| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.14101826168975 |
| beta | 0.189361151263863 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 410.25 | 410.25 | 0 |
| 4 | 395.25 | 402.75 | -7.5 |
| 5 | 546.75 | 393.992087684456 | 152.757912315544 |
| 6 | 539.25 | 411.912620224723 | 127.337379775277 |
| 7 | 425.25 | 429.648731944021 | -4.39873194402128 |
| 8 | 349.5 | 428.690185174595 | -79.1901851745947 |
| 9 | 357 | 415.070032044041 | -58.0700320440408 |
| 10 | 357 | 402.877540040066 | -45.8775400400656 |
| 11 | 364.5 | 391.17932666144 | -26.6793266614403 |
| 12 | 380.25 | 381.47598375282 | -1.22598375282013 |
| 13 | 334.5 | 375.329289104872 | -40.829289104872 |
| 14 | 288.75 | 362.507525141282 | -73.7575251412825 |
| 15 | 251.25 | 343.072703321387 | -91.8227033213869 |
| 16 | 251.25 | 318.63838490285 | -67.3883849028495 |
| 17 | 395.25 | 295.850253917825 | 99.3997460821752 |
| 18 | 410.25 | 299.236604464377 | 111.013395535623 |
| 19 | 296.25 | 307.225124597302 | -10.9751245973016 |
| 20 | 167.25 | 297.717962748106 | -130.467962748106 |
| 21 | 235.5 | 267.876192941478 | -32.3761929414781 |
| 22 | 235.5 | 251.002600203589 | -15.5026002035885 |
| 23 | 288.75 | 236.094520351898 | 52.6554796481019 |
| 24 | 319.5 | 232.204053743286 | 87.2959462567138 |
| 25 | 312 | 235.529622378712 | 76.4703776212879 |
| 26 | 235.5 | 239.370605725005 | -3.87060572500474 |
| 27 | 273.75 | 231.778685000371 | 41.9713149996286 |
| 28 | 258.75 | 231.772088238447 | 26.9779117615534 |
| 29 | 387.75 | 230.371549254777 | 157.378450745223 |
| 30 | 357 | 251.562404236297 | 105.437595763703 |
| 31 | 235.5 | 268.244190363969 | -32.7441903639693 |
| 32 | 144.75 | 264.565440644117 | -119.815440644117 |
| 33 | 228 | 245.408577279352 | -17.4085772793518 |
| 34 | 251.25 | 240.228083910372 | 11.021916089628 |
| 35 | 273.75 | 239.351131713156 | 34.3988682868437 |
| 36 | 303.75 | 242.689322742998 | 61.0606772570022 |
| 37 | 243 | 251.41784221854 | -8.41784221854027 |
| 38 | 190.5 | 250.1238368101 | -59.6238368101003 |
| 39 | 213 | 240.016693062042 | -27.0166930620417 |
| 40 | 220.5 | 233.786315012481 | -13.286315012481 |
| 41 | 417.75 | 229.137381484149 | 188.612618515851 |
| 42 | 417.75 | 257.996479096221 | 159.753520903779 |
| 43 | 303.75 | 287.051875965289 | 16.6981240347115 |
| 44 | 288.75 | 296.379745800321 | -7.6297458003213 |
| 45 | 334.5 | 302.073201716273 | 32.4267982837268 |
| 46 | 312 | 314.281266977423 | -2.28126697742312 |
| 47 | 372.75 | 321.533943668978 | 51.2160563310215 |
| 48 | 448.5 | 337.698361732459 | 110.801638267541 |
| 49 | 463.5 | 365.224213276096 | 98.2757867239042 |
| 50 | 357 | 393.607986724172 | -36.6079867241722 |
| 51 | 327 | 401.993127915903 | -74.9931279159027 |
| 52 | 296.25 | 402.962693201225 | -106.712693201225 |
| 53 | 501.75 | 396.609630890232 | 105.140369109768 |
| 54 | 516.75 | 422.939322429911 | 93.8106775700886 |
| 55 | 478.5 | 450.176382770306 | 28.3236172296937 |
| 56 | 516.75 | 468.934908023028 | 47.8150919769716 |
| 57 | 509.25 | 491.718911751481 | 17.5310882485192 |
| 58 | 448.5 | 510.700457235166 | -62.2004572351656 |
| 59 | 516.75 | 516.777436303369 | -0.0274363033693135 |
| 60 | 592.5 | 531.62121406533 | 60.8787859346698 |
| 61 | 623.25 | 556.679550791445 | 66.5704492085546 |
| 62 | 531.75 | 584.318172006037 | -52.5681720060372 |
| 63 | 471 | 593.752324063728 | -122.752324063728 |
| 64 | 516.75 | 590.011326997728 | -73.2613269977278 |
| 65 | 714 | 591.293139225098 | 122.706860774902 |
| 66 | 774.75 | 623.486732617507 | 151.263267382493 |
| 67 | 759.75 | 663.746541396684 | 96.0034586033162 |
| 68 | 789.75 | 698.777324873662 | 90.972675126338 |
