| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.712774492128901 |
| beta | 0.0879254927782068 |
| gamma | 0.572121663469379 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 5444.35 | 5385.60260416667 | 58.7473958333321 |
| 14 | 5424 | 5408.86132468079 | 15.1386753192137 |
| 15 | 5441.85 | 5441.38353489928 | 0.466465100717869 |
| 16 | 5447.6 | 5452.40616845448 | -4.80616845448003 |
| 17 | 5454.45 | 5460.38606235574 | -5.93606235573588 |
| 18 | 5478.8 | 5484.50941078714 | -5.70941078714168 |
| 19 | 5490.5 | 5467.72191258179 | 22.7780874182135 |
| 20 | 5500.75 | 5504.4108530622 | -3.6608530621952 |
| 21 | 5504.25 | 5537.26077833625 | -33.0107783362537 |
| 22 | 5513.65 | 5528.33242210692 | -14.6824221069219 |
| 23 | 5523.75 | 5529.40413789313 | -5.65413789313425 |
| 24 | 5536.4 | 5536.80871695805 | -0.408716958054356 |
| 25 | 5547.65 | 5578.91782181042 | -31.2678218104156 |
| 26 | 5562.85 | 5526.66637076126 | 36.1836292387452 |
| 27 | 5570.4 | 5568.9132531184 | 1.48674688159826 |
| 28 | 5589.7 | 5576.99603845379 | 12.7039615462108 |
| 29 | 5621.7 | 5595.56777338525 | 26.1322266147481 |
| 30 | 5612.3 | 5642.89231882127 | -30.5923188212691 |
| 31 | 5631.7 | 5611.79726574337 | 19.9027342566296 |
| 32 | 5652.85 | 5640.6589254356 | 12.1910745644009 |
| 33 | 5645.45 | 5679.54499877771 | -34.094998777714 |
| 34 | 5664.1 | 5672.34806060746 | -8.24806060746141 |
| 35 | 5675.25 | 5679.38523442561 | -4.13523442561109 |
| 36 | 5689.65 | 5688.72521958067 | 0.924780419326453 |
| 37 | 5700.8 | 5726.78816729061 | -25.9881672906076 |
| 38 | 5711.35 | 5689.78933141115 | 21.5606685888515 |
| 39 | 5701.85 | 5715.40049151434 | -13.5504915143365 |
| 40 | 5732.5 | 5713.15483725674 | 19.345162743256 |
| 41 | 5714.6 | 5737.62951975615 | -23.0295197561545 |
| 42 | 5746.35 | 5736.47301044939 | 9.87698955061478 |
| 43 | 5753 | 5740.93906139137 | 12.0609386086262 |
| 44 | 5764.1 | 5760.8704599832 | 3.229540016805 |
| 45 | 5767.8 | 5783.12766838094 | -15.3276683809399 |
| 46 | 5781.9 | 5792.09593001981 | -10.1959300198141 |
| 47 | 5805 | 5796.83944085565 | 8.16055914435401 |
| 48 | 5805.2 | 5814.96452250874 | -9.76452250874445 |
| 49 | 5835.4 | 5839.50541548819 | -4.10541548818946 |
| 50 | 5838.8 | 5825.80862080504 | 12.9913791949648 |
| 51 | 5851.1 | 5838.89599107947 | 12.2040089205329 |
| 52 | 5854.85 | 5861.38114979498 | -6.53114979498332 |
| 53 | 5854.95 | 5859.79480410266 | -4.84480410265678 |
| 54 | 5870.9 | 5877.49330161265 | -6.59330161264916 |
| 55 | 5873.6 | 5870.03236917774 | 3.56763082225825 |
| 56 | 5882.75 | 5881.38016082749 | 1.36983917251291 |
| 57 | 5867.7 | 5898.06725645549 | -30.3672564554881 |
| 58 | 5879.05 | 5895.02132685631 | -15.9713268563119 |
| 59 | 5895.6 | 5896.1651714788 | -0.56517147879913 |
| 60 | 5891.5 | 5902.07873794162 | -10.5787379416215 |
| 61 | 5954.05 | 5923.8717552494 | 30.1782447506002 |
| 62 | 5952.95 | 5936.47207993229 | 16.4779200677067 |
| 63 | 5960.15 | 5951.18480572659 | 8.96519427341264 |
| 64 | 5942.6 | 5967.34935516851 | -24.7493551685111 |
| 65 | 5957.55 | 5950.97954220952 | 6.57045779048076 |
| 66 | 5949.15 | 5975.16751777345 | -26.0175177734527 |
| 67 | 5940.5 | 5952.95418612684 | -12.4541861268426 |
| 68 | 5940.1 | 5948.93973425615 | -8.83973425614477 |
| 69 | 5926.2 | 5948.91342778147 | -22.7134277814685 |
| 70 | 5926.8 | 5949.947291696 | -23.1472916960001 |
| 71 | 5915.3 | 5944.31691436826 | -29.0169143682642 |
| 72 | 5912.05 | 5922.33115602209 | -10.281156022088 |
