| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0128283839087205 |
| beta | 0.316844895712562 |
| gamma | 0.882098913021525 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 660 | 665.88141025641 | -5.88141025641005 |
| 14 | 710 | 717.553617412324 | -7.55361741232377 |
| 15 | 660 | 667.090337026059 | -7.09033702605905 |
| 16 | 590 | 595.354180338119 | -5.35418033811925 |
| 17 | 660 | 664.451866424001 | -4.45186642400074 |
| 18 | 710 | 713.1263659808 | -3.12636598080041 |
| 19 | 620 | 651.388495447433 | -31.3884954474333 |
| 20 | 700 | 720.827152205355 | -20.827152205355 |
| 21 | 690 | 666.983306386971 | 23.0166936130295 |
| 22 | 680 | 667.962126757558 | 12.0378732424424 |
| 23 | 640 | 642.182369174323 | -2.18236917432284 |
| 24 | 810 | 790.794651720303 | 19.2053482796973 |
| 25 | 620 | 644.637934204941 | -24.6379342049414 |
| 26 | 700 | 694.400603896716 | 5.59939610328354 |
| 27 | 720 | 644.350141955479 | 75.649858044521 |
| 28 | 620 | 575.364200305037 | 44.6357996949632 |
| 29 | 630 | 646.269062647616 | -16.269062647616 |
| 30 | 680 | 696.278323645305 | -16.2783236453047 |
| 31 | 670 | 610.040228751358 | 59.9597712486421 |
| 32 | 720 | 690.497345442749 | 29.502654557251 |
| 33 | 660 | 676.332167697489 | -16.332167697489 |
| 34 | 630 | 667.940639809835 | -37.9406398098355 |
| 35 | 620 | 629.628454408439 | -9.62845440843864 |
| 36 | 810 | 797.230472490695 | 12.7695275093049 |
| 37 | 540 | 613.248245043084 | -73.2482450430842 |
| 38 | 690 | 688.954931351254 | 1.04506864874588 |
| 39 | 720 | 700.063740120904 | 19.936259879096 |
| 40 | 620 | 603.349057347005 | 16.6509426529954 |
| 41 | 650 | 620.738741771813 | 29.2612582281865 |
| 42 | 690 | 671.387823687533 | 18.6121763124668 |
| 43 | 660 | 652.189776239325 | 7.81022376067517 |
| 44 | 700 | 705.450012320833 | -5.45001232083303 |
| 45 | 630 | 650.775848534148 | -20.7758485341476 |
| 46 | 590 | 623.34454785684 | -33.3445478568402 |
| 47 | 570 | 609.597297040553 | -39.5972970405534 |
| 48 | 760 | 796.049037952508 | -36.0490379525078 |
| 49 | 500 | 536.069696566843 | -36.069696566843 |
| 50 | 660 | 676.629759292872 | -16.6297592928724 |
| 51 | 750 | 703.573196131837 | 46.4268038681626 |
| 52 | 680 | 604.05645867551 | 75.9435413244903 |
| 53 | 710 | 633.147533905913 | 76.8524660940867 |
| 54 | 620 | 675.287448149354 | -55.2874481493541 |
| 55 | 640 | 645.588211835875 | -5.58821183587543 |
| 56 | 720 | 686.928300611551 | 33.0716993884491 |
| 57 | 680 | 619.357927258143 | 60.642072741857 |
| 58 | 580 | 582.312505948983 | -2.31250594898302 |
| 59 | 530 | 563.930720251335 | -33.9307202513353 |
| 60 | 740 | 753.980112249707 | -13.9801122497074 |
| 61 | 480 | 494.790786212839 | -14.7907862128391 |
| 62 | 640 | 653.163176350586 | -13.1631763505862 |
| 63 | 690 | 735.685144282589 | -45.6851442825889 |
| 64 | 600 | 660.940510505268 | -60.9405105052676 |
| 65 | 640 | 688.761758446251 | -48.7617584462514 |
| 66 | 580 | 613.409178045264 | -33.4091780452636 |
