| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.628749767969885 |
| beta | 0.218314234003923 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 29357 | 29360 | -3 |
| 4 | 29380 | 29381.7019556242 | -1.70195562416484 |
| 5 | 29402 | 29403.9864373689 | -1.98643736889426 |
| 6 | 29426 | 29425.8193829096 | 0.180617090427404 |
| 7 | 29448 | 29449.039655848 | -1.03965584797334 |
| 8 | 29471 | 29471.3499740746 | -0.349974074593774 |
| 9 | 29495 | 29494.0458903565 | 0.954109643535048 |
| 10 | 29517 | 29517.6927148566 | -0.692714856617386 |
| 11 | 29540 | 29540.209013313 | -0.209013313007745 |
| 12 | 29563 | 29563.0007487853 | -0.000748785292671528 |
| 13 | 29586 | 29585.923327749 | 0.0766722509797546 |
| 14 | 29609 | 29608.9051095897 | 0.0948904102915549 |
| 15 | 29631 | 29631.9113712283 | -0.911371228281496 |
| 16 | 29654 | 29654.1598467016 | -0.159846701586503 |
| 17 | 29677 | 29676.8589016853 | 0.141098314652481 |
| 18 | 29700 | 29699.7665436418 | 0.233456358215335 |
| 19 | 29723 | 29722.7643010893 | 0.235698910710198 |
| 20 | 29746 | 29745.7958217578 | 0.204178242212947 |
| 21 | 29769 | 29768.8355503446 | 0.164449655410863 |
| 22 | 29792 | 29791.8728727776 | 0.127127222447598 |
| 23 | 29815 | 29814.9041788607 | 0.0958211393153761 |
| 24 | 29837 | 29837.9289541423 | -0.928954142298608 |
| 25 | 29861 | 29860.1818892908 | 0.818110709235043 |
| 26 | 29884 | 29883.6455890454 | 0.354410954627383 |
| 27 | 29905 | 29906.866385915 | -1.86638591504743 |
| 28 | 29928 | 29928.4346677608 | -0.43466776083369 |
| 29 | 29951 | 29950.8434773833 | 0.156522616733128 |
| 30 | 29974 | 29973.6454828992 | 0.354517100837256 |
| 31 | 29996 | 29996.6206401993 | -0.620640199340414 |
| 32 | 30020 | 30018.8974753815 | 1.10252461854543 |
| 33 | 30043 | 30042.4090881112 | 0.590911888812116 |
| 34 | 30065 | 30065.6801359904 | -0.680135990394774 |
| 35 | 30089 | 30088.0586539274 | 0.941346072555461 |
| 36 | 30111 | 30111.5858922266 | -0.585892226561555 |
| 37 | 30134 | 30134.0724572889 | -0.0724572889448609 |
| 38 | 30158 | 30156.8718985977 | 1.12810140227884 |
| 39 | 30179 | 30180.5810397711 | -1.58103977106657 |
| 40 | 30202 | 30202.3697875982 | -0.369787598192488 |
| 41 | 30224 | 30224.8693510444 | -0.869351044435462 |
| 42 | 30248 | 30246.9354825978 | 1.064517402192 |
| 43 | 30270 | 30270.363654495 | -0.363654495020455 |
| 44 | 30293 | 30292.8439466003 | 0.156053399743541 |
| 45 | 30317 | 30315.6724255974 | 1.32757440260684 |
| 46 | 30339 | 30339.4197276855 | -0.419727685453836 |
| 47 | 30362 | 30362.0108000603 | -0.0108000602667744 |
| 48 | 30385 | 30384.857503114 | 0.142496886001027 |
| 49 | 30408 | 30407.8201514256 | 0.179848574392963 |
| 50 | 30431 | 30430.8309715215 | 0.169028478503606 |
| 51 | 30452 | 30453.8581901828 | -1.85819018276015 |
| 52 | 30476 | 30475.3557310611 | 0.64426893885684 |
| 53 | 30498 | 30498.5151281229 | -0.515128122933675 |
| 54 | 30521 | 30520.874845477 | 0.125154523004312 |
| 55 | 30544 | 30543.6543197347 | 0.345680265269039 |
| 56 | 30567 | 30566.6198993116 | 0.380100688355014 |
| 57 | 30590 | 30589.6592952517 | 0.340704748316057 |
| 58 | 30613 | 30612.720687849 | 0.279312150985788 |
| 59 | 30636 | 30635.7818196541 | 0.218180345880683 |
| 60 | 30659 | 30658.8344633814 | 0.165536618642363 |
| 61 | 30682 | 30681.8767297652 | 0.123270234766096 |
| 62 | 30705 | 30704.9093418618 | 0.0906581382187142 |
