| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.384610233695977 |
| beta | 0.0225408714425909 |
| gamma | 0.451381968305457 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2513 | 2426.36832264957 | 86.6316773504263 |
| 14 | 2466 | 2416.65718708244 | 49.3428129175591 |
| 15 | 2544 | 2509.86548102608 | 34.1345189739218 |
| 16 | 2537 | 2512.43710364843 | 24.5628963515705 |
| 17 | 2564 | 2544.87366238816 | 19.1263376118391 |
| 18 | 2582 | 2564.13507982492 | 17.8649201750777 |
| 19 | 2716 | 2884.52455556911 | -168.524555569109 |
| 20 | 2904 | 2757.97404964201 | 146.02595035799 |
| 21 | 2851 | 2807.9188519597 | 43.0811480402999 |
| 22 | 2932 | 2852.39351965189 | 79.6064803481081 |
| 23 | 2772 | 2757.89801499326 | 14.1019850067414 |
| 24 | 2811 | 2725.08106752481 | 85.9189324751892 |
| 25 | 2935 | 2837.77804350591 | 97.2219564940851 |
| 26 | 2783 | 2825.61800598944 | -42.6180059894414 |
| 27 | 3003 | 2882.27139559397 | 120.728604406031 |
| 28 | 2995 | 2919.27861157571 | 75.721388424291 |
| 29 | 3127 | 2974.11400867223 | 152.885991327767 |
| 30 | 2985 | 3049.86289255575 | -64.8628925557491 |
| 31 | 3287 | 3291.33523241962 | -4.33523241961575 |
| 32 | 3236 | 3321.40690524362 | -85.4069052436162 |
| 33 | 3252 | 3257.83704054694 | -5.83704054694272 |
| 34 | 3228 | 3297.31139053312 | -69.3113905331243 |
| 35 | 2856 | 3129.72220949365 | -273.72220949365 |
| 36 | 3176 | 3006.03609431466 | 169.963905685338 |
| 37 | 3362 | 3154.80790760238 | 207.192092397618 |
| 38 | 3036 | 3147.66330021222 | -111.663300212224 |
| 39 | 3330 | 3224.10027498021 | 105.899725019787 |
| 40 | 3251 | 3243.73904590959 | 7.26095409040818 |
| 41 | 3318 | 3293.9216188734 | 24.0783811266015 |
| 42 | 3238 | 3258.77100340011 | -20.7710034001134 |
| 43 | 3597 | 3533.5235150593 | 63.4764849407002 |
| 44 | 3708 | 3567.25326440808 | 140.746735591918 |
| 45 | 3902 | 3614.82436673625 | 287.175633263754 |
| 46 | 3745 | 3753.96038325931 | -8.96038325931249 |
| 47 | 3426 | 3557.9232742296 | -131.923274229597 |
| 48 | 3526 | 3618.36992930194 | -92.3699293019367 |
| 49 | 3483 | 3680.66242948243 | -197.662429482433 |
| 50 | 3458 | 3429.80231154856 | 28.197688451442 |
| 51 | 3824 | 3622.24353215317 | 201.75646784683 |
| 52 | 3696 | 3653.95987006777 | 42.0401299322266 |
| 53 | 3518 | 3725.10141185893 | -207.101411858926 |
| 54 | 3814 | 3589.48547181299 | 224.514528187006 |
| 55 | 3996 | 3985.01258215953 | 10.9874178404739 |
| 56 | 4136 | 4022.59661278383 | 113.403387216171 |
| 57 | 4037 | 4102.66684690088 | -65.6668469008846 |
| 58 | 3915 | 4023.11890532629 | -108.118905326293 |
| 59 | 3760 | 3753.21094588188 | 6.78905411812229 |
| 60 | 3955 | 3877.61995806736 | 77.3800419326358 |
| 61 | 4160 | 3977.04917243164 | 182.950827568365 |
| 62 | 4115 | 3939.71185184109 | 175.288148158913 |
| 63 | 4202 | 4242.60775703655 | -40.6077570365533 |
| 64 | 4018 | 4140.3135808071 | -122.313580807097 |
| 65 | 4233 | 4081.18323279899 | 151.816767201008 |
| 66 | 4029 | 4208.76073399299 | -179.760733992985 |
| 67 | 4401 | 4391.239278368 | 9.76072163199933 |
| 68 | 4645 | 4458.54206701112 | 186.457932988885 |
