| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.653616535251408 |
| beta | 0.0529317881405975 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 22859 | 27592.9504540598 | -4733.95045405983 |
| 14 | 19731 | 21321.260451362 | -1590.26045136202 |
| 15 | 17169.5 | 17594.5073290414 | -425.007329041408 |
| 16 | 17169.5 | 17003.2205642392 | 166.279435760844 |
| 17 | 27009.5 | 26513.8280575852 | 495.671942414778 |
| 18 | 28032 | 27266.4432476464 | 765.556752353554 |
| 19 | 20242 | 19759.5914827989 | 482.408517201075 |
| 20 | 11429.5 | 14588.0676146981 | -3158.56761469812 |
| 21 | 16091.5 | 12805.9226214092 | 3285.57737859077 |
| 22 | 16091.5 | 14881.2612740303 | 1210.2387259697 |
| 23 | 19731 | 16131.9950075588 | 3599.00499244119 |
| 24 | 21831.5 | 19592.2684784247 | 2239.23152157533 |
| 25 | 21320 | 16336.5635965364 | 4983.43640346358 |
| 26 | 16091.5 | 17922.2590379296 | -1830.75903792958 |
| 27 | 18708.5 | 14850.6344041734 | 3857.86559582661 |
| 28 | 17681 | 17820.3890358024 | -139.389035802385 |
| 29 | 26493.5 | 27791.6003154287 | -1298.10031542874 |
| 30 | 24392.5 | 27949.4982649436 | -3556.99826494356 |
| 31 | 16091.5 | 17853.9656981579 | -1762.4656981579 |
| 32 | 9891 | 10211.0053746476 | -320.005374647641 |
| 33 | 15580 | 12871.5672457357 | 2708.43275426431 |
| 34 | 17169.5 | 14186.0744878186 | 2983.42551218137 |
| 35 | 18708.5 | 17819.831519255 | 888.668480744996 |
| 36 | 20753.5 | 19340.4213808021 | 1413.07861919788 |
| 37 | 16602.5 | 16769.5342052316 | -167.034205231612 |
| 38 | 13019 | 12724.5386696473 | 294.461330352748 |
| 39 | 14558 | 13182.0315681401 | 1375.96843185988 |
| 40 | 15069 | 13228.7206895732 | 1840.2793104268 |
| 41 | 28543.5 | 24244.7346985237 | 4298.76530147633 |
| 42 | 28543.5 | 27624.2441286433 | 919.25587135669 |
| 43 | 20753.5 | 21576.7795315312 | -823.279531531163 |
| 44 | 19731 | 15580.542173123 | 4150.45782687695 |
| 45 | 22859 | 22899.9495836532 | -40.9495836531569 |
| 46 | 21320 | 23105.4233574333 | -1785.42335743332 |
| 47 | 25471 | 23324.3597575104 | 2146.64024248958 |
| 48 | 30644 | 26320.1169711467 | 4323.88302885334 |
| 49 | 31671.5 | 25676.449308682 | 5995.05069131801 |
| 50 | 24392.5 | 26604.1335684665 | -2211.63356846647 |
| 51 | 22342.5 | 26496.6987762337 | -4154.19877623368 |
| 52 | 20242 | 23596.7622721687 | -3354.76227216869 |
| 53 | 34283.5 | 32396.2102591938 | 1887.28974080622 |
| 54 | 35311 | 33272.9233233577 | 2038.07667664232 |
| 55 | 32694 | 27635.8511209698 | 5058.14887903015 |
| 56 | 35311 | 27692.8113878926 | 7618.18861210738 |
| 57 | 34794.5 | 36433.1025456538 | -1638.6025456538 |
| 58 | 30644 | 35540.9446967273 | -4896.94469672731 |
| 59 | 35311 | 35531.3691638433 | -220.36916384333 |
| 60 | 40484 | 38095.5071990576 | 2388.4928009424 |
| 61 | 42584.5 | 37060.0788615688 | 5524.42113843122 |
| 62 | 36333.5 | 35115.5872566841 | 1217.9127433159 |
| 63 | 32182.5 | 36973.6356253149 | -4791.13562531486 |
| 64 | 35311 | 34309.0095383964 | 1001.99046160357 |
| 65 | 48785 | 48297.3055533729 | 487.694446627123 |
| 66 | 52936 | 48788.4704272722 | 4147.52957272783 |
| 67 | 51913.5 | 46126.2758626014 | 5787.22413739862 |
| 68 | 53958 | 48121.7523614876 | 5836.24763851241 |
| 69 | 53447 | 53004.5132196524 | 442.486780347594 |
| 70 | 48274 | 52929.5287399848 | -4655.52873998478 |
| 71 | 57086.5 | 55291.5622126727 | 1794.9377873273 |
| 72 | 59187 | 60740.2557092608 | -1553.25570926076 |
