| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.548594506058367 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 520 | 540 | -20 |
| 3 | 550 | 529.028109878833 | 20.9718901211673 |
| 4 | 440 | 540.533173580965 | -100.533173580965 |
| 5 | 570 | 485.381226877835 | 84.6187731221647 |
| 6 | 560 | 531.802620922054 | 28.1973790779457 |
| 7 | 600 | 547.27154816946 | 52.7284518305396 |
| 8 | 620 | 576.198087156658 | 43.8019128433423 |
| 9 | 690 | 600.227575897363 | 89.7724241026373 |
| 10 | 600 | 649.476234555611 | -49.4762345556112 |
| 11 | 570 | 622.333844097948 | -52.3338440979478 |
| 12 | 710 | 593.623784744899 | 116.376215255101 |
| 13 | 600 | 657.467137069713 | -57.4671370697131 |
| 14 | 450 | 625.940981394365 | -175.940981394365 |
| 15 | 530 | 529.420725610899 | 0.579274389100988 |
| 16 | 400 | 529.73851235826 | -129.73851235826 |
| 17 | 560 | 458.564677254333 | 101.435322745667 |
| 18 | 460 | 514.211538032863 | -54.2115380328632 |
| 19 | 610 | 484.47138610306 | 125.52861389694 |
| 20 | 550 | 553.335694040043 | -3.33569404004334 |
| 21 | 580 | 551.505750615784 | 28.4942493842161 |
| 22 | 650 | 567.137539282222 | 82.8624607177782 |
| 23 | 640 | 612.595429990472 | 27.4045700095278 |
| 24 | 760 | 627.629426538591 | 132.370573461409 |
| 25 | 550 | 700.247195903316 | -150.247195903316 |
| 26 | 460 | 617.822409680081 | -157.822409680081 |
| 27 | 510 | 531.241902796696 | -21.2419027966959 |
| 28 | 370 | 519.588711624203 | -149.588711624203 |
| 29 | 530 | 437.525166258816 | 92.4748337411843 |
| 30 | 410 | 488.25635199789 | -78.2563519978903 |
| 31 | 580 | 445.325347227678 | 134.674652772322 |
| 32 | 550 | 519.207121843892 | 30.7928781561079 |
| 33 | 490 | 536.099925626058 | -46.0999256260576 |
| 34 | 700 | 510.809759697903 | 189.190240302097 |
| 35 | 630 | 614.598486127496 | 15.4015138725042 |
| 36 | 720 | 623.047672022933 | 96.9523279770667 |
| 37 | 540 | 676.235186500721 | -136.235186500721 |
| 38 | 500 | 601.497311654588 | -101.497311654588 |
| 39 | 450 | 545.816444101187 | -95.8164441011872 |
| 40 | 370 | 493.252069277227 | -123.252069277227 |
| 41 | 490 | 425.636661211415 | 64.3633387885849 |
| 42 | 440 | 460.946035262406 | -20.9460352624062 |
| 43 | 600 | 449.455155393745 | 150.544844606255 |
| 44 | 580 | 532.043230060147 | 47.9567699398527 |
| 45 | 500 | 558.352050577456 | -58.3520505774555 |
| 46 | 670 | 526.340436213423 | 143.659563786577 |
| 47 | 620 | 605.151283649481 | 14.8487163505191 |
| 48 | 800 | 613.297207861395 | 186.702792138605 |
| 49 | 640 | 715.721333894391 | -75.7213338943909 |
| 50 | 390 | 674.181026128517 | -284.181026128517 |
| 51 | 390 | 518.280876468383 | -128.280876468383 |
| 52 | 390 | 447.906692405476 | -57.9066924054761 |
| 53 | 460 | 416.13939908782 | 43.8606009121799 |
| 54 | 460 | 440.201083780661 | 19.7989162193394 |
| 55 | 620 | 451.0626604445 | 168.9373395555 |
| 56 | 570 | 543.740756792764 | 26.2592432072357 |
| 57 | 510 | 558.146433349504 | -48.1464333495043 |
| 58 | 640 | 531.733564527661 | 108.266435472339 |
| 59 | 590 | 591.127936218309 | -1.12793621830883 |
| 60 | 850 | 590.50915660576 | 259.49084339424 |
| 61 | 670 | 732.864407664292 | -62.8644076642925 |
| 62 | 390 | 698.377338993048 | -308.377338993048 |
