| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.14114221711203 |
| beta | 0.189181833960606 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 56064 | 56065 | -1 |
| 4 | 54019 | 55042.8321562394 | -1023.83215623941 |
| 5 | 74712 | 53848.9616153751 | 20863.0383846249 |
| 6 | 73689 | 56301.3278348968 | 17387.6721651032 |
| 7 | 58109 | 58727.4508452954 | -618.450845295367 |
| 8 | 47763 | 58595.6361402768 | -10832.6361402768 |
| 9 | 48785 | 56732.9205718016 | -7947.92057180163 |
| 10 | 48785 | 55065.138407655 | -6280.13840765502 |
| 11 | 49808 | 53465.0613270477 | -3657.06132704771 |
| 12 | 51964 | 52137.5619792107 | -173.561979210666 |
| 13 | 45718 | 51297.0970799008 | -5579.09707990084 |
| 14 | 39462 | 49544.7124685305 | -10082.7124685305 |
| 15 | 34339 | 46887.453610789 | -12548.453610789 |
| 16 | 34339 | 43547.1115016778 | -9208.11150167785 |
| 17 | 54019 | 40432.3618941054 | 13586.6381058946 |
| 18 | 56064 | 40897.6979928251 | 15166.3020071749 |
| 19 | 40484 | 41990.9550293769 | -1506.95502937691 |
| 20 | 22859 | 40690.673576068 | -17831.673576068 |
| 21 | 32183 | 36610.1519459917 | -4427.1519459917 |
| 22 | 32183 | 34303.3624279209 | -2120.36242792094 |
| 23 | 39462 | 32265.5413472736 | 7196.45865272636 |
| 24 | 43663 | 31734.8736040209 | 11928.1263959791 |
| 25 | 42640 | 32190.5433223156 | 10449.4566776844 |
| 26 | 32183 | 32716.5269400416 | -533.526940041636 |
| 27 | 37417 | 31678.1019066681 | 5738.89809333189 |
| 28 | 35362 | 31678.2182861548 | 3683.78171384523 |
| 29 | 52987 | 31486.6336410298 | 21500.3663589702 |
| 30 | 48785 | 34383.814221306 | 14401.185778694 |
| 31 | 32183 | 36663.5346030731 | -4480.53460307308 |
| 32 | 19782 | 36158.6099177392 | -16376.6099177392 |
| 33 | 31160 | 33537.3660257469 | -2377.36602574693 |
| 34 | 34339 | 32828.5271122521 | 1510.47288774788 |
| 35 | 37417 | 32708.7583602738 | 4708.24163972624 |
| 36 | 41507 | 33166.0470986306 | 8340.95290136945 |
| 37 | 33205 | 34358.7810751651 | -1153.78107516507 |
| 38 | 26038 | 34180.5995118148 | -8142.59951181476 |
| 39 | 29116 | 32798.5806443968 | -3682.58064439682 |
| 40 | 30138 | 31947.7281410835 | -1809.72814108348 |
| 41 | 57087 | 31312.8916577609 | 25774.1083422391 |
| 42 | 57087 | 35259.5074867737 | 21827.4925132263 |
| 43 | 41507 | 39231.9169480464 | 2275.08305195358 |
| 44 | 39462 | 40505.404217111 | -1043.40421711099 |
| 45 | 45718 | 41282.6523324887 | 4435.34766751129 |
| 46 | 42640 | 42951.6142644729 | -311.614264472875 |
| 47 | 50942 | 43942.2588829978 | 6999.7411170022 |
| 48 | 61288 | 46151.7483019601 | 15136.2516980399 |
| 49 | 63343 | 49913.8041467631 | 13429.1958532369 |
| 50 | 48785 | 53793.5026019071 | -5008.50260190709 |
| 51 | 44685 | 54937.1286686418 | -10252.1286686418 |
| 52 | 40484 | 55066.9100671771 | -14582.9100671771 |
| 53 | 68567 | 54196.0491700351 | 14370.9508299649 |
| 54 | 70622 | 57795.5269623406 | 12826.4730376594 |
| 55 | 65388 | 61519.5003623021 | 3868.49963769785 |
| 56 | 70622 | 64082.4204470507 | 6539.57955294933 |
| 57 | 69589 | 67196.9595409117 | 2392.04045908834 |
| 58 | 61288 | 69789.9769438366 | -8501.97694383659 |
| 59 | 70622 | 70618.3726702024 | 3.62732979757129 |
| 60 | 80968 | 72647.3650969309 | 8320.63490306913 |
| 61 | 85169 | 76072.4122069549 | 9096.58779304514 |
| 62 | 72667 | 79849.8719627431 | -7182.87196274311 |
| 63 | 64365 | 81137.8189071708 | -16772.8189071708 |
| 64 | 70622 | 80624.359324501 | -10002.359324501 |
| 65 | 97570 | 80799.4189857656 | 16770.5810142344 |
| 66 | 105872 | 85201.0712032261 | 20670.9287967739 |
| 67 | 103827 | 90705.1728583134 | 13121.8271416866 |
| 68 | 107916 | 95494.1506065914 | 12421.8493934086 |