| 69 | 4491 | 4519.34365995771 | -28.3436599577053 |
| 70 | 4379 | 4445.0572314968 | -66.0572314968003 |
| 71 | 4394 | 4226.30871905992 | 167.691280940082 |
| 72 | 4472 | 4436.66922069787 | 35.3307793021286 |
| 73 | 4614 | 4553.34470361681 | 60.6552963831873 |
| 74 | 4160 | 4469.87635918569 | -309.876359185691 |
| 75 | 4328 | 4525.02984942226 | -197.029849422257 |
| 76 | 4202 | 4337.34962491708 | -135.349624917082 |
| 77 | 4635 | 4346.71064777664 | 288.28935222336 |
| 78 | 4542 | 4433.21420183483 | 108.785798165169 |
| 79 | 4920 | 4780.35823763848 | 139.641762361524 |
| 80 | 4774 | 4948.86587786416 | -174.865877864165 |
| 81 | 4698 | 4810.06852019559 | -112.068520195594 |
| 82 | 4916 | 4691.41546452062 | 224.584535479377 |
| 83 | 4703 | 4650.21087455623 | 52.7891254437691 |
| 84 | 4616 | 4779.446577021 | -163.446577020997 |
| 85 | 4873 | 4824.81579901597 | 48.1842009840257 |
| 86 | 4375 | 4631.62908822172 | -256.629088221721 |
| 87 | 4801 | 4737.07257072578 | 63.9274292742202 |
| 88 | 4427 | 4667.61933106796 | -240.619331067957 |
| 89 | 4684 | 4753.98346011311 | -69.9834601131097 |
| 90 | 4648 | 4649.53808273831 | -1.53808273830964 |
| 91 | 5225 | 4958.57322894552 | 266.426771054479 |
| 92 | 5174 | 5085.33197458479 | 88.6680254152097 |
| 93 | 5181 | 5064.47165481966 | 116.528345180336 |
| 94 | 5266 | 5128.37080143688 | 137.629198563117 |
| 95 | 4839 | 5006.36525087883 | -167.365250878829 |
| 96 | 5032 | 4989.31722201804 | 42.6827779819605 |
| 97 | 5221 | 5172.99379904298 | 48.0062009570192 |
| 98 | 4658 | 4895.30929344235 | -237.309293442351 |
| 99 | 5014 | 5097.63415041071 | -83.634150410714 |
| 100 | 4980 | 4885.96013249059 | 94.0398675094075 |
| 101 | 4952 | 5150.46609708487 | -198.466097084874 |
| 102 | 4946 | 5016.53354127671 | -70.5335412767145 |
| 103 | 5365 | 5373.78442493753 | -8.78442493753209 |
| 104 | 5456 | 5343.24904638118 | 112.750953618822 |
| 105 | 5397 | 5337.53098064205 | 59.4690193579527 |
| 106 | 5436 | 5382.99195055969 | 53.0080494403064 |
| 107 | 4995 | 5140.63264723115 | -145.632647231152 |
| 108 | 5019 | 5187.39037612535 | -168.390376125351 |
| 109 | 5249 | 5286.63579570339 | -37.6357957033933 |
| 110 | 4799 | 4891.28729987078 | -92.2872998707753 |
| 111 | 5137 | 5187.86215350933 | -50.8621535093253 |
| 112 | 4979 | 5034.21605771771 | -55.2160577177146 |
| 113 | 4951 | 5154.84153454556 | -203.841534545561 |
| 114 | 5265 | 5049.10746176013 | 215.89253823987 |
| 115 | 5612 | 5530.88567385183 | 81.1143261481666 |
| 116 | 5572 | 5566.67775416987 | 5.32224583013158 |
| 117 | 5403 | 5501.90161282824 | -98.9016128282365 |
| 118 | 5373 | 5480.34446833197 | -107.344468331973 |
| 119 | 5252 | 5115.43174320595 | 136.568256794046 |
| 120 | 5437 | 5261.14919168118 | 175.85080831882 |
| 121 | 5296 | 5528.84205055288 | -232.842050552878 |
| 122 | 5011 | 5041.27032585937 | -30.270325859371 |
| 123 | 5294 | 5371.77806253457 | -77.7780625345695 |
| 124 | 5335 | 5204.91069231954 | 130.089307680456 |
| 125 | 5398 | 5355.46870639634 | 42.5312936036635 |
| 126 | 5396 | 5463.1668124369 | -67.1668124368989 |
| 127 | 5724 | 5798.26808255543 | -74.2680825554316 |