| 63 | 410 | 529.203225028563 | -119.203225028563 |
| 64 | 340 | 463.808990673454 | -123.808990673454 |
| 65 | 470 | 395.888058589366 | 74.1119414106345 |
| 66 | 540 | 436.545462480559 | 103.454537519441 |
| 67 | 680 | 493.300053390534 | 186.699946609466 |
| 68 | 670 | 595.722618381877 | 74.2773816181226 |
| 69 | 540 | 636.47078186198 | -96.4707818619802 |
| 70 | 630 | 583.547440937343 | 46.4525590626574 |
| 71 | 560 | 609.031059631468 | -49.0310596314682 |
| 72 | 800 | 582.132889691425 | 217.867110308575 |
| 73 | 610 | 701.653589457521 | -91.6535894575213 |
| 74 | 490 | 651.372933820596 | -161.372933820596 |
| 75 | 440 | 562.844628900096 | -122.844628900096 |
| 76 | 330 | 495.452740386725 | -165.452740386725 |
| 77 | 490 | 404.686275998266 | 85.3137240017339 |
| 78 | 590 | 451.488916276997 | 138.511083723003 |
| 79 | 690 | 527.475335835627 | 162.524664164373 |
| 80 | 650 | 616.635473695183 | 33.3645263048168 |
| 81 | 480 | 634.939069523246 | -154.939069523246 |
| 82 | 690 | 549.940347208998 | 140.059652791002 |
| 83 | 540 | 626.776303250584 | -86.776303250584 |
| 84 | 830 | 579.171300031259 | 250.828699968741 |
| 85 | 690 | 716.774546795873 | -26.7745467958728 |
| 86 | 500 | 702.086177521454 | -202.086177521454 |
| 87 | 460 | 591.222810782849 | -131.222810782849 |
| 88 | 310 | 519.234697717841 | -209.234697717841 |
| 89 | 490 | 404.44969207305 | 85.5503079269497 |
| 90 | 470 | 451.382120993376 | 18.6178790066235 |
| 91 | 710 | 461.59578713087 | 248.40421286913 |
| 92 | 710 | 597.868973592628 | 112.131026407372 |
| 93 | 540 | 659.383438638398 | -119.383438638398 |
| 94 | 700 | 593.890340087017 | 106.109659912983 |
| 95 | 520 | 652.101516555001 | -132.101516555001 |
| 96 | 810 | 579.631350330949 | 230.368649669051 |
| 97 | 690 | 706.010325907475 | -16.0103259074751 |
| 98 | 510 | 697.22714907443 | -187.22714907443 |
| 99 | 390 | 594.515363707227 | -204.515363707227 |
| 100 | 270 | 482.319358772913 | -212.319358772913 |
| 101 | 530 | 365.842125020258 | 164.157874979742 |
| 102 | 510 | 455.898233360361 | 54.1017666396394 |
| 103 | 670 | 485.578165306919 | 184.421834693081 |
| 104 | 770 | 586.750970616748 | 183.249029383252 |
| 105 | 570 | 687.280381376928 | -117.280381376928 |
| 106 | 640 | 622.941008485115 | 17.0589915148847 |
| 107 | 480 | 632.299477509077 | -152.299477509077 |
| 108 | 830 | 548.748820872038 | 281.251179127962 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 703.041672564075 | 449.317843696247 | 956.765501431904 |
| 110 | 703.041672564075 | 413.645655642032 | 992.437689486119 |
| 111 | 703.041672564075 | 381.911904580264 | 1024.17144054789 |
| 112 | 703.041672564075 | 353.043670912166 | 1053.03967421598 |
| 113 | 703.041672564075 | 326.381514815313 | 1079.70183031284 |
| 114 | 703.041672564075 | 301.485763990542 | 1104.59758113761 |
| 115 | 703.041672564075 | 278.045883190453 | 1128.0374619377 |
| 116 | 703.041672564075 | 255.832891053357 | 1150.25045407479 |
| 117 | 703.041672564075 | 234.672194976888 | 1171.41115015126 |
| 118 | 703.041672564075 | 214.427058772912 | 1191.65628635524 |
| 119 | 703.041672564075 | 194.988019801613 | 1211.09532532654 |
| 120 | 703.041672564075 | 176.26583090059 | 1229.81751422756 |
