| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.441686427472862 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1922 | 1921 | 1 |
| 4 | 1901 | 1910.44168642747 | -9.44168642747286 |
| 5 | 2108 | 1895.27142168 | 212.728578319997 |
| 6 | 2098 | 1978.23074745954 | 119.769252540456 |
| 7 | 1943 | 2020.13120073523 | -77.1312007352328 |
| 8 | 1839 | 1975.0633962358 | -136.063396235796 |
| 9 | 1850 | 1903.96604084258 | -53.9660408425825 |
| 10 | 1850 | 1869.12997305797 | -19.1299730579676 |
| 11 | 1860 | 1849.68052360034 | 10.319476399658 |
| 12 | 1881 | 1843.2384962647 | 37.7615037353025 |
| 13 | 1839 | 1848.91723994555 | -9.9172399455465 |
| 14 | 1819 | 1833.53692966361 | -14.5369296636072 |
| 15 | 1757 | 1816.11616513406 | -59.1161651340644 |
| 16 | 1664 | 1779.0053573501 | -115.005357350104 |
| 17 | 1922 | 1717.2090519219 | 204.790948078103 |
| 18 | 1839 | 1796.66243415729 | 42.3375658427053 |
| 19 | 1633 | 1804.36236236226 | -171.362362362256 |
| 20 | 1674 | 1717.67393272716 | -43.6739327271616 |
| 21 | 1633 | 1687.38374940721 | -54.3837494072118 |
| 22 | 1736 | 1652.36318541896 | 83.6368145810388 |
| 23 | 1591 | 1678.30443125647 | -87.3044312564705 |
| 24 | 1684 | 1628.74324891225 | 55.2567510877498 |
| 25 | 1602 | 1642.14940589396 | -40.1494058939556 |
| 26 | 1581 | 1613.4159582395 | -32.4159582394966 |
| 27 | 1416 | 1588.09826945158 | -172.098269451584 |
| 28 | 1354 | 1501.08479964325 | -147.084799643252 |
| 29 | 1664 | 1425.11943995326 | 238.880560046738 |
| 30 | 1602 | 1519.62974111302 | 82.3702588869776 |
| 31 | 1405 | 1545.01156649083 | -140.011566490826 |
| 32 | 1529 | 1472.17035788261 | 56.8296421173859 |
| 33 | 1426 | 1486.271239484 | -60.2712394840037 |
| 34 | 1509 | 1448.65025103695 | 60.3497489630472 |
| 35 | 1426 | 1464.30591605533 | -38.3059160553253 |
| 36 | 1571 | 1436.38671284177 | 134.613287158227 |
| 37 | 1447 | 1484.84357473707 | -37.843574737069 |
| 38 | 1426 | 1457.12858140865 | -31.1285814086509 |
| 39 | 1230 | 1432.37950949397 | -202.379509493966 |
| 40 | 1168 | 1331.99122695187 | -163.991226951866 |
| 41 | 1612 | 1248.55852778261 | 363.441472217395 |
| 42 | 1509 | 1398.08569324178 | 110.914306758216 |
| 43 | 1333 | 1436.07503714945 | -103.075037149449 |
| 44 | 1498 | 1379.54819222928 | 118.451807770723 |
| 45 | 1374 | 1420.86674803123 | -46.8667480312297 |
| 46 | 1333 | 1389.16634152605 | -56.1663415260452 |
| 47 | 1312 | 1353.35843079319 | -41.3584307931858 |
| 48 | 1416 | 1324.09097325026 | 91.90902674974 |
| 49 | 1240 | 1353.68594292786 | -113.68594292786 |
| 50 | 1240 | 1292.47240494217 | -52.4724049421702 |
| 51 | 1095 | 1258.29605586235 | -163.296055862354 |
| 52 | 1044 | 1175.1704043281 | -131.170404328102 |
| 53 | 1560 | 1106.23421705025 | 453.765782949748 |
| 54 | 1426 | 1295.65640463075 | 130.343595369248 |
| 55 | 1302 | 1342.22740161336 | -40.2274016133638 |
| 56 | 1405 | 1313.45950430824 | 91.5404956917587 |
| 57 | 1261 | 1342.89169881943 | -81.8916988194292 |
| 58 | 1199 | 1295.72124692819 | -96.7212469281919 |
| 59 | 1250 | 1242.00078491176 | 7.99921508824173 |
| 60 | 1405 | 1234.53392964667 | 170.466070353329 |
| 61 | 1199 | 1298.82647926637 | -99.8264792663704 |
| 62 | 1281 | 1243.73447827201 | 37.2655217279864 |
| 63 | 1178 | 1249.19415343196 | -71.1941534319603 |
| 64 | 1137 | 1206.74866214564 | -69.7486621456433 |
| 65 | 1591 | 1164.94162474152 | 426.058375258478 |
| 66 | 1498 | 1342.12582640433 | 155.874173595669 |
| 67 | 1250 | 1399.97333327509 | -149.973333275087 |
| 68 | 1374 | 1322.73214748462 | 51.2678525153829 |
