| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.172765202577926 |
| beta | 0.0451012729291031 |
| gamma | 0.48799554925451 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3530 | 3296.25534188034 | 233.744658119657 |
| 14 | 3590 | 3411.00914103489 | 178.990858965108 |
| 15 | 3840 | 3683.94807332947 | 156.051926670528 |
| 16 | 3520 | 3391.63990211471 | 128.360097885289 |
| 17 | 2820 | 2734.29771945876 | 85.7022805412425 |
| 18 | 3310 | 3261.50353656613 | 48.4964634338662 |
| 19 | 2870 | 3185.15936421907 | -315.159364219074 |
| 20 | 3340 | 3214.78241925944 | 125.217580740564 |
| 21 | 3660 | 3327.71297309968 | 332.287026900317 |
| 22 | 3650 | 3759.42374585773 | -109.423745857727 |
| 23 | 3670 | 3828.96964525068 | -158.96964525068 |
| 24 | 3050 | 3159.55039019543 | -109.550390195432 |
| 25 | 3770 | 3975.09177665652 | -205.091776656516 |
| 26 | 3480 | 3993.14916090484 | -513.149160904844 |
| 27 | 3780 | 4133.07977108752 | -353.07977108752 |
| 28 | 2750 | 3733.49494672498 | -983.49494672498 |
| 29 | 3600 | 2850.04141899331 | 749.958581006691 |
| 30 | 3550 | 3465.36286739198 | 84.6371326080211 |
| 31 | 2750 | 3237.11581509467 | -487.115815094671 |
| 32 | 3480 | 3402.12167329597 | 77.8783267040303 |
| 33 | 3870 | 3577.41250059275 | 292.587499407252 |
| 34 | 3640 | 3810.59001482815 | -170.590014828147 |
| 35 | 3340 | 3835.72916819342 | -495.729168193423 |
| 36 | 3030 | 3111.6171722836 | -81.6171722836029 |
| 37 | 3850 | 3877.170974938 | -27.1709749379975 |
| 38 | 3400 | 3786.74983300645 | -386.749833006453 |
| 39 | 3450 | 3999.2623398488 | -549.262339848799 |
| 40 | 3000 | 3295.89158127283 | -295.89158127283 |
| 41 | 3190 | 3220.96016024734 | -30.9601602473399 |
| 42 | 4100 | 3416.65529919119 | 683.344700808806 |
| 43 | 2960 | 3049.57082198847 | -89.5708219884709 |
| 44 | 3640 | 3502.97291310917 | 137.027086890832 |
| 45 | 4210 | 3767.25230956895 | 442.747690431053 |
| 46 | 4040 | 3832.65806428563 | 207.34193571437 |
| 47 | 3470 | 3788.0455897081 | -318.045589708096 |
| 48 | 3380 | 3259.39651767259 | 120.603482327409 |
| 49 | 4490 | 4081.03571540857 | 408.964284591429 |
| 50 | 3670 | 3923.37411745252 | -253.374117452522 |
| 51 | 3650 | 4096.93221292507 | -446.932212925068 |
| 52 | 3520 | 3517.92742071317 | 2.07257928683202 |
| 53 | 3470 | 3608.14932352915 | -138.149323529146 |
| 54 | 3570 | 4079.57235037685 | -509.572350376855 |
| 55 | 3440 | 3190.97325038131 | 249.026749618687 |
| 56 | 3580 | 3793.58195960344 | -213.581959603438 |
| 57 | 4120 | 4117.20592710271 | 2.79407289728988 |
| 58 | 4370 | 4004.64691019846 | 365.353089801542 |
| 59 | 3250 | 3769.5465389644 | -519.546538964401 |
| 60 | 3260 | 3375.89725237469 | -115.897252374692 |
| 61 | 3610 | 4263.97728760316 | -653.977287603158 |
| 62 | 3600 | 3637.90912753492 | -37.9091275349188 |
