| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.495629629160832 |
| beta | 0.565014116024567 |
| gamma | 0.601978987121485 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 335 | 293.302883287177 | 41.697116712823 |
| 14 | 335 | 326.577646760573 | 8.42235323942737 |
| 15 | 345 | 355.068751440251 | -10.0687514402514 |
| 16 | 365 | 381.833109535174 | -16.8331095351745 |
| 17 | 365 | 380.054529244819 | -15.0545292448188 |
| 18 | 385 | 395.945763056085 | -10.9457630560845 |
| 19 | 385 | 408.661984616487 | -23.6619846164872 |
| 20 | 385 | 383.258442684115 | 1.74155731588473 |
| 21 | 395 | 374.321359142041 | 20.6786408579592 |
| 22 | 395 | 382.185802486692 | 12.8141975133077 |
| 23 | 405 | 403.0598685901 | 1.94013140990018 |
| 24 | 405 | 420.408261033876 | -15.4082610338757 |
| 25 | 416 | 427.832456553373 | -11.8324565533732 |
| 26 | 416 | 404.710779874957 | 11.2892201250428 |
| 27 | 426 | 414.260543936237 | 11.7394560637634 |
| 28 | 436 | 443.575970804391 | -7.57597080439081 |
| 29 | 446 | 439.75282007585 | 6.24717992414963 |
| 30 | 446 | 470.515914377362 | -24.515914377362 |
| 31 | 466 | 469.961275828591 | -3.96127582859123 |
| 32 | 476 | 462.346527612452 | 13.6534723875484 |
| 33 | 476 | 468.647152998856 | 7.35284700114431 |
| 34 | 476 | 466.089623728253 | 9.91037627174745 |
| 35 | 476 | 482.579754163414 | -6.5797541634139 |
| 36 | 486 | 488.162096861504 | -2.16209686150444 |
| 37 | 497 | 506.473252808133 | -9.47325280813334 |
| 38 | 507 | 490.819988940176 | 16.1800110598239 |
| 39 | 517 | 505.746414185589 | 11.2535858144106 |
| 40 | 527 | 533.780286606176 | -6.78028660617565 |
| 41 | 527 | 537.201634198006 | -10.2016341980059 |
| 42 | 547 | 550.728897493444 | -3.72889749344449 |
| 43 | 547 | 574.590002872427 | -27.5900028724271 |
| 44 | 557 | 558.138772257289 | -1.13877225728936 |
| 45 | 557 | 547.702585908443 | 9.29741409155702 |
| 46 | 557 | 539.365224935859 | 17.6347750641406 |
| 47 | 567 | 550.893151444633 | 16.106848555367 |
| 48 | 567 | 572.525069634385 | -5.52506963438475 |
| 49 | 598 | 590.758779898276 | 7.2412201017238 |
| 50 | 598 | 596.296239009295 | 1.70376099070495 |
| 51 | 618 | 604.404581747879 | 13.5954182521208 |
| 52 | 628 | 632.212000496731 | -4.21200049673132 |
| 53 | 638 | 638.851804350461 | -0.851804350461293 |
| 54 | 669 | 668.288279903008 | 0.711720096992167 |
| 55 | 679 | 697.485117391437 | -18.4851173914366 |
| 56 | 689 | 705.655095484764 | -16.6550954847644 |
| 57 | 689 | 695.434787885905 | -6.43478788590528 |
| 58 | 689 | 680.50675571684 | 8.49324428315981 |
| 59 | 689 | 685.105926983712 | 3.89407301628751 |
| 60 | 709 | 688.978138263065 | 20.0218617369349 |
| 61 | 719 | 730.169438709828 | -11.169438709828 |
| 62 | 729 | 720.318391432694 | 8.68160856730617 |
| 63 | 790 | 734.99732459321 | 55.0026754067904 |
| 64 | 831 | 789.229629931999 | 41.7703700680014 |
| 65 | 942 | 842.325619978266 | 99.6743800217336 |
| 66 | 952 | 981.709733354863 | -29.7097333548633 |
| 67 | 962 | 1038.8609010221 | -76.860901022095 |
| 68 | 1013 | 1051.57646416504 | -38.576464165038 |
| 69 | 1033 | 1054.52846305375 | -21.5284630537456 |
| 70 | 1033 | 1049.62951028903 | -16.6295102890326 |
| 71 | 1043 | 1048.17816591915 | -5.17816591914925 |
| 72 | 1043 | 1061.05498849761 | -18.0549884976087 |
| 73 | 1053 | 1076.37521539643 | -23.3752153964313 |