| 69 | 1312 | 1334.37646210634 | -22.3764621063424 |
| 70 | 1354 | 1313.49308249911 | 40.5069175008898 |
| 71 | 1426 | 1320.38443817802 | 105.615561821984 |
| 72 | 1622 | 1356.03339836471 | 265.966601635292 |
| 73 | 1488 | 1462.5072364681 | 25.4927635319023 |
| 74 | 1540 | 1462.76704411891 | 77.2329558810857 |
| 75 | 1457 | 1485.8797924852 | -28.8797924852004 |
| 76 | 1395 | 1462.12398011625 | -67.1239801162546 |
| 77 | 1860 | 1421.47622914095 | 438.523770859053 |
| 78 | 1746 | 1604.16622685361 | 141.83377314639 |
| 79 | 1467 | 1655.81227940964 | -188.812279409635 |
| 80 | 1426 | 1561.41645825419 | -135.416458254186 |
| 81 | 1343 | 1490.60484658687 | -147.604846586867 |
| 82 | 1374 | 1414.40978922023 | -40.4097892202337 |
| 83 | 1354 | 1385.56133378462 | -31.5613337846175 |
| 84 | 1529 | 1360.62112101901 | 168.378878980989 |
| 85 | 1343 | 1423.99178653801 | -80.9917865380098 |
| 86 | 1405 | 1377.21881368739 | 27.7811863126083 |
| 87 | 1364 | 1378.48938662077 | -14.4893866207658 |
| 88 | 1323 | 1361.08962120797 | -38.0896212079667 |
| 89 | 1829 | 1333.26595249283 | 495.734047507175 |
| 90 | 1726 | 1541.22495291293 | 184.775047087069 |
| 91 | 1447 | 1611.83758334695 | -164.837583346949 |
| 92 | 1343 | 1528.03106004517 | -185.031060045175 |
| 93 | 1188 | 1435.30535216231 | -247.305352162305 |
| 94 | 1199 | 1315.07393467082 | -116.073934670819 |
| 95 | 1178 | 1252.80565314335 | -74.8056531433465 |
| 96 | 1323 | 1208.76501145169 | 114.234988548312 |
| 97 | 1064 | 1248.221055436 | -184.221055435995 |
| 98 | 1054 | 1155.85311559519 | -101.853115595191 |
| 99 | 1013 | 1099.86597684097 | -86.8659768409705 |
| 100 | 899 | 1050.49845386114 | -151.498453861142 |
| 101 | 1467 | 972.583643007552 | 494.416356992448 |
| 102 | 1405 | 1179.96063741169 | 225.039362588307 |
| 103 | 1095 | 1268.35746951409 | -173.357469514093 |
| 104 | 1002 | 1180.78782812868 | -178.787828128678 |
| 105 | 847 | 1090.81967104689 | -243.81967104689 |
| 106 | 816 | 972.127831594581 | -156.127831594581 |
| 107 | 713 | 892.168287428486 | -179.168287428486 |
| 108 | 858 | 802.032086637767 | 55.9679133622328 |
| 109 | 486 | 815.752354343842 | -329.752354343842 |
| 110 | 444 | 659.105215002945 | -215.105215002945 |
| 111 | 403 | 553.096161057513 | -150.096161057513 |
| 112 | 331 | 475.800723902629 | -144.800723902629 |
| 113 | 940 | 400.844209466592 | 539.155790533408 |
| 114 | 889 | 627.9820044386 | 261.0179955614 |
| 115 | 568 | 732.270110404242 | -164.270110404242 |
| 116 | 506 | 648.71423219922 | -142.71423219922 |
| 117 | 351 | 574.679292829614 | -223.679292829614 |
| 118 | 362 | 464.883185080046 | -102.883185080046 |
| 119 | 300 | 408.441078615011 | -108.441078615011 |
| 120 | 403 | 349.544126010243 | 53.4558739897569 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 362.154860020218 | 32.9705651341515 | 691.339154906285 |
| 122 | 351.154860020218 | -8.70951055096998 | 711.019230591407 |
| 123 | 340.154860020218 | -47.9719625694579 | 728.281682609894 |
| 124 | 329.154860020218 | -85.3116592796143 | 743.621379320051 |
| 125 | 318.154860020218 | -121.074648127264 | 757.3843681677 |
| 126 | 307.154860020218 | -155.514164266517 | 769.823884306953 |
| 127 | 296.154860020218 | -188.822140714249 | 781.131860754686 |
| 128 | 285.154860020218 | -221.148168262608 | 791.457888303045 |
| 129 | 274.154860020218 | -252.61152240687 | 800.921242447306 |
| 130 | 263.154860020218 | -283.309124943367 | 809.618844983803 |
| 131 | 252.154860020218 | -313.321003363217 | 817.630723403654 |
| 132 | 241.154860020218 | -342.714146929288 | 825.023866969724 |