| 128 | 5898 | 5751.52692193006 | 146.473078069942 |
| 129 | 5718 | 5711.59329757731 | 6.40670242269334 |
| 130 | 5625 | 5728.61188538009 | -103.611885380094 |
| 131 | 5380 | 5433.33847025125 | -53.3384702512494 |
| 132 | 5488 | 5515.73186243202 | -27.7318624320214 |
| 133 | 5678 | 5588.63905964432 | 89.3609403556829 |
| 134 | 5224 | 5281.09207776265 | -57.092077762647 |
| 135 | 5596 | 5587.68750607249 | 8.31249392751306 |
| 136 | 5184 | 5512.01845041032 | -328.018450410321 |
| 137 | 5620 | 5458.43696041831 | 161.563039581685 |
| 138 | 5531 | 5578.85127894424 | -47.8512789442429 |
| 139 | 5816 | 5916.98326349836 | -100.983263498361 |
| 140 | 6086 | 5918.62645104781 | 167.373548952189 |
| 141 | 6175 | 5845.34821952391 | 329.651780476088 |
| 142 | 6112 | 5956.4559367929 | 155.544063207099 |
| 143 | 5813 | 5777.39430196323 | 35.6056980367675 |
| 144 | 5740 | 5904.45353563049 | -164.453535630487 |
| 145 | 5821 | 5959.46053563178 | -138.460535631781 |
| 146 | 5294 | 5523.79369040973 | -229.793690409726 |
| 147 | 5881 | 5780.82061174745 | 100.179388252546 |
| 148 | 5589 | 5646.54281781483 | -57.5428178148304 |
| 149 | 5845 | 5834.81073655388 | 10.1892634461192 |
| 150 | 5706 | 5839.35038611994 | -133.350386119943 |
| 151 | 6355 | 6129.61400053669 | 225.385999463307 |
| 152 | 6404 | 6333.92887191274 | 70.0711280872611 |
| 153 | 6426 | 6270.06423308609 | 155.935766913914 |
| 154 | 6375 | 6266.25018021057 | 108.749819789426 |
| 155 | 5869 | 6035.72344406456 | -166.723444064555 |
| 156 | 5994 | 6027.48753846972 | -33.4875384697161 |
| 157 | 6105 | 6139.31537374473 | -34.3153737447292 |
| 158 | 5792 | 5718.46630566509 | 73.5336943349057 |
| 159 | 6011 | 6186.5769015435 | -175.576901543502 |
| 160 | 5968 | 5902.80065011095 | 65.1993498890488 |
| 161 | 6255 | 6158.52655822558 | 96.4734417744176 |
| 162 | 6208 | 6158.56393436725 | 49.4360656327453 |
| 163 | 6897 | 6622.54584484645 | 274.454155153549 |
| 164 | 6814 | 6806.78395934545 | 7.2160406545463 |
| 165 | 6897 | 6746.24466192045 | 150.755338079546 |
| 166 | 6596 | 6730.93506409469 | -134.935064094692 |
| 167 | 6188 | 6331.65621285165 | -143.656212851654 |
| 168 | 6406 | 6370.99330017978 | 35.0066998202192 |
| 169 | 6548 | 6511.21995878 | 36.7800412200049 |
| 170 | 5842 | 6150.57432987924 | -308.574329879237 |
| 171 | 6555 | 6402.11424600921 | 152.885753990791 |
| 172 | 6424 | 6313.98639300911 | 110.013606990891 |
| 173 | 6596 | 6598.46049851554 | -2.46049851554471 |
| 174 | 6645 | 6549.34830729938 | 95.6516927006196 |
| 175 | 7203 | 7095.97776008979 | 107.022239910207 |
| 176 | 7128 | 7142.50396060284 | -14.5039606028431 |
| 177 | 7133 | 7114.21078430999 | 18.7892156900125 |
| 178 | 6778 | 6968.37180545445 | -190.371805454445 |
| 179 | 6593 | 6544.45231838304 | 48.5476816169557 |
| 180 | 6591 | 6708.11096053577 | -117.11096053577 |
| 181 | 6120 | 6789.77515391471 | -669.775153914708 |
| 182 | 5612 | 6054.77557184146 | -442.775571841459 |
| 183 | 6070 | 6375.04483772257 | -305.04483772257 |
| 184 | 5983 | 6087.07539623869 | -104.075396238686 |
| 185 | 6145 | 6244.30210695207 | -99.302106952071 |
