| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0240970395417507 |
| beta | 0.141764472832465 |
| gamma | 0.959889360460358 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1130 | 1147.95673076923 | -17.9567307692312 |
| 14 | 1340 | 1354.50085481928 | -14.5008548192773 |
| 15 | 1140 | 1153.57871881903 | -13.5787188190311 |
| 16 | 1290 | 1304.29908391598 | -14.2990839159806 |
| 17 | 1260 | 1269.95324318741 | -9.95324318740609 |
| 18 | 1280 | 1290.26145637311 | -10.2614563731083 |
| 19 | 1330 | 1295.94385499689 | 34.0561450031105 |
| 20 | 1270 | 1250.31051595026 | 19.6894840497412 |
| 21 | 1300 | 1334.39824423389 | -34.3982442338872 |
| 22 | 1150 | 1173.31511040693 | -23.3151104069252 |
| 23 | 1410 | 1322.00273378294 | 87.9972662170558 |
| 24 | 1250 | 1386.58993038919 | -136.589930389194 |
| 25 | 1030 | 1105.1441748838 | -75.1441748837963 |
| 26 | 1320 | 1312.89749576441 | 7.10250423558728 |
| 27 | 1160 | 1112.78347764926 | 47.2165223507393 |
| 28 | 1300 | 1263.92542436796 | 36.0745756320434 |
| 29 | 1190 | 1234.66793089913 | -44.6679308991318 |
| 30 | 1310 | 1253.53579880977 | 56.4642011902326 |
| 31 | 1290 | 1302.25383352132 | -12.2538335213167 |
| 32 | 1320 | 1241.80110347852 | 78.1988965214812 |
| 33 | 1300 | 1276.58608992852 | 23.4139100714806 |
| 34 | 1230 | 1127.43028780357 | 102.569712196425 |
| 35 | 1330 | 1384.00626040259 | -54.0062604025927 |
| 36 | 1220 | 1234.88448707973 | -14.8844870797313 |
| 37 | 1010 | 1014.44403018423 | -4.44403018422554 |
| 38 | 1290 | 1301.70054170217 | -11.7005417021724 |
| 39 | 1170 | 1139.40057528516 | 30.5994247148365 |
| 40 | 1240 | 1280.33800322316 | -40.3380032231598 |
| 41 | 1260 | 1173.97512191092 | 86.0248780890779 |
| 42 | 1260 | 1291.54736963852 | -31.5473696385156 |
| 43 | 1310 | 1274.2903493085 | 35.7096506914984 |
| 44 | 1360 | 1300.40763426079 | 59.5923657392109 |
| 45 | 1250 | 1284.04221459826 | -34.042214598257 |
| 46 | 1170 | 1208.07379162014 | -38.0737916201433 |
| 47 | 1360 | 1314.52829037014 | 45.4717096298627 |
| 48 | 1140 | 1204.73268600498 | -64.7326860049845 |
| 49 | 1030 | 992.982315306061 | 37.0176846939391 |
| 50 | 1260 | 1274.69305705018 | -14.6930570501804 |
| 51 | 1210 | 1152.18835297325 | 57.8116470267473 |
| 52 | 1190 | 1227.6657143759 | -37.6657143759014 |
| 53 | 1230 | 1240.08337006302 | -10.0833700630201 |
| 54 | 1350 | 1245.21912501502 | 104.780874984976 |
| 55 | 1300 | 1294.73281077036 | 5.26718922964346 |
| 56 | 1340 | 1342.86686174947 | -2.86686174946863 |
| 57 | 1270 | 1237.44796294897 | 32.5520370510251 |
| 58 | 1220 | 1159.69976852706 | 60.3002314729406 |
| 59 | 1400 | 1347.51495490273 | 52.4850450972699 |
| 60 | 1120 | 1135.40554015063 | -15.4055401506344 |
| 61 | 1000 | 1021.08001039454 | -21.0800103945431 |
| 62 | 1260 | 1253.67244660266 | 6.32755339733512 |
| 63 | 1260 | 1200.38768300859 | 59.6123169914076 |
| 64 | 1150 | 1187.26930290303 | -37.2693029030268 |
| 65 | 1240 | 1226.33600348695 | 13.6639965130501 |
| 66 | 1360 | 1340.52671028135 | 19.47328971865 |