| 69 | 106894 | 100516.01449526 | 6377.98550474019 |
| 70 | 96548 | 104855.136092044 | -8307.13609204389 |
| 71 | 114173 | 106899.753712521 | 7273.2462874788 |
| 72 | 118374 | 111337.627947502 | 7036.37205249828 |
| 73 | 124519 | 115929.951222099 | 8589.04877790065 |
| 74 | 105872 | 120970.763591595 | -15098.7635915951 |
| 75 | 98593 | 122265.065312153 | -23672.0653121532 |
| 76 | 106894 | 121717.231538648 | -14823.2315386479 |
| 77 | 126675 | 122022.53862131 | 4652.46137868978 |
| 78 | 144300 | 125200.916081922 | 19099.0839180775 |
| 79 | 140099 | 130928.296897239 | 9170.70310276061 |
| 80 | 140099 | 135499.235959614 | 4599.76404038642 |
| 81 | 142154 | 139547.843347974 | 2606.15665202599 |
| 82 | 134976 | 143384.656974657 | -8408.65697465662 |
| 83 | 153634 | 145442.291265155 | 8191.7087348449 |
| 84 | 153634 | 150061.669243743 | 3572.33075625729 |
| 85 | 150455 | 154124.444717776 | -3669.44471777615 |
| 86 | 132820 | 157067.120107889 | -24247.1201078886 |
| 87 | 135999 | 156457.981238542 | -20458.9812385422 |
| 88 | 138054 | 155837.222310795 | -17783.2223107947 |
| 89 | 151579 | 155119.286446776 | -3540.28644677572 |
| 90 | 169204 | 156317.09901629 | 12886.9009837103 |
| 91 | 156701 | 160177.581387629 | -3476.58138762877 |
| 92 | 162958 | 161635.655488311 | 1322.34451168883 |
| 93 | 157724 | 163806.369269657 | -6082.3692696573 |
| 94 | 154656 | 164769.556683294 | -10113.5566832937 |
| 95 | 178538 | 164893.725794234 | 13644.2742057664 |
| 96 | 173304 | 168735.451011621 | 4568.54898837933 |
| 97 | 166025 | 171418.195559391 | -5393.19555939143 |
| 98 | 155679 | 172550.910749647 | -16871.9107496474 |
| 99 | 166025 | 171612.988569838 | -5587.98856983811 |
| 100 | 171259 | 172118.496264429 | -859.496264429385 |
| 101 | 177505 | 173268.443969725 | 4236.55603027451 |
| 102 | 185806 | 175250.782379473 | 10555.2176205265 |
| 103 | 177505 | 178406.791297512 | -901.791297512216 |
| 104 | 182628 | 179921.653355844 | 2706.34664415603 |
| 105 | 176381 | 182018.039635507 | -5637.03963550652 |
| 106 | 175359 | 182786.304218495 | -7427.30421849524 |
| 107 | 201285 | 183103.566402476 | 18181.4335975242 |
| 108 | 203441 | 187520.774959029 | 15920.2250409712 |
| 109 | 195140 | 192043.92610774 | 3096.07389225982 |
| 110 | 180583 | 194839.718082402 | -14256.718082402 |
| 111 | 192984 | 194805.622146881 | -1821.62214688087 |
| 112 | 198208 | 196478.003098736 | 1729.99690126369 |
| 113 | 204464 | 198697.861024868 | 5766.13897513205 |
| 114 | 213788 | 201641.353802455 | 12146.6461975448 |
| 115 | 204464 | 205809.739717324 | -1345.73971732371 |
| 116 | 211743 | 208037.847042458 | 3705.15295754175 |
| 117 | 208564 | 211077.781860923 | -2513.78186092337 |
| 118 | 197185 | 213172.84057537 | -15987.8405753702 |
| 119 | 221066 | 212939.240749047 | 8126.7592509526 |
| 120 | 221066 | 216326.226022492 | 4739.77397750752 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 219361.723966075 | 198468.891367427 | 240254.556564724 |
| 122 | 221728.239701863 | 200543.159563726 | 242913.319840001 |
| 123 | 224094.755437651 | 202523.278582645 | 245666.232292656 |
| 124 | 226461.271173438 | 204400.086400887 | 248522.455945989 |
| 125 | 228827.786909226 | 206166.545992622 | 251489.02782583 |
| 126 | 231194.302645014 | 207817.841140446 | 254570.764149581 |
| 127 | 233560.818380801 | 209351.323318236 | 257770.313443367 |
| 128 | 235927.334116589 | 210766.325077936 | 261088.343155242 |
| 129 | 238293.849852377 | 212063.875275869 | 264523.824428885 |
| 130 | 240660.365588164 | 213246.360730413 | 268074.370445916 |
| 131 | 243026.881323952 | 214317.177322583 | 271736.585325321 |
| 132 | 245393.39705974 | 215280.404338429 | 275506.38978105 |