| 63 | 30727 | 30727.9338933017 | -0.933893301709759 |
| 64 | 30750 | 30750.1860673751 | -0.186067375063431 |
| 65 | 30773 | 30772.8828962836 | 0.117103716420388 |
| 66 | 30796 | 30795.78641819 | 0.213581810039614 |
| 67 | 30818 | 30818.7799179876 | -0.77991798759831 |
| 68 | 30842 | 30841.0416995567 | 0.95830044327522 |
| 69 | 30865 | 30864.5279266943 | 0.472073305736558 |
| 70 | 30887 | 30887.7732377855 | -0.773237785520905 |
| 71 | 30911 | 30910.1294213139 | 0.870578686066438 |
| 72 | 30933 | 30933.6386540717 | -0.638654071659403 |
| 73 | 30956 | 30956.1112922167 | -0.111292216690345 |
| 74 | 30980 | 30978.9002324769 | 1.09976752312286 |
| 75 | 31001 | 31002.6015858829 | -1.60158588289778 |
| 76 | 31024 | 31024.3846222371 | -0.384622237063013 |
| 77 | 31046 | 31046.8800290206 | -0.880029020583606 |
| 78 | 31070 | 31068.9431516993 | 1.05684830069004 |
| 79 | 31092 | 31092.3691538517 | -0.369153851701412 |
| 80 | 31115 | 31114.8478855694 | 0.152114430649817 |
| 81 | 31139 | 31137.6752445895 | 1.32475541045278 |
| 82 | 31161 | 31161.4217439369 | -0.421743936884013 |
| 83 | 31184 | 31184.0122415332 | -0.0122415332152741 |
| 84 | 31207 | 31206.8585333365 | 0.141466663513711 |
| 85 | 31230 | 31229.8208875577 | 0.179112442256155 |
| 86 | 31253 | 31252.8314974273 | 0.168502572672878 |
| 87 | 31274 | 31275.8585658536 | -1.85856585355214 |
| 88 | 31298 | 31297.3559993907 | 0.644000609318027 |
| 89 | 31320 | 31320.5153197698 | -0.515319769750931 |
| 90 | 31343 | 31342.8749823489 | 0.125017651076632 |
| 91 | 31366 | 31365.6544174837 | 0.345582516263676 |
| 92 | 31389 | 31388.6199691187 | 0.380030881260609 |
| 93 | 31412 | 31411.6593451033 | 0.340654896728665 |
| 94 | 31435 | 31434.7207234492 | 0.27927655077292 |
| 95 | 31458 | 31457.7818450768 | 0.218154923153634 |
| 96 | 31481 | 31480.834481536 | 0.165518463967601 |
| 97 | 31504 | 31503.8767427296 | 0.123257270352042 |
| 98 | 31527 | 31526.9093511198 | 0.0906488802465901 |
| 99 | 31548 | 31549.9338999129 | -1.93389991286313 |
| 100 | 31571 | 31571.4200573042 | -0.420057304156217 |
| 101 | 31594 | 31593.8003837085 | 0.199616291505663 |
| 102 | 31617 | 31616.5977300774 | 0.402269922640698 |
| 103 | 31640 | 31639.5777124604 | 0.422287539644458 |
| 104 | 31663 | 31662.6282462247 | 0.371753775347315 |
| 105 | 31686 | 31685.6980356873 | 0.301964312744531 |
| 106 | 31709 | 31708.7653941801 | 0.234605819929129 |
| 107 | 31732 | 31731.8226042097 | 0.177395790342416 |
| 108 | 31754 | 31754.8681936838 | -0.868193683825666 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 31777.1371963919 | 31775.6158513826 | 31778.6585414012 |
| 110 | 31799.9520756772 | 31798.0356768786 | 31801.8684744759 |
| 111 | 31822.7669549626 | 31820.4087754412 | 31825.1251344839 |
| 112 | 31845.5818342479 | 31842.7415900065 | 31848.4220784893 |
| 113 | 31868.3967135332 | 31865.0384800304 | 31871.754947036 |
| 114 | 31891.2115928185 | 31887.3025695141 | 31895.120616123 |
| 115 | 31914.0264721039 | 31909.5362162121 | 31918.5167279956 |
| 116 | 31936.8413513892 | 31931.7412774279 | 31941.9414253505 |
| 117 | 31959.6562306745 | 31953.919267164 | 31965.3931941851 |
| 118 | 31982.4711099599 | 31976.071453444 | 31988.8707664757 |
| 119 | 32005.2859892452 | 31998.1989213165 | 32012.3730571738 |
| 120 | 32028.1008685305 | 32020.3026153255 | 32035.8991217356 |