| 67 | 1350 | 1295.35559889083 | 54.6444011091735 |
| 68 | 1280 | 1337.81971858764 | -57.8197185876368 |
| 69 | 1320 | 1264.82772999271 | 55.1722700072937 |
| 70 | 1210 | 1214.26740030429 | -4.26740030428823 |
| 71 | 1370 | 1393.63459987826 | -23.634599878262 |
| 72 | 1060 | 1116.2626336964 | -56.262633696399 |
| 73 | 1040 | 995.666201020543 | 44.3337989794568 |
| 74 | 1260 | 1255.76189761546 | 4.23810238454166 |
| 75 | 1210 | 1252.58732430012 | -42.5873243001224 |
| 76 | 1200 | 1146.14795914893 | 53.8520408510735 |
| 77 | 1200 | 1235.33035467818 | -35.3303546781817 |
| 78 | 1290 | 1353.82270016827 | -63.8227001682717 |
| 79 | 1400 | 1339.34705533878 | 60.6529446612201 |
| 80 | 1280 | 1276.38053024372 | 3.61946975628393 |
| 81 | 1280 | 1310.70150287904 | -30.7015028790395 |
| 82 | 1220 | 1202.08408871521 | 17.9159112847926 |
| 83 | 1350 | 1363.61208250257 | -13.6120825025673 |
| 84 | 1000 | 1055.71990527478 | -55.7199052747817 |
| 85 | 980 | 1029.17588122136 | -49.1758812213579 |
| 86 | 1240 | 1248.94356319192 | -8.94356319192002 |
| 87 | 1190 | 1201.02747831027 | -11.0274783102657 |
| 88 | 1200 | 1185.23711559396 | 14.7628844060434 |
| 89 | 1150 | 1189.34971860506 | -39.3497186050574 |
| 90 | 1270 | 1280.4555617975 | -10.4555617974986 |
| 91 | 1410 | 1383.45268872757 | 26.5473112724305 |
| 92 | 1420 | 1265.70431451745 | 154.295685482554 |
| 93 | 1260 | 1271.4869971307 | -11.4869971307039 |
| 94 | 1300 | 1208.92236305355 | 91.0776369464534 |
| 95 | 1410 | 1342.97611161585 | 67.0238883841516 |
| 96 | 1000 | 998.154508587411 | 1.8454914125889 |
| 97 | 950 | 979.896824569661 | -29.8968245696608 |
| 98 | 1280 | 1238.65192654031 | 41.3480734596853 |
| 99 | 1330 | 1191.00226780551 | 138.997732194485 |
| 100 | 1190 | 1204.5055938137 | -14.5055938136998 |
| 101 | 1170 | 1158.6416425024 | 11.3583574975971 |
| 102 | 1270 | 1279.62867204411 | -9.62867204410918 |
| 103 | 1340 | 1418.9037330167 | -78.9037330167009 |
| 104 | 1470 | 1419.51873050185 | 50.4812694981467 |
| 105 | 1270 | 1268.38176116989 | 1.61823883011448 |
| 106 | 1280 | 1303.13639024493 | -23.1363902449348 |
| 107 | 1430 | 1412.44032476994 | 17.5596752300632 |
| 108 | 980 | 1005.73633251681 | -25.7363325168083 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 957.350883088252 | 861.724925155415 | 1052.97684102109 |
| 110 | 1283.93960165529 | 1188.27745743153 | 1379.60174587905 |
| 111 | 1327.00041283205 | 1231.29255805714 | 1422.70826760696 |
| 112 | 1193.1165245104 | 1097.35233423439 | 1288.88071478641 |
| 113 | 1171.63777496757 | 1075.80552944154 | 1267.47002049359 |
| 114 | 1272.4598884726 | 1176.54678029702 | 1368.37299664818 |
| 115 | 1346.87440954594 | 1250.86655218258 | 1442.88226690929 |
| 116 | 1470.66431068745 | 1374.54674843358 | 1566.78187294132 |
| 117 | 1272.43657432604 | 1176.19329384093 | 1368.67985481116 |
| 118 | 1283.85612168112 | 1187.47006514547 | 1380.24217821678 |
| 119 | 1431.81204265442 | 1335.26512263228 | 1528.35896267655 |
| 120 | 984.039076990472 | 887.312193051224 | 1080.76596092972 |
