| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.791744303433318 |
| beta | 0.0130842068064546 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 21051 | 21137.6057692308 | -86.6057692307731 |
| 14 | 21643 | 21681.5136742758 | -38.5136742758368 |
| 15 | 21864 | 21876.6825783896 | -12.6825783895729 |
| 16 | 21643 | 21647.4633889691 | -4.46338896906309 |
| 17 | 22455 | 22479.0387914928 | -24.0387914928397 |
| 18 | 21935 | 21978.0331210843 | -43.0331210842669 |
| 19 | 20759 | 21255.7930034246 | -496.793003424602 |
| 20 | 20467 | 20102.9362997479 | 364.063700252111 |
| 21 | 20467 | 20413.3461158575 | 53.6538841425281 |
| 22 | 20610 | 20391.3382141602 | 218.661785839802 |
| 23 | 20026 | 20603.8229051276 | -577.822905127639 |
| 24 | 20467 | 20305.0428450643 | 161.957154935688 |
| 25 | 20097 | 20368.2877254567 | -271.287725456681 |
| 26 | 20467 | 20769.0463405366 | -302.046340536563 |
| 27 | 21051 | 20751.2703482002 | 299.729651799778 |
| 28 | 21272 | 20764.6759597875 | 507.324040212545 |
| 29 | 21792 | 21996.2437424226 | -204.243742422565 |
| 30 | 21571 | 21345.6036334268 | 225.396366573154 |
| 31 | 20246 | 20741.1711892185 | -495.171189218487 |
| 32 | 19726 | 19768.6718971996 | -42.6718971996415 |
| 33 | 19506 | 19687.9880307114 | -181.988030711404 |
| 34 | 19726 | 19506.9162467724 | 219.083753227573 |
| 35 | 19363 | 19547.0073511866 | -184.007351186552 |
| 36 | 19506 | 19711.3163932312 | -205.316393231231 |
| 37 | 19064 | 19386.9685748307 | -322.968574830706 |
| 38 | 19805 | 19733.2878903225 | 71.7121096774936 |
| 39 | 20168 | 20133.512568756 | 34.4874312439715 |
| 40 | 20246 | 19974.1554096515 | 271.844590348501 |
| 41 | 21643 | 20862.6647544101 | 780.33524558994 |
| 42 | 21643 | 21082.8031645832 | 560.196835416762 |
| 43 | 19805 | 20598.6218140378 | -793.621814037833 |
| 44 | 19363 | 19486.2067697941 | -123.206769794142 |
| 45 | 19363 | 19314.057484224 | 48.9425157760124 |
| 46 | 19584 | 19403.0524041227 | 180.947595877271 |
| 47 | 18622 | 19332.3116142435 | -710.311614243543 |
| 48 | 18180 | 19073.3405664496 | -893.340566449595 |
| 49 | 17668 | 18170.480352344 | -502.480352343966 |
| 50 | 17817 | 18445.7356779097 | -628.735677909721 |
| 51 | 18480 | 18265.2453146481 | 214.754685351858 |
| 52 | 17960 | 18281.5249137942 | -321.52491379423 |
| 53 | 19363 | 18783.4666955121 | 579.533304487868 |
| 54 | 19584 | 18774.0293440118 | 809.970655988163 |
| 55 | 18180 | 18183.5051499276 | -3.50514992760873 |
| 56 | 17668 | 17822.3039203778 | -154.303920377832 |
| 57 | 17375 | 17647.0882610202 | -272.088261020206 |
| 58 | 17668 | 17491.7775817719 | 176.222418228055 |
| 59 | 16855 | 17214.0147817313 | -359.014781731308 |
| 60 | 16563 | 17181.0323134181 | -618.032313418098 |
| 61 | 15388 | 16566.3648554516 | -1178.36485545161 |
| 62 | 15680 | 16262.017512535 | -582.017512535012 |
| 63 | 15751 | 16276.4800607761 | -525.480060776099 |
| 64 | 15830 | 15569.633784042 | 260.366215957976 |
| 65 | 17226 | 16700.5971205659 | 525.402879434077 |
| 66 | 17076 | 16676.3935094361 | 399.606490563921 |
| 67 | 15388 | 15567.4050548811 | -179.405054881123 |
| 68 | 14647 | 15009.559367054 | -362.559367053986 |
| 69 | 14355 | 14616.799986381 | -261.799986381009 |
| 70 | 14725 | 14534.975424709 | 190.02457529097 |
| 71 | 13322 | 14128.7943712689 | -806.794371268896 |
| 72 | 12367 | 13654.8245467469 | -1287.82454674688 |
