| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.492892085236104 |
| beta | 0.0918709933866504 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3441 | 3377.57799145299 | 63.4220085470079 |
| 14 | 3472 | 3444.66056987866 | 27.3394301213402 |
| 15 | 3524 | 3520.07132833154 | 3.92867166846418 |
| 16 | 3565 | 3570.07934258482 | -5.07934258482237 |
| 17 | 3751 | 3759.54237265201 | -8.542372652008 |
| 18 | 3730 | 3739.4950160757 | -9.49501607570073 |
| 19 | 3575 | 3537.46481783467 | 37.5351821653298 |
| 20 | 3348 | 3464.14845174932 | -116.148451749318 |
| 21 | 3389 | 3418.48981496124 | -29.4898149612386 |
| 22 | 3431 | 3399.04249557822 | 31.9575044217822 |
| 23 | 3420 | 3419.62085547542 | 0.379144524578351 |
| 24 | 3472 | 3436.94332698766 | 35.0566730123392 |
| 25 | 3431 | 3546.56566695228 | -115.565666952279 |
| 26 | 3503 | 3500.42145010769 | 2.57854989231282 |
| 27 | 3534 | 3543.927326013 | -9.92732601299576 |
| 28 | 3544 | 3574.08169958063 | -30.0816995806304 |
| 29 | 3772 | 3739.87687317673 | 32.1231268232682 |
| 30 | 3730 | 3731.64329866485 | -1.64329866485423 |
| 31 | 3575 | 3549.94125308291 | 25.058746917091 |
| 32 | 3348 | 3384.58491721651 | -36.5849172165122 |
| 33 | 3389 | 3417.73438560257 | -28.7343856025695 |
| 34 | 3358 | 3425.50062922215 | -67.5006292221515 |
| 35 | 3410 | 3372.22031035048 | 37.779689649517 |
| 36 | 3524 | 3418.43313769705 | 105.566862302947 |
| 37 | 3513 | 3482.4911617777 | 30.5088382222966 |
| 38 | 3493 | 3570.93594711936 | -77.9359471193575 |
| 39 | 3544 | 3567.44730678994 | -23.4473067899366 |
| 40 | 3575 | 3579.13739889501 | -4.13739889500948 |
| 41 | 3751 | 3788.85974758985 | -37.8597475898464 |
| 42 | 3761 | 3725.43482289116 | 35.5651771088378 |
| 43 | 3575 | 3573.72412777337 | 1.27587222662532 |
| 44 | 3307 | 3362.41923214891 | -55.4192321489104 |
| 45 | 3286 | 3386.44743881582 | -100.447438815815 |
| 46 | 3348 | 3332.14182816614 | 15.8581718338551 |
| 47 | 3296 | 3370.04519027164 | -74.0451902716413 |
| 48 | 3462 | 3387.1604273739 | 74.8395726260965 |
| 49 | 3462 | 3388.26388367419 | 73.736116325812 |
| 50 | 3400 | 3435.23247007175 | -35.2324700717468 |
| 51 | 3482 | 3474.56800272127 | 7.43199727872798 |
| 52 | 3534 | 3506.81310451945 | 27.1868954805532 |
| 53 | 3710 | 3711.83515995916 | -1.83515995915832 |
| 54 | 3761 | 3701.99319259945 | 59.0068074005453 |
| 55 | 3544 | 3544.10217167008 | -0.102171670084772 |
| 56 | 3286 | 3302.95896975598 | -16.9589697559759 |
| 57 | 3286 | 3324.44280843565 | -38.4428084356528 |
| 58 | 3203 | 3363.81904188817 | -160.819041888165 |
| 59 | 3141 | 3265.18927069976 | -124.189270699756 |
| 60 | 3276 | 3326.95925397452 | -50.9592539745231 |
| 61 | 3224 | 3253.67113422983 | -29.6711342298349 |
| 62 | 3100 | 3177.90297666739 | -77.902976667388 |
| 63 | 3183 | 3199.40052083693 | -16.4005208369281 |
| 64 | 3255 | 3210.39591008349 | 44.6040899165132 |
| 65 | 3472 | 3390.55342441139 | 81.4465755886072 |
| 66 | 3555 | 3437.65298814832 | 117.347011851681 |
| 67 | 3327 | 3266.22373018844 | 60.776269811558 |
| 68 | 3162 | 3036.97651072385 | 125.023489276145 |
| 69 | 3162 | 3114.4147699203 | 47.5852300796973 |
| 70 | 3100 | 3134.89816436104 | -34.8981643610364 |
| 71 | 3059 | 3123.3736325269 | -64.3736325269024 |
| 72 | 3141 | 3260.93498084803 | -119.934980848028 |
| 73 | 3038 | 3170.4944422527 | -132.494442252697 |