| 73 | 5897 | 5945.07830320099 | -48.0783032009913 |
| 74 | 5887.75 | 5888.7881009366 | -1.03810093659558 |
| 75 | 5882.6 | 5877.82364597907 | 4.77635402092983 |
| 76 | 5905.45 | 5873.24207856808 | 32.2079214319183 |
| 77 | 5872 | 5893.96607588406 | -21.96607588406 |
| 78 | 5881.95 | 5882.01980509824 | -0.0698050982391578 |
| 79 | 5878.4 | 5871.71732750914 | 6.68267249085511 |
| 80 | 5874.2 | 5874.3235747753 | -0.123574775298039 |
| 81 | 5896.4 | 5871.16281892969 | 25.2371810703144 |
| 82 | 5890 | 5902.2412025801 | -12.241202580105 |
| 83 | 5888.5 | 5900.0412052731 | -11.5412052731017 |
| 84 | 5873.3 | 5891.3070569648 | -18.0070569647996 |
| 85 | 5898.9 | 5899.56862342912 | -0.668623429119179 |
| 86 | 5887.65 | 5885.0044368056 | 2.64556319439998 |
| 87 | 5907.2 | 5878.0555260526 | 29.1444739473955 |
| 88 | 5921.3 | 5897.31232640331 | 23.9876735966864 |
| 89 | 5918.75 | 5904.72128868491 | 14.0287113150853 |
| 90 | 5920.95 | 5925.73163315768 | -4.78163315767688 |
| 91 | 5935.65 | 5916.58729033585 | 19.0627096641538 |
| 92 | 5941.3 | 5931.08211057819 | 10.2178894218077 |
| 93 | 5936 | 5944.29093250273 | -8.29093250272854 |
| 94 | 5931.4 | 5948.04230982495 | -16.6423098249488 |
| 95 | 5943.8 | 5945.27424584504 | -1.47424584503551 |
| 96 | 5949.85 | 5945.73785746984 | 4.11214253015896 |
| 97 | 5953.75 | 5977.08565562741 | -23.3356556274057 |
| 98 | 5963.75 | 5949.96007493429 | 13.7899250657056 |
| 99 | 5977.1 | 5959.05799603867 | 18.0420039613255 |
| 100 | 5973.7 | 5972.60693288578 | 1.09306711421777 |
| 101 | 6005.75 | 5963.67893921377 | 42.0710607862329 |
| 102 | 6014.5 | 6004.96180472548 | 9.53819527451651 |
| 103 | 6023.35 | 6014.21571533625 | 9.13428466375444 |
| 104 | 6042.8 | 6023.83128500664 | 18.9687149933634 |
| 105 | 6027.7 | 6044.43530766876 | -16.7353076687577 |
| 106 | 6041.15 | 6044.4655193105 | -3.3155193105049 |
| 107 | 6058.45 | 6058.19432637508 | 0.255673624918927 |
| 108 | 6073.2 | 6065.42273407293 | 7.77726592706676 |
| 109 | 6096.1 | 6099.71594975674 | -3.61594975673597 |
| 110 | 6103.3 | 6098.82614812655 | 4.47385187345299 |
| 111 | 6101.55 | 6107.47800286598 | -5.92800286597867 |
| 112 | 6115.15 | 6105.14977863985 | 10.0002213601529 |
| 113 | 6146.25 | 6113.8558592702 | 32.3941407297953 |
| 114 | 6134.3 | 6146.84019452017 | -12.5401945201675 |
| 115 | 6136.65 | 6142.85213256206 | -6.20213256205898 |
| 116 | 6168.05 | 6144.75253181832 | 23.2974681816813 |
| 117 | 6182.8 | 6164.44626346236 | 18.3537365376405 |
| 118 | 6204.3 | 6195.76281652576 | 8.53718347424456 |
| 119 | 6220.85 | 6223.34011551487 | -2.49011551486728 |
| 120 | 6229.75 | 6234.48866195741 | -4.73866195741266 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 6261.84549303721 | 6226.49985025673 | 6297.19113581769 |
| 122 | 6268.94591706793 | 6224.21844259519 | 6313.67339154067 |
| 123 | 6276.50271651983 | 6222.85465321884 | 6330.15077982081 |
| 124 | 6285.19189540426 | 6222.80735085231 | 6347.57643995621 |
| 125 | 6293.99791718798 | 6222.92393567989 | 6365.07189869606 |
| 126 | 6298.02629124969 | 6218.23301579994 | 6377.81956669944 |
| 127 | 6306.32171040261 | 6217.73269842371 | 6394.9107223815 |
| 128 | 6320.18276387524 | 6222.69192675563 | 6417.67360099484 |
| 129 | 6323.69050834211 | 6217.17228732179 | 6430.20872936243 |
| 130 | 6340.39385144497 | 6224.70966466807 | 6456.07803822188 |
| 131 | 6359.62093548033 | 6234.62343122261 | 6484.61843973806 |
| 132 | 6371.87789683671 | 6237.41384894178 | 6506.34194473164 |
