| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.15308162522971 |
| beta | 0.00940485503733336 |
| gamma | 0.766853296758206 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1440 | 1428.3453525641 | 11.6546474358975 |
| 14 | 1350 | 1342.6440589386 | 7.35594106139706 |
| 15 | 1410 | 1410.67030278045 | -0.670302780449902 |
| 16 | 1380 | 1382.46691112855 | -2.46691112854978 |
| 17 | 1395 | 1400.85994011298 | -5.85994011298135 |
| 18 | 1455 | 1468.72512208875 | -13.725122088749 |
| 19 | 1395 | 1390.99152902263 | 4.00847097736641 |
| 20 | 1170 | 1241.60339424197 | -71.6033942419731 |
| 21 | 1215 | 1305.53738408878 | -90.5373840887783 |
| 22 | 1305 | 1228.94258037576 | 76.0574196242351 |
| 23 | 1080 | 1209.20988063516 | -129.209880635156 |
| 24 | 1320 | 1347.86850414322 | -27.868504143225 |
| 25 | 1380 | 1375.19476004513 | 4.8052399548676 |
| 26 | 1380 | 1285.29358452035 | 94.7064154796526 |
| 27 | 1425 | 1361.24508238572 | 63.7549176142763 |
| 28 | 1425 | 1341.59617572616 | 83.4038242738407 |
| 29 | 1335 | 1370.91341821786 | -35.9134182178598 |
| 30 | 1440 | 1429.00918429897 | 10.9908157010295 |
| 31 | 1170 | 1366.55138575042 | -196.551385750422 |
| 32 | 1170 | 1137.04037078386 | 32.959629216138 |
| 33 | 1140 | 1204.52086199149 | -64.520861991492 |
| 34 | 1290 | 1239.97991855473 | 50.0200814452689 |
| 35 | 1110 | 1082.78474260774 | 27.2152573922624 |
| 36 | 1530 | 1311.26847895349 | 218.731521046506 |
| 37 | 1335 | 1397.98197060162 | -62.9819706016156 |
| 38 | 1560 | 1356.41057839131 | 203.589421608689 |
| 39 | 1380 | 1429.40434665298 | -49.4043466529811 |
| 40 | 1350 | 1405.50724958866 | -55.5072495886623 |
| 41 | 1425 | 1336.18092738319 | 88.8190726168102 |
| 42 | 1485 | 1444.12624988474 | 40.8737501152552 |
| 43 | 1260 | 1251.78797787175 | 8.21202212824619 |
| 44 | 1110 | 1203.31179719477 | -93.3117971947661 |
| 45 | 1260 | 1188.6013720486 | 71.3986279513983 |
| 46 | 1440 | 1319.90170488904 | 120.09829511096 |
| 47 | 1185 | 1159.36873083708 | 25.6312691629207 |
| 48 | 1515 | 1512.73565619616 | 2.26434380383603 |
| 49 | 1350 | 1383.7812057112 | -33.7812057112035 |
| 50 | 1455 | 1520.28143812878 | -65.2814381287776 |
| 51 | 1380 | 1387.8925410565 | -7.89254105649798 |
| 52 | 1470 | 1366.53269815414 | 103.46730184586 |
| 53 | 1335 | 1415.65198312617 | -80.6519831261735 |
| 54 | 1500 | 1466.64678087336 | 33.353219126644 |
| 55 | 1320 | 1252.06492237399 | 67.9350776260092 |
| 56 | 1110 | 1147.00157488644 | -37.0015748864364 |
| 57 | 1290 | 1248.17167552134 | 41.8283244786603 |
| 58 | 1410 | 1406.81863495717 | 3.18136504282552 |
| 59 | 1140 | 1167.111449416 | -27.1114494159967 |
| 60 | 1515 | 1497.22894566875 | 17.7710543312471 |
| 61 | 1305 | 1347.26083830474 | -42.2608383047441 |
| 62 | 1470 | 1462.01534864342 | 7.98465135658375 |
| 63 | 1380 | 1378.23010439412 | 1.76989560588231 |
| 64 | 1425 | 1430.80336127791 | -5.80336127791179 |
| 65 | 1320 | 1343.58944669404 | -23.5894466940383 |
| 66 | 1470 | 1477.41632471369 | -7.41632471369144 |