| 74 | 1114 | 1057.43969615867 | 56.5603038413283 |
| 75 | 1155 | 1123.2791791123 | 31.7208208877032 |
| 76 | 1215 | 1160.62958900063 | 54.3704109993716 |
| 77 | 1236 | 1244.30645282976 | -8.30645282975956 |
| 78 | 1296 | 1258.95094692604 | 37.0490530739594 |
| 79 | 1317 | 1325.86432254932 | -8.86432254932197 |
| 80 | 1327 | 1403.35723267363 | -76.3572326736275 |
| 81 | 1347 | 1393.11736941427 | -46.1173694142658 |
| 82 | 1367 | 1366.70868536243 | 0.291314637572214 |
| 83 | 1367 | 1373.58936557819 | -6.58936557819084 |
| 84 | 1387 | 1378.79435398678 | 8.20564601322144 |
| 85 | 1408 | 1414.91318335843 | -6.91318335843448 |
| 86 | 1468 | 1442.39269109673 | 25.6073089032743 |
| 87 | 1479 | 1489.72867642672 | -10.7286764267199 |
| 88 | 1499 | 1501.66036291447 | -2.66036291446903 |
| 89 | 1499 | 1509.82175117553 | -10.8217511755283 |
| 90 | 1509 | 1507.7711064686 | 1.22889353140431 |
| 91 | 1519 | 1503.46153177586 | 15.5384682241429 |
| 92 | 1529 | 1543.52505000318 | -14.5250500031811 |
| 93 | 1539 | 1560.8717239913 | -21.8717239913017 |
| 94 | 1590 | 1553.35489402071 | 36.6451059792889 |
| 95 | 1620 | 1578.18009707083 | 41.8199029291691 |
| 96 | 1620 | 1628.91682232236 | -8.91682232235712 |
| 97 | 1651 | 1666.3833907354 | -15.3833907353967 |
| 98 | 1671 | 1714.39737436384 | -43.3973743638376 |
| 99 | 1691 | 1707.7122457398 | -16.7122457398007 |
| 100 | 1711 | 1708.51890598792 | 2.48109401207603 |
| 101 | 1721 | 1705.98003430193 | 15.0199656980685 |
| 102 | 1732 | 1717.30110744437 | 14.6988925556288 |
| 103 | 1732 | 1723.52356985223 | 8.47643014777236 |
| 104 | 1742 | 1751.24679563685 | -9.24679563684526 |
| 105 | 1762 | 1771.14110172388 | -9.14110172387564 |
| 106 | 1782 | 1794.06573868885 | -12.0657386888497 |
| 107 | 1813 | 1785.84214519793 | 27.1578548020732 |
| 108 | 1883 | 1799.1085352379 | 83.8914647621016 |
| 109 | 1904 | 1895.28259399765 | 8.7174060023533 |
| 110 | 1924 | 1970.04314949782 | -46.0431494978181 |
| 111 | 1934 | 1991.18555746365 | -57.1855574636493 |
| 112 | 1964 | 1986.96451930408 | -22.9645193040817 |
| 113 | 1985 | 1975.24392714644 | 9.75607285355591 |
| 114 | 1995 | 1981.96073196544 | 13.0392680345644 |
| 115 | 1995 | 1981.54964711144 | 13.4503528885648 |
| 116 | 2035 | 2006.63455069778 | 28.3654493022161 |
| 117 | 2066 | 2057.4504052287 | 8.54959477129887 |
| 118 | 2086 | 2106.39094191851 | -20.3909419185088 |
| 119 | 2157 | 2119.38336288142 | 37.6166371185759 |
| 120 | 2157 | 2170.69598132164 | -13.6959813216404 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 2183.03493355633 | 2141.32428643687 | 2224.74558067579 |
| 122 | 2224.51161942423 | 2166.26187268609 | 2282.76136616238 |
| 123 | 2265.39421881207 | 2184.90192535111 | 2345.88651227304 |
| 124 | 2318.16057864928 | 2210.65736933067 | 2425.66378796789 |
| 125 | 2349.39572652406 | 2212.2536851536 | 2486.53776789452 |
| 126 | 2369.3328534943 | 2200.50832357477 | 2538.15738341382 |
| 127 | 2373.28242114816 | 2171.86205291947 | 2574.70278937684 |
| 128 | 2408.01785454634 | 2169.47686734784 | 2646.55884174483 |
| 129 | 2442.58593760927 | 2164.68489269216 | 2720.48698252638 |
| 130 | 2480.39292878912 | 2160.5943049325 | 2800.19155264575 |
| 131 | 2530.59630453061 | 2165.01398481458 | 2896.17862424664 |
| 132 | 2540.56626163698 | 2135.31417073104 | 2945.81835254292 |
