| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0158751338414481 |
| beta | 0.26613735251105 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 630 | 629.696848290599 | 0.303151709401163 |
| 14 | 680 | 677.706292486103 | 2.29370751389683 |
| 15 | 660 | 654.507027857893 | 5.49297214210731 |
| 16 | 650 | 645.13175960489 | 4.86824039510986 |
| 17 | 720 | 717.642141802383 | 2.35785819761713 |
| 18 | 680 | 679.080966550763 | 0.919033449236622 |
| 19 | 665 | 647.375832648849 | 17.624167351151 |
| 20 | 710 | 673.093689826247 | 36.9063101737535 |
| 21 | 755 | 710.731914844076 | 44.2680851559243 |
| 22 | 640 | 697.632373517103 | -57.6323735171028 |
| 23 | 655 | 656.421653946318 | -1.42165394631809 |
| 24 | 730 | 762.763947298994 | -32.7639472989938 |
| 25 | 640 | 643.143590118882 | -3.14359011888178 |
| 26 | 685 | 693.140794841018 | -8.14079484101831 |
| 27 | 695 | 672.963794096561 | 22.0362059034386 |
| 28 | 695 | 663.345669579637 | 31.6543304203627 |
| 29 | 730 | 734.033257052177 | -4.03325705217731 |
| 30 | 705 | 694.150138587351 | 10.8498614126489 |
| 31 | 615 | 679.280052795004 | -64.2800527950039 |
| 32 | 630 | 722.565120408202 | -92.5651204082018 |
| 33 | 795 | 764.737277220169 | 30.2627227798308 |
| 34 | 625 | 650.417853721007 | -25.4178537210067 |
| 35 | 700 | 664.458246174801 | 35.5417538251993 |
| 36 | 725 | 740.120112803639 | -15.1201128036389 |
| 37 | 610 | 649.582032986885 | -39.5820329868849 |
| 38 | 645 | 693.580997021462 | -48.5809970214621 |
| 39 | 700 | 701.787178888866 | -1.78717888886558 |
| 40 | 700 | 700.482876875139 | -0.4828768751388 |
| 41 | 730 | 734.630047446961 | -4.63004744696116 |
| 42 | 725 | 708.472588214104 | 16.5274117858963 |
| 43 | 635 | 618.867691379664 | 16.1323086203356 |
| 44 | 630 | 635.045290963968 | -5.04529096396766 |
| 45 | 775 | 799.306553182083 | -24.3065531820831 |
| 46 | 615 | 628.915423548284 | -13.9154235482836 |
| 47 | 690 | 702.770109936914 | -12.7701099369139 |
| 48 | 745 | 727.243126259602 | 17.7568737403981 |
| 49 | 590 | 612.728002944204 | -22.7280029442044 |
| 50 | 595 | 647.7842442568 | -52.7842442567998 |
| 51 | 700 | 701.602722012937 | -1.60272201293674 |
| 52 | 690 | 701.213786639913 | -11.2137866399128 |
| 53 | 755 | 730.692773487582 | 24.3072265124175 |
| 54 | 700 | 725.522042677416 | -25.5220426774164 |
| 55 | 645 | 634.388880346008 | 10.6111196539915 |
| 56 | 600 | 629.142207194401 | -29.1422071944013 |
| 57 | 800 | 773.468411120122 | 26.5315888798782 |
| 58 | 610 | 613.72827286264 | -3.72827286264032 |
| 59 | 690 | 688.532613609315 | 1.46738639068451 |
| 60 | 725 | 742.994969129588 | -17.9949691295883 |
| 61 | 630 | 587.640009663202 | 42.3599903367983 |
| 62 | 565 | 593.995334674512 | -28.9953346745118 |
| 63 | 695 | 698.505878171472 | -3.50587817147152 |
| 64 | 690 | 688.565606369039 | 1.43439363096138 |
| 65 | 785 | 753.193299337467 | 31.8067006625332 |
| 66 | 660 | 699.125888086692 | -39.1258880866918 |
| 67 | 605 | 643.301317922111 | -38.3013179221107 |