| 73 | 62259.5 | 58741.9469227849 | 3517.55307721515 |
| 74 | 52936 | 54451.8759036103 | -1515.87590361032 |
| 75 | 49296.5 | 52804.9047111753 | -3508.40471117535 |
| 76 | 53447 | 53392.979501353 | 54.0204986469689 |
| 77 | 63337.5 | 66958.3696896772 | -3620.86968967719 |
| 78 | 72150 | 66264.5177596814 | 5885.48224031855 |
| 79 | 70049.5 | 65599.071269098 | 4450.42873090203 |
| 80 | 70049.5 | 66984.358271223 | 3065.14172877705 |
| 81 | 71077 | 68338.2778607632 | 2738.72213923675 |
| 82 | 67488 | 68228.4345161018 | -740.434516101785 |
| 83 | 76817 | 75749.3761453756 | 1067.62385462435 |
| 84 | 76817 | 79903.3663080269 | -3086.36630802686 |
| 85 | 75227.5 | 78946.8341747744 | -3719.33417477444 |
| 86 | 66410 | 68220.1409345869 | -1810.14093458693 |
| 87 | 67999.5 | 65717.4970264255 | 2282.00297357453 |
| 88 | 69027 | 71551.4172857383 | -2524.41728573831 |
| 89 | 75789.5 | 82296.5443313557 | -6507.04433135572 |
| 90 | 84602 | 83047.1984253367 | 1554.80157466332 |
| 91 | 78350.5 | 78942.3540535872 | -591.854053587173 |
| 92 | 81479 | 76265.9182371511 | 5213.08176284886 |
| 93 | 78862 | 78698.8501764673 | 163.149823532716 |
| 94 | 77328 | 75399.4901047319 | 1928.5098952681 |
| 95 | 89269 | 85082.5594340097 | 4186.44056599031 |
| 96 | 86652 | 89735.4682313013 | -3083.46823130127 |
| 97 | 83012.5 | 88460.9629579294 | -5448.46295792944 |
| 98 | 77839.5 | 77104.954927137 | 734.54507286298 |
| 99 | 83012.5 | 77610.6089956924 | 5401.8910043076 |
| 100 | 85629.5 | 83854.4123507652 | 1775.08764923477 |
| 101 | 88752.5 | 96214.5383212691 | -7462.03832126911 |
| 102 | 92903 | 99284.7302155296 | -6381.73021552956 |
| 103 | 88752.5 | 89125.5380447214 | -373.038044721368 |
| 104 | 91314 | 88487.0947938764 | 2826.90520612359 |
| 105 | 88190.5 | 87412.8516112935 | 777.648388706468 |
| 106 | 87679.5 | 84949.5716176855 | 2729.92838231449 |
| 107 | 100642.5 | 95789.2400366069 | 4853.25996339305 |
| 108 | 101720.5 | 98233.555698441 | 3486.94430155896 |
| 109 | 97570 | 100535.441677108 | -2965.44167710836 |
| 110 | 90291.5 | 93131.0305173901 | -2839.53051739007 |
| 111 | 96492 | 92980.6098752052 | 3511.39012479482 |
| 112 | 99104 | 96730.3887890065 | 2373.61121099352 |
| 113 | 102232 | 106300.74203852 | -4068.74203852029 |
| 114 | 106894 | 112099.057620716 | -5205.05762071647 |
| 115 | 102232 | 104966.98744103 | -2734.98744102976 |
| 116 | 105871.5 | 103988.143572909 | 1883.35642709119 |
| 117 | 104282 | 101649.709719424 | 2632.29028057639 |
| 118 | 98592.5 | 101201.414147226 | -2608.91414722598 |
| 119 | 110533 | 109228.827639166 | 1304.17236083376 |
| 120 | 110533 | 108699.157575399 | 1833.84242460092 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 107447.382273348 | 101091.30620644 | 113803.458340255 |
| 122 | 101889.275281999 | 94173.4125726721 | 109605.137991326 |
| 123 | 105757.341043308 | 96777.2754684517 | 114737.406618164 |
| 124 | 106659.094029051 | 96470.0048811095 | 116848.183176992 |
| 125 | 112205.555579241 | 100840.735707598 | 123570.375450884 |
| 126 | 120169.498425724 | 107648.99242808 | 132690.004423368 |
| 127 | 117375.04241674 | 103710.267614756 | 131039.817218724 |
| 128 | 119958.083102108 | 105154.541494494 | 134761.624709721 |
| 129 | 116757.449581509 | 100816.430002667 | 132698.469160351 |
| 130 | 112791.484350628 | 95711.1867185397 | 129871.781982717 |
| 131 | 123988.121916902 | 105764.430094188 | 142211.813739615 |
| 132 | 122852.937800158 | 103479.968277745 | 142225.90732257 |