| 186 | 6303 | 6170.69329169306 | 132.306708306945 |
| 187 | 6588 | 6720.39333365735 | -132.393333657347 |
| 188 | 6640 | 6624.81944195909 | 15.1805580409118 |
| 189 | 6719 | 6601.1872543113 | 117.812745688704 |
| 190 | 6575 | 6420.18831766601 | 154.811682333989 |
| 191 | 6487 | 6183.24300397246 | 303.756996027543 |
| 192 | 6510 | 6389.10132469697 | 120.898675303031 |
| 193 | 6365 | 6400.91264323002 | -35.9126432300163 |
| 194 | 5844 | 5970.37625550628 | -126.376255506284 |
| 195 | 5974 | 6450.95540078604 | -476.955400786035 |
| 196 | 5880 | 6151.56267717805 | -271.562677178049 |
| 197 | 6279 | 6243.11677099492 | 35.8832290050832 |
| 198 | 6342 | 6284.42773691935 | 57.5722630806522 |
| 199 | 6598 | 6729.79974575042 | -131.799745750417 |
| 200 | 6801 | 6673.39463930466 | 127.605360695336 |
| 201 | 6529 | 6720.4336079616 | -191.433607961603 |
| 202 | 6369 | 6427.01445821176 | -58.0144582117637 |
| 203 | 6028 | 6143.98404592628 | -115.98404592628 |
| 204 | 6187 | 6128.36972097774 | 58.6302790222571 |
| 205 | 6164 | 6062.89142690934 | 101.108573090656 |
| 206 | 5866 | 5651.33193972321 | 214.668060276795 |
| 207 | 6198 | 6160.06021237598 | 37.9397876240228 |
| 208 | 5898 | 6114.58085401025 | -216.58085401025 |
| 209 | 6462 | 6311.98549726295 | 150.014502737049 |
| 210 | 6063 | 6403.50959565428 | -340.509595654279 |
| 211 | 6496 | 6640.01351434151 | -144.013514341512 |
| 212 | 6678 | 6647.70268938301 | 30.2973106169875 |
| 213 | 6554 | 6564.58640961739 | -10.5864096173909 |
| 214 | 6513 | 6375.24314796835 | 137.756852031645 |
| 215 | 6210 | 6150.56265142266 | 59.4373485773422 |
| 216 | 5928 | 6251.59845598318 | -323.598455983184 |
| 217 | 6268 | 6048.27443445069 | 219.72556554931 |
| 218 | 5582 | 5712.27259456159 | -130.272594561593 |
| 219 | 5869 | 6034.64412626134 | -165.644126261336 |
| 220 | 5764 | 5833.80147463697 | -69.8014746369736 |
| 221 | 6082 | 6184.39964986149 | -102.399649861493 |
| 222 | 6062 | 6035.30799071906 | 26.6920092809369 |
| 223 | 6810 | 6463.52775932699 | 346.472240673005 |
| 224 | 6727 | 6708.4388434013 | 18.561156598701 |
| 225 | 6537 | 6609.50719445678 | -72.5071944567826 |
| 226 | 6175 | 6437.07290650122 | -262.072906501221 |
| 227 | 6014 | 6032.91038939781 | -18.9103893978054 |
| 228 | 6109 | 5992.78738895536 | 116.212611044644 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 229 | 6108.72704401622 | 5808.30767585392 | 6409.14641217853 |
| 230 | 5588.27611960593 | 5265.45892094495 | 5911.09331826691 |
| 231 | 5949.33650990952 | 5604.67391498223 | 6293.99910483682 |
| 232 | 5838.67114392126 | 5472.59813880649 | 6204.74414903603 |
| 233 | 6207.5119214446 | 5820.37379043553 | 6594.65005245366 |
| 234 | 6135.00173522534 | 5727.07363727307 | 6542.92983317761 |
| 235 | 6642.89027762584 | 6214.39148712381 | 7071.38906812786 |
| 236 | 6661.56266045828 | 6212.6671936689 | 7110.45812724766 |
| 237 | 6528.13854399029 | 6058.98326099682 | 6997.29382698375 |
| 238 | 6329.50601819847 | 5840.19691510902 | 6818.81512128791 |
| 239 | 6094.52765305408 | 5585.14482741578 | 6603.91047869238 |
| 240 | 6100.21918678892 | 5570.82081111847 | 6629.61756245936 |