| 68 | 595 | 597.914273913412 | -2.91427391341233 |
| 69 | 790 | 797.315987129222 | -7.31598712922221 |
| 70 | 575 | 606.985197052874 | -31.9851970528738 |
| 71 | 665 | 686.060913634635 | -21.0609136346346 |
| 72 | 710 | 720.523840872834 | -10.5238408728339 |
| 73 | 630 | 624.227467755449 | 5.77253224455137 |
| 74 | 520 | 559.167996307479 | -39.1679963074791 |
| 75 | 725 | 687.947460269851 | 37.0525397301485 |
| 76 | 680 | 683.029865907563 | -3.02986590756325 |
| 77 | 750 | 776.974932206716 | -26.9749322067163 |
| 78 | 620 | 651.417581307977 | -31.4175813079773 |
| 79 | 630 | 595.809179933182 | 34.1908200668177 |
| 80 | 610 | 585.986823476335 | 24.0131765236649 |
| 81 | 840 | 781.186540917505 | 58.8134590824955 |
| 82 | 605 | 567.609739179199 | 37.390260820801 |
| 83 | 675 | 658.812525796877 | 16.1874742031232 |
| 84 | 740 | 704.668811074368 | 35.3311889256324 |
| 85 | 635 | 625.764034226947 | 9.23596577305295 |
| 86 | 520 | 517.173062014243 | 2.82693798575679 |
| 87 | 725 | 722.447761589954 | 2.55223841004556 |
| 88 | 655 | 678.208651224103 | -23.2086512241032 |
| 89 | 755 | 748.85545973605 | 6.14454026395015 |
| 90 | 580 | 620.178710388787 | -40.1787103887873 |
| 91 | 645 | 629.688015611205 | 15.3119843887951 |
| 92 | 615 | 610.160052053027 | 4.83994794697344 |
| 93 | 840 | 839.832378130802 | 0.167621869197546 |
| 94 | 595 | 604.522849872836 | -9.52284987283554 |
| 95 | 655 | 674.197874852425 | -19.1978748524255 |
| 96 | 740 | 738.265896582213 | 1.73410341778663 |
| 97 | 660 | 632.938534881739 | 27.0614651182609 |
| 98 | 525 | 518.190304742322 | 6.80969525767819 |
| 99 | 690 | 723.141762952796 | -33.1417629527961 |
| 100 | 660 | 652.717138042413 | 7.28286195758665 |
| 101 | 740 | 752.597099228692 | -12.5970992286924 |
| 102 | 575 | 577.817668383108 | -2.81766838310762 |
| 103 | 625 | 642.470414240151 | -17.4704142401511 |
| 104 | 630 | 611.918286253076 | 18.0817137469239 |
| 105 | 840 | 837.060672869474 | 2.93932713052595 |
| 106 | 575 | 592.128219968293 | -17.1282199682935 |
| 107 | 655 | 651.998651956755 | 3.00134804324534 |
| 108 | 735 | 736.950136538952 | -1.95013653895171 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 656.405374594957 | 605.435184903185 | 707.375564286729 |
| 110 | 521.098737114084 | 470.118252126518 | 572.07922210165 |
| 111 | 686.397563647908 | 635.402004178497 | 737.393123117318 |
| 112 | 656.194666675471 | 605.178348754176 | 707.210984596765 |
| 113 | 736.27659690281 | 685.232934960785 | 787.320258844835 |
| 114 | 571.256499673673 | 520.178010804553 | 622.334988542792 |
| 115 | 621.480921299536 | 570.359230743677 | 672.602611855394 |
| 116 | 626.214760043022 | 575.040608034421 | 677.388912051622 |
| 117 | 836.112591573268 | 784.875841680022 | 887.349341466515 |
| 118 | 571.316579542121 | 520.006228620505 | 622.626930463737 |
| 119 | 651.27337407319 | 599.87756394272 | 702.66918420366 |
| 120 | 731.296093491004 | 679.802124423102 | 782.790062558906 |