| 67 | 1365 | 1279.04910088117 | 85.9508991188291 |
| 68 | 1095 | 1108.61329307617 | -13.6132930761703 |
| 69 | 1320 | 1264.61645017736 | 55.3835498226429 |
| 70 | 1230 | 1400.31394838379 | -170.313948383789 |
| 71 | 1035 | 1114.1992190543 | -79.1992190543012 |
| 72 | 1485 | 1465.24296795043 | 19.7570320495736 |
| 73 | 1200 | 1276.34374038251 | -76.3437403825058 |
| 74 | 1440 | 1418.21756382419 | 21.7824361758078 |
| 75 | 1365 | 1332.23235861146 | 32.7676413885383 |
| 76 | 1425 | 1384.40098522624 | 40.5990147737648 |
| 77 | 1410 | 1292.57456664525 | 117.425433354752 |
| 78 | 1515 | 1458.5306169219 | 56.4693830781009 |
| 79 | 1335 | 1330.71213041327 | 4.28786958672913 |
| 80 | 990 | 1083.12499972486 | -93.1249997248608 |
| 81 | 1290 | 1271.66569999121 | 18.3343000087873 |
| 82 | 1260 | 1254.95480336043 | 5.04519663957149 |
| 83 | 1110 | 1054.95751762689 | 55.0424823731071 |
| 84 | 1470 | 1491.11042578775 | -21.11042578775 |
| 85 | 1230 | 1233.773372039 | -3.77337203900333 |
| 86 | 1620 | 1450.82214786263 | 169.17785213737 |
| 87 | 1395 | 1395.08367924672 | -0.0836792467164287 |
| 88 | 1455 | 1447.81098829423 | 7.18901170577101 |
| 89 | 1395 | 1401.21929763802 | -6.21929763802063 |
| 90 | 1515 | 1508.93428626941 | 6.06571373058887 |
| 91 | 1320 | 1339.71276168035 | -19.7127616803457 |
| 92 | 1110 | 1025.35380543326 | 84.6461945667443 |
| 93 | 1290 | 1313.9207456961 | -23.9207456961046 |
| 94 | 1215 | 1282.47391380621 | -67.4739138062146 |
| 95 | 1125 | 1104.10552826441 | 20.8944717355882 |
| 96 | 1335 | 1485.78230781901 | -150.782307819007 |
| 97 | 1185 | 1219.87767747092 | -34.8776774709197 |
| 98 | 1500 | 1544.46849367161 | -44.4684936716142 |
| 99 | 1335 | 1345.76641310978 | -10.7664131097772 |
| 100 | 1455 | 1401.23702494147 | 53.7629750585313 |
| 101 | 1350 | 1352.7891114877 | -2.78911148770385 |
| 102 | 1485 | 1468.73513551725 | 16.2648644827464 |
| 103 | 1365 | 1284.07474037734 | 80.9252596226611 |
| 104 | 1095 | 1052.78566835354 | 42.2143316464612 |
| 105 | 1275 | 1264.17272277818 | 10.8272772218199 |
| 106 | 1260 | 1209.63483859993 | 50.3651614000676 |
| 107 | 1245 | 1106.74282382226 | 138.25717617774 |
| 108 | 1425 | 1395.1025274047 | 29.897472595303 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 1232.60686869134 | 1096.25318582394 | 1368.96055155875 |
| 110 | 1556.83270515266 | 1418.86077719676 | 1694.80463310857 |
| 111 | 1387.41494205464 | 1247.8137607039 | 1527.01612340538 |
| 112 | 1487.04737201036 | 1345.80603706 | 1628.28870696072 |
| 113 | 1394.16777532115 | 1251.27549221574 | 1537.06005842656 |
| 114 | 1523.44649269407 | 1378.89257013513 | 1668.000415253 |
| 115 | 1378.79820353904 | 1232.5720511519 | 1525.02435592618 |
| 116 | 1110.37064864898 | 962.461774707987 | 1258.27952258998 |
| 117 | 1295.24095420668 | 1145.63896341809 | 1444.84294499528 |
| 118 | 1265.03857727539 | 1113.73316861695 | 1416.34398593382 |
| 119 | 1211.76121243813 | 1058.74217705448 | 1364.78024782179 |
| 120 | 1408.62380067545 | 1253.88101982815 | 1563.36658152276 |