| 69 | 782.25 | 735.527953958118 | 46.7220460418815 |
| 70 | 706.5 | 767.286072818126 | -60.7860728181262 |
| 71 | 835.5 | 782.260390014522 | 53.2396099854784 |
| 72 | 866.25 | 814.736088344742 | 51.5139116552576 |
| 73 | 911.25 | 848.344027274171 | 62.9059727258293 |
| 74 | 774.75 | 885.238256970882 | -110.488256970882 |
| 75 | 721.5 | 894.730323855005 | -173.230323855005 |
| 76 | 782.25 | 890.74877830057 | -108.49877830057 |
| 77 | 927 | 892.998278628684 | 34.0017213713163 |
| 78 | 1056 | 916.250912609896 | 139.749087390104 |
| 79 | 1025.25 | 958.147629364074 | 67.1023706359261 |
| 80 | 1025.25 | 991.591692531789 | 33.658307468211 |
| 81 | 1040.25 | 1021.21832263512 | 19.0316773648842 |
| 82 | 987.75 | 1049.29054090689 | -61.5405409068894 |
| 83 | 1124.25 | 1064.35726454469 | 59.8927354553093 |
| 84 | 1124.25 | 1098.14763622341 | 26.1023637765904 |
| 85 | 1101 | 1127.86996977496 | -26.8699697749616 |
| 86 | 972 | 1149.40471790765 | -177.404717907649 |
| 87 | 995.25 | 1144.97401187077 | -149.72401187077 |
| 88 | 1010.25 | 1140.44865364013 | -130.198653640132 |
| 89 | 1109.25 | 1135.19998331257 | -25.9499833125672 |
| 90 | 1238.25 | 1143.95932698274 | 94.2906730172592 |
| 91 | 1146.75 | 1172.19267870111 | -25.4426787011114 |
| 92 | 1192.5 | 1182.86203576656 | 9.6379642334432 |
| 93 | 1154.25 | 1198.73577034263 | -44.4857703426333 |
| 94 | 1131.75 | 1205.78914950555 | -74.0391495055528 |
| 95 | 1306.5 | 1206.69786693939 | 99.8021330606064 |
| 96 | 1268.25 | 1234.78643417276 | 33.4635658272368 |
| 97 | 1215 | 1254.41364229914 | -39.4136422991437 |
| 98 | 1139.25 | 1262.71135573615 | -123.461355736154 |
| 99 | 1215 | 1255.85997118048 | -40.8599711804809 |
| 100 | 1253.25 | 1259.56579093515 | -6.31579093515256 |
| 101 | 1299 | 1267.97431797176 | 31.0256820282418 |
| 102 | 1359.75 | 1282.47716520343 | 77.2728347965678 |
| 103 | 1299 | 1305.56515142743 | -6.56515142742592 |
| 104 | 1336.5 | 1316.65513883471 | 19.8448611652943 |
| 105 | 1290.75 | 1331.99934518536 | -41.2493451853559 |
| 106 | 1283.25 | 1337.6266558021 | -54.3766558020964 |
| 107 | 1473 | 1339.95073537117 | 133.049264628825 |
| 108 | 1488.75 | 1372.25815755806 | 116.491842441941 |
| 109 | 1428 | 1405.34140683031 | 22.6585931696948 |
| 110 | 1321.5 | 1425.79751543383 | -104.297515433828 |
| 111 | 1412.25 | 1425.56539806358 | -13.3153980635766 |
| 112 | 1450.5 | 1437.80785459029 | 12.6921454097092 |
| 113 | 1496.25 | 1454.05677287518 | 42.1932271248222 |
| 114 | 1564.5 | 1475.59258421499 | 88.9074157850112 |
| 115 | 1496.25 | 1506.09007777847 | -9.84007777846591 |
| 116 | 1549.5 | 1522.39960811349 | 27.1003918865131 |
| 117 | 1526.25 | 1544.64209133973 | -18.3920913397346 |
| 118 | 1443 | 1559.97817265039 | -116.978172650387 |
| 119 | 1617.75 | 1558.28810350704 | 59.4618964929616 |
| 120 | 1617.75 | 1583.06713984704 | 34.6828601529617 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 1605.27802916345 | 1452.3859514101 | 1758.17010691681 |
| 122 | 1622.59800183067 | 1467.570369439 | 1777.62563422233 |
| 123 | 1639.91797449788 | 1482.06613068547 | 1797.76981831029 |
| 124 | 1657.2379471651 | 1495.80610933565 | 1818.66978499454 |
| 125 | 1674.55791983231 | 1508.73872531542 | 1840.3771143492 |
| 126 | 1691.87789249953 | 1520.82865085868 | 1862.92713414037 |
| 127 | 1709.19786516674 | 1532.05642702408 | 1886.3393033094 |
| 128 | 1726.51783783396 | 1542.41710223122 | 1910.61857343669 |
| 129 | 1743.83781050117 | 1551.91815088344 | 1935.7574701189 |
| 130 | 1761.15778316838 | 1560.57699830248 | 1961.73856803429 |
| 131 | 1778.4777558356 | 1568.4184669822 | 1988.537044689 |
| 132 | 1795.79772850281 | 1575.47239193998 | 2016.12306506565 |
