| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.405348713655848 |
| beta | 0.0645208222842562 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 83746 | 83742.2852564104 | 3.7147435896477 |
| 14 | 83746 | 83558.5370690149 | 187.462930985101 |
| 15 | 83115 | 82809.8404387609 | 305.159561239096 |
| 16 | 81466 | 81152.8746227794 | 313.125377220582 |
| 17 | 89981 | 89753.3687100858 | 227.631289914236 |
| 18 | 91279 | 91067.2862186113 | 211.713781388709 |
| 19 | 89319 | 86167.4552942502 | 3151.54470574984 |
| 20 | 84728 | 84508.5380979335 | 219.461902066541 |
| 21 | 86692 | 85243.6362574798 | 1448.36374252016 |
| 22 | 83746 | 86253.831213707 | -2507.83121370702 |
| 23 | 85075 | 85906.0909062125 | -831.090906212456 |
| 24 | 85710 | 86344.9459123975 | -634.945912397525 |
| 25 | 86372 | 87008.6193349581 | -636.619334958072 |
| 26 | 84728 | 86712.6051094252 | -1984.60510942523 |
| 27 | 85075 | 85134.671372028 | -59.6713720279804 |
| 28 | 82764 | 83306.2365345758 | -542.236534575815 |
| 29 | 89981 | 91458.4787976779 | -1477.47879767792 |
| 30 | 92261 | 91976.4794728116 | 284.520527188361 |
| 31 | 90301 | 88760.9517704854 | 1540.04822951458 |
| 32 | 86692 | 84569.7204360417 | 2122.27956395835 |
| 33 | 90617 | 86721.1272567594 | 3895.87274324062 |
| 34 | 86372 | 86349.1070887218 | 22.8929112781771 |
| 35 | 90301 | 88068.7021231211 | 2232.2978768789 |
| 36 | 89981 | 89990.4876285376 | -9.48762853759399 |
| 37 | 90964 | 91047.6044636175 | -83.604463617492 |
| 38 | 87355 | 90329.5456716521 | -2974.54567165206 |
| 39 | 91279 | 89624.4878219364 | 1654.5121780636 |
| 40 | 90964 | 88378.2515683915 | 2585.74843160847 |
| 41 | 96852 | 97498.3975237373 | -646.39752373728 |
| 42 | 95523 | 99678.9087417866 | -4155.90874178655 |
| 43 | 90301 | 95571.7850965973 | -5270.78509659728 |
| 44 | 87670 | 88949.6143642168 | -1279.6143642168 |
| 45 | 91279 | 90671.3646378168 | 607.635362183151 |
| 46 | 86372 | 86472.017859474 | -100.017859473955 |
| 47 | 89981 | 89261.030758743 | 719.969241257044 |
| 48 | 90617 | 89002.5766608078 | 1614.42333919216 |
| 49 | 91946 | 90482.202390238 | 1463.79760976195 |
| 50 | 89004 | 88521.081349325 | 482.918650675012 |
| 51 | 90617 | 91909.4041984154 | -1292.4041984154 |
| 52 | 91599 | 89884.5548188231 | 1714.44518117687 |
| 53 | 95208 | 96568.8866021651 | -1360.88660216515 |
| 54 | 92261 | 96193.5261191077 | -3932.52611910773 |
| 55 | 88337 | 91340.5107844819 | -3003.51078448193 |
| 56 | 84092 | 87896.5517036278 | -3804.5517036278 |
| 57 | 88021 | 89536.8616898578 | -1515.86168985783 |
| 58 | 77221 | 83820.1988158138 | -6599.19881581384 |
| 59 | 82448 | 84056.6551709317 | -1608.6551709317 |
| 60 | 85390 | 82919.5546339679 | 2470.44536603206 |
| 61 | 88337 | 84212.3561123441 | 4124.64388765591 |
| 62 | 84092 | 82371.8731209445 | 1720.12687905546 |
| 63 | 84092 | 84863.7043280108 | -771.704328010761 |
| 64 | 84092 | 84509.2705212886 | -417.270521288636 |
| 65 | 86372 | 88116.3361022967 | -1744.3361022967 |
| 66 | 83115 | 85661.8596067367 | -2546.85960673675 |
| 67 | 78839 | 81564.7460054615 | -2725.74600546148 |
| 68 | 75261 | 77406.0864410822 | -2145.08644108224 |
| 69 | 77857 | 80772.4796435837 | -2915.47964358373 |
| 70 | 67724 | 71121.514304105 | -3397.51430410496 |
| 71 | 73933 | 75362.9814273272 | -1429.98142732721 |
| 72 | 77541 | 76468.200247356 | 1072.79975264403 |
| 73 | 78204 | 77885.8377264237 | 318.162273576323 |