| 73 | 10601 | 12353.7033095642 | -1752.70330956421 |
| 74 | 10750 | 11673.4125776276 | -923.41257762758 |
| 75 | 10750 | 11380.4082235595 | -630.408223559456 |
| 76 | 10601 | 10704.1120975626 | -103.112097562622 |
| 77 | 11854 | 11548.6930093507 | 305.306990649326 |
| 78 | 11926 | 11267.9559324144 | 658.044067585593 |
| 79 | 10451 | 10189.6027638129 | 261.39723618714 |
| 80 | 10159 | 9893.7845328295 | 265.215467170505 |
| 81 | 9568 | 9976.71703565696 | -408.717035656964 |
| 82 | 10380 | 9828.81583104047 | 551.184168959529 |
| 83 | 8905 | 9460.87803679673 | -555.87803679673 |
| 84 | 8022 | 9047.88227799039 | -1025.88227799039 |
| 85 | 6333 | 7822.54200152473 | -1489.54200152473 |
| 86 | 6697 | 7491.24174641587 | -794.241746415873 |
| 87 | 6255 | 7330.79510461057 | -1075.79510461057 |
| 88 | 6404 | 6376.33257446613 | 27.6674255338676 |
| 89 | 7509 | 7375.52152046658 | 133.478479533424 |
| 90 | 7730 | 6996.42816340307 | 733.571836596927 |
| 91 | 6996 | 5860.28059086458 | 1135.71940913542 |
| 92 | 6917 | 6231.56541147607 | 685.434588523935 |
| 93 | 6917 | 6485.27520581774 | 431.724794182258 |
| 94 | 7879 | 7189.82183302986 | 689.178166970141 |
| 95 | 6184 | 6689.14542409978 | -505.145424099777 |
| 96 | 5079 | 6207.51885273741 | -1128.51885273741 |
| 97 | 3163 | 4792.37661736828 | -1629.37661736828 |
| 98 | 4709 | 4481.73448866733 | 227.265511332673 |
| 99 | 4488 | 5068.5786036757 | -580.5786036757 |
| 100 | 4566 | 4738.28668944919 | -172.286689449188 |
| 101 | 6333 | 5601.41087930296 | 731.589120697037 |
| 102 | 6112 | 5827.24913106807 | 284.750868931935 |
| 103 | 5300 | 4421.25820095752 | 878.741799042482 |
| 104 | 5671 | 4494.40452766508 | 1176.59547233492 |
| 105 | 5671 | 5088.33619349111 | 582.663806508887 |
| 106 | 6996 | 5971.7522344506 | 1024.2477655494 |
| 107 | 5450 | 5496.85986112768 | -46.8598611276757 |
| 108 | 4566 | 5262.22402586184 | -696.224025861836 |
| 109 | 3163 | 4103.48738606461 | -940.487386064614 |
| 110 | 5008 | 4750.50723541932 | 257.492764580677 |
| 111 | 4859 | 5218.94015537483 | -359.940155374828 |
| 112 | 4930 | 5176.54695104849 | -246.546951048488 |
| 113 | 6476 | 6196.52435884203 | 279.475641157973 |
| 114 | 6333 | 5994.07519782536 | 338.924802174639 |
| 115 | 5813 | 4777.96684271114 | 1035.03315728886 |
| 116 | 5892 | 5061.79343953372 | 830.206560466281 |
| 117 | 6255 | 5279.10339551756 | 975.896604482444 |
| 118 | 7067 | 6591.21466455324 | 475.785335446762 |
| 119 | 5813 | 5478.72733483937 | 334.272665160626 |
| 120 | 4787 | 5434.27681663424 | -647.276816634238 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 4287.59127274423 | 3092.4007942745 | 5482.78175121396 |
| 122 | 5962.63233570193 | 4430.46980657455 | 7494.79486482931 |
| 123 | 6129.85493909329 | 4315.89344410076 | 7943.81643408583 |
| 124 | 6431.02786359346 | 4367.63508796435 | 8494.42063922258 |
| 125 | 7793.27946245838 | 5502.15988089927 | 10084.3990440175 |
| 126 | 7416.56734182213 | 4913.43321147591 | 9919.70147216836 |
| 127 | 6108.20435708903 | 3405.0116231625 | 8811.39709101556 |
| 128 | 5550.28939677292 | 2656.46027578396 | 8444.11851776187 |
| 129 | 5152.42477685939 | 2075.57977809381 | 8229.26977562496 |
| 130 | 5589.41075450257 | 2335.83701946576 | 8842.98448953938 |
| 131 | 4067.50975769978 | 642.476285178002 | 7492.54323022156 |
| 132 | 3547.28212538108 | -44.7393750948686 | 7139.30362585704 |