| 74 | 3017 | 3020.98044297508 | -3.98044297507931 |
| 75 | 3069 | 3114.84329914229 | -45.8432991422924 |
| 76 | 3141 | 3145.67035285425 | -4.67035285424618 |
| 77 | 3358 | 3321.40058708879 | 36.5994129112091 |
| 78 | 3400 | 3363.74653034429 | 36.2534696557082 |
| 79 | 3131 | 3119.13311476584 | 11.8668852341561 |
| 80 | 2935 | 2891.61806026946 | 43.381939730541 |
| 81 | 2842 | 2879.10829946877 | -37.1082994687722 |
| 82 | 2749 | 2801.74581558725 | -52.7458155872469 |
| 83 | 2697 | 2751.39576273784 | -54.3957627378436 |
| 84 | 2800 | 2851.07003557346 | -51.0700355734566 |
| 85 | 2738 | 2776.6923680133 | -38.6923680133045 |
| 86 | 2749 | 2731.31961280816 | 17.6803871918382 |
| 87 | 2800 | 2808.3472691648 | -8.34726916480076 |
| 88 | 2842 | 2873.95019378866 | -31.9501937886557 |
| 89 | 3048 | 3051.34258377001 | -3.34258377000924 |
| 90 | 3079 | 3066.19727811397 | 12.8027218860284 |
| 91 | 2749 | 2788.96791213092 | -39.9679121309214 |
| 92 | 2594 | 2540.84758892073 | 53.1524110792657 |
| 93 | 2439 | 2481.74096906279 | -42.7409690627856 |
| 94 | 2335 | 2382.8218077546 | -47.8218077545966 |
| 95 | 2263 | 2323.43455847374 | -60.4345584737384 |
| 96 | 2366 | 2410.91790791301 | -44.9179079130122 |
| 97 | 2315 | 2335.22702086056 | -20.227020860556 |
| 98 | 2397 | 2317.7565485649 | 79.2434514351003 |
| 99 | 2428 | 2404.93083915802 | 23.0691608419779 |
| 100 | 2459 | 2468.4735752959 | -9.47357529590363 |
| 101 | 2594 | 2666.89358695484 | -72.8935869548404 |
| 102 | 2676 | 2647.94704115649 | 28.0529588435134 |
| 103 | 2263 | 2344.45704528786 | -81.457045287857 |
| 104 | 2160 | 2114.21343377306 | 45.786566226941 |
| 105 | 1901 | 1993.61873560657 | -92.618735606573 |
| 106 | 1736 | 1856.05087554874 | -120.050875548745 |
| 107 | 1684 | 1739.90794411956 | -55.9079441195645 |
| 108 | 1829 | 1822.93749801378 | 6.06250198621592 |
| 109 | 1746 | 1772.65037117868 | -26.6503711786804 |
| 110 | 1850 | 1789.92025429838 | 60.0797457016206 |
| 111 | 1850 | 1825.75880858002 | 24.2411914199774 |
| 112 | 1860 | 1860.02595264189 | -0.0259526418851692 |
| 113 | 1984 | 2018.01904709251 | -34.0190470925124 |
| 114 | 2067 | 2058.26179666756 | 8.73820333243702 |
| 115 | 1664 | 1677.68125071763 | -13.6812507176294 |
| 116 | 1519 | 1536.40202073369 | -17.4020207336871 |
| 117 | 1281 | 1302.6463942133 | -21.6463942132959 |
| 118 | 1126 | 1177.53363827686 | -51.5336382768642 |
| 119 | 1044 | 1122.17678387017 | -78.176783870168 |
| 120 | 1250 | 1219.13460305747 | 30.8653969425272 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 1159.08550312384 | 1051.56318637986 | 1266.60781986782 |
| 122 | 1229.28130021422 | 1107.17685022859 | 1351.38575019984 |
| 123 | 1210.42107684256 | 1073.14349830201 | 1347.6986553831 |
| 124 | 1212.42423531122 | 1059.40341604123 | 1365.44505458121 |
| 125 | 1345.18349618741 | 1175.86834232435 | 1514.49865005048 |
| 126 | 1417.40851374948 | 1231.2652997881 | 1603.55172771086 |
| 127 | 1014.28821520242 | 810.799130974958 | 1217.77729942989 |
| 128 | 871.621375784544 | 650.283247220297 | 1092.95950434879 |
| 129 | 638.834561213148 | 399.157721875842 | 878.511400550454 |
| 130 | 504.759135222363 | 246.266427750763 | 763.251842693963 |
| 131 | 459.149476048501 | 181.375365301605 | 736.923586795398 |
| 132 | 651.333828077455 | 353.823610418487 | 948.844045736423 |
