.4159302877066 | 103.648836384798 |
115 | 101.529381800293 | 99.2471485044686 | 103.811615096118 |
116 | 101.678957623803 | 99.2421966329712 | 104.115718614636 |
117 | 101.75427285412 | 99.1722156440043 | 104.336330064237 |
118 | 102.018061211988 | 99.2984592657123 | 104.737663158263 |
119 | 101.960651824225 | 99.1101343175162 | 104.811169330934 |
120 | 101.881330048916 | 98.9056510732995 | 104.857009024533 |