| 67 | 690 | 626.540906793646 | 63.4590932063543 |
| 68 | 690 | 701.984856621581 | -11.9848566215809 |
| 69 | 720 | 657.21485778768 | 62.7851422123199 |
| 70 | 550 | 564.756426473543 | -14.7564264735435 |
| 71 | 510 | 518.011097294368 | -8.01109729436826 |
| 72 | 680 | 725.199695464181 | -45.1996954641811 |
| 73 | 450 | 464.211104968489 | -14.2111049684888 |
| 74 | 560 | 623.317736124438 | -63.3177361244376 |
| 75 | 730 | 675.982376005057 | 54.0176239949434 |
| 76 | 650 | 588.743557578501 | 61.2564424214988 |
| 77 | 680 | 628.745031695266 | 51.2549683047342 |
| 78 | 580 | 568.458385592672 | 11.5416144073276 |
| 79 | 750 | 667.114827644864 | 82.8851723551363 |
| 80 | 670 | 677.788454902462 | -7.78845490246238 |
| 81 | 670 | 698.873572364799 | -28.8735723647987 |
| 82 | 590 | 538.037709224864 | 51.9622907751364 |
| 83 | 480 | 498.613458733161 | -18.613458733161 |
| 84 | 810 | 673.831219189113 | 136.168780810887 |
| 85 | 350 | 443.439195864454 | -93.4391958644537 |
| 86 | 570 | 559.73177209545 | 10.2682279045499 |
| 87 | 710 | 716.776670582809 | -6.77667058280872 |
| 88 | 650 | 636.076926329062 | 13.9230736709383 |
| 89 | 710 | 667.58521112956 | 42.4147888704401 |
| 90 | 510 | 573.39064916353 | -63.3906491635298 |
| 91 | 800 | 733.693222373107 | 66.3067776268925 |
| 92 | 680 | 665.612369817865 | 14.3876301821349 |
| 93 | 660 | 669.126793892095 | -9.12679389209472 |
| 94 | 620 | 579.520394421259 | 40.4796055787408 |
| 95 | 580 | 479.031651697697 | 100.968348302303 |
| 96 | 830 | 791.590226636231 | 38.4097733637693 |
| 97 | 480 | 360.633065037443 | 119.366934962557 |
| 98 | 550 | 571.454912828649 | -21.4549128286493 |
| 99 | 720 | 714.614154792426 | 5.38584520757399 |
| 100 | 620 | 653.508565522935 | -33.5085655229346 |
| 101 | 730 | 710.438833500765 | 19.5611664992348 |
| 102 | 520 | 524.944980669552 | -4.94498066955248 |
| 103 | 870 | 800.300653640485 | 69.6993463595149 |
| 104 | 660 | 688.431820918185 | -28.4318209181853 |
| 105 | 650 | 672.125745513051 | -22.1257455130507 |
| 106 | 620 | 626.700930521409 | -6.70093052140896 |
| 107 | 560 | 579.239667014299 | -19.2396670142994 |
| 108 | 820 | 836.252784586751 | -16.2527845867514 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 475.339891019615 | 392.100117748809 | 558.579664290422 |
| 110 | 561.76938121443 | 478.517731591697 | 645.021030837164 |
| 111 | 728.427736603863 | 645.157811267063 | 811.697661940662 |
| 112 | 633.213977772237 | 549.918007280522 | 716.509948263953 |
| 113 | 736.752040796986 | 653.420889283878 | 820.083192310094 |
| 114 | 529.553918095238 | 446.177088300985 | 612.930747889491 |
| 115 | 869.878343184765 | 786.443983079429 | 953.3127032901 |
| 116 | 671.287431075461 | 587.782342276312 | 754.79251987461 |
| 117 | 660.575881265553 | 576.985529442194 | 744.166233088912 |
| 118 | 628.695071094421 | 545.003598542574 | 712.386543646268 |
| 119 | 570.256988096372 | 486.447228646192 | 654.066747546551 |
| 120 | 830.05178477527 | 746.105281182407 | 913.998288368132 |