| 74 | 74595 | 72680.6991912151 | 1914.30080878493 |
| 75 | 74910 | 73382.6922472305 | 1527.3077527695 |
| 76 | 73933 | 73844.2759350159 | 88.7240649841115 |
| 77 | 77221 | 76553.8893968346 | 667.11060316542 |
| 78 | 74910 | 74349.3205763015 | 560.679423698515 |
| 79 | 70355 | 71236.3941973969 | -881.394197396949 |
| 80 | 67062 | 68049.7916538721 | -987.791653872104 |
| 81 | 72630 | 71336.60616276 | 1293.39383723997 |
| 82 | 60537 | 63124.5648933717 | -2587.56489337173 |
| 83 | 68390 | 68905.0280311948 | -515.028031194845 |
| 84 | 71968 | 71934.0213599612 | 33.9786400388111 |
| 85 | 71968 | 72519.2764304592 | -551.276430459213 |
| 86 | 67724 | 67925.5676026072 | -201.567602607232 |
| 87 | 63799 | 67499.1427144398 | -3700.14271443985 |
| 88 | 63484 | 64808.9871804085 | -1324.98718040854 |
| 89 | 67062 | 67075.1762462097 | -13.1762462096522 |
| 90 | 63799 | 64299.4560923665 | -500.456092366527 |
| 91 | 57595 | 59639.0080311028 | -2044.00803110284 |
| 92 | 53319 | 55627.6049069193 | -2308.6049069193 |
| 93 | 57911 | 59410.7283750367 | -1499.72837503666 |
| 94 | 47115 | 47360.8208013322 | -245.820801332193 |
| 95 | 56928 | 54986.3275441992 | 1941.6724558008 |
| 96 | 62150 | 59065.2438669125 | 3084.7561330875 |
| 97 | 63799 | 60346.5283804804 | 3452.47161951959 |
| 98 | 60191 | 57495.8236235802 | 2695.1763764198 |
| 99 | 55631 | 56151.0529328365 | -520.052932836501 |
| 100 | 58893 | 56233.39719989 | 2659.60280011003 |
| 101 | 60191 | 61070.0806577908 | -879.080657790822 |
| 102 | 59208 | 57806.2352144052 | 1401.76478559479 |
| 103 | 49391 | 53201.3539353552 | -3810.35393535515 |
| 104 | 44835 | 48472.8050325409 | -3637.80503254085 |
| 105 | 48093 | 52319.5583982989 | -4226.55839829893 |
| 106 | 38280 | 39960.0755580888 | -1680.07555808879 |
| 107 | 48413 | 48317.5979988887 | 95.4020011112661 |
| 108 | 52022 | 52292.1741768706 | -270.174176870591 |
| 109 | 54964 | 52308.7685791582 | 2655.23142084185 |
| 110 | 50057 | 48540.2904624718 | 1516.70953752819 |
| 111 | 45466 | 44630.7820768221 | 835.217923177857 |
| 112 | 48093 | 47013.6075653139 | 1079.39243468609 |
| 113 | 49391 | 48924.4817408098 | 466.518259190234 |
| 114 | 46795 | 47416.5824213123 | -621.582421312341 |
| 115 | 36982 | 38693.4310353743 | -1711.43103537425 |
| 116 | 32706 | 34774.4624778512 | -2068.46247785118 |
| 117 | 36631 | 38804.4657981421 | -2173.46579814215 |
| 118 | 25835 | 28742.3880323563 | -2907.38803235632 |
| 119 | 37613 | 37577.0298545343 | 35.970145465697 |
| 120 | 44835 | 41227.3896143949 | 3607.61038560508 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 44574.1171313775 | 40516.640508606 | 48631.5937541491 |
| 122 | 39001.5593848031 | 34582.4586001311 | 43420.660169475 |
| 123 | 33981.5762272386 | 29188.1819263807 | 38774.9705280964 |
| 124 | 36058.7734301029 | 30878.9887155061 | 41238.5581446997 |
| 125 | 37027.1685746534 | 31449.3916291922 | 42604.9455201146 |
| 126 | 34530.4228766574 | 28543.4847255865 | 40517.3610277283 |
| 127 | 25274.7024262361 | 18867.8163172228 | 31681.5885352495 |
| 128 | 21745.4640075064 | 14908.1837857599 | 28582.7442292529 |
| 129 | 26513.8859430007 | 19236.0714575106 | 33791.7004284908 |
| 130 | 16915.6459027021 | 9187.43396283869 | 24643.8578425656 |
| 131 | 28774.3575873183 | 20586.1373443468 | 36962.5778302898 |
| 132 | 34628.3687521876 | 25970.7606428367 | 43285.9768615386 |