| 63 | 3620 | 3754.8441862408 | -134.844186240797 |
| 64 | 3020 | 3397.73544376775 | -377.735443767753 |
| 65 | 3240 | 3349.49529986853 | -109.495299868529 |
| 66 | 3360 | 3659.91471352756 | -299.914713527563 |
| 67 | 3450 | 3099.39189254982 | 350.608107450179 |
| 68 | 3640 | 3519.210981496 | 120.789018504001 |
| 69 | 3690 | 3976.96591514383 | -286.965915143832 |
| 70 | 3870 | 3947.46411759088 | -77.4641175908764 |
| 71 | 3810 | 3261.94489055917 | 548.055109440831 |
| 72 | 3430 | 3207.31356195055 | 222.686438049446 |
| 73 | 3910 | 3930.93705063578 | -20.9370506357814 |
| 74 | 3800 | 3662.13130082979 | 137.868699170208 |
| 75 | 4140 | 3770.86932687679 | 369.130673123207 |
| 76 | 3350 | 3407.27091034271 | -57.2709103427073 |
| 77 | 3360 | 3529.67098172811 | -169.670981728113 |
| 78 | 3310 | 3759.34548739577 | -449.345487395766 |
| 79 | 2850 | 3440.97059337856 | -590.970593378555 |
| 80 | 3630 | 3603.36280039634 | 26.6371996036642 |
| 81 | 4340 | 3877.53273518034 | 462.467264819657 |
| 82 | 4260 | 4065.20605918648 | 194.79394081352 |
| 83 | 3690 | 3684.48489923014 | 5.51510076985915 |
| 84 | 2990 | 3405.79446318287 | -415.794463182875 |
| 85 | 3620 | 3916.8080571899 | -296.808057189898 |
| 86 | 3590 | 3658.344628378 | -68.3446283780036 |
| 87 | 3940 | 3817.10222697917 | 122.897773020828 |
| 88 | 2970 | 3229.20060148505 | -259.200601485052 |
| 89 | 3470 | 3260.13639144791 | 209.863608552092 |
| 90 | 4310 | 3434.2342195225 | 875.765780477497 |
| 91 | 3060 | 3289.69930325852 | -229.69930325852 |
| 92 | 3480 | 3768.72085467694 | -288.720854676936 |
| 93 | 4190 | 4166.78359275812 | 23.2164072418809 |
| 94 | 3470 | 4169.52764076024 | -699.527640760236 |
| 95 | 2650 | 3549.93515348018 | -899.935153480177 |
| 96 | 2620 | 2929.72777373428 | -309.727773734276 |
| 97 | 3620 | 3492.91622283816 | 127.083777161837 |
| 98 | 3090 | 3389.0341502921 | -299.034150292103 |
| 99 | 3620 | 3572.46106665952 | 47.5389333404846 |
| 100 | 2820 | 2804.02714478422 | 15.9728552157803 |
| 101 | 3060 | 3060.73773860549 | -0.737738605494997 |
| 102 | 3600 | 3454.50530357619 | 145.494696423806 |
| 103 | 2940 | 2719.09130025381 | 220.908699746194 |
| 104 | 3550 | 3237.19523046171 | 312.804769538286 |
| 105 | 4590 | 3854.85191975921 | 735.148080240788 |
| 106 | 3120 | 3684.12427471974 | -564.124274719743 |
| 107 | 2800 | 3003.37153461456 | -203.371534614562 |
| 108 | 3380 | 2743.54131665027 | 636.458683349727 |
| 109 | 3490 | 3655.6818003949 | -165.681800394902 |
| 110 | 2940 | 3336.06942873563 | -396.069428735628 |
| 111 | 3500 | 3648.75057702184 | -148.750577021841 |
| 112 | 2980 | 2838.24390962272 | 141.756090377276 |
| 113 | 3040 | 3115.50177967518 | -75.5017796751836 |
| 114 | 4160 | 3560.36443994077 | 599.635560059226 |
| 115 | 3110 | 2942.37205587914 | 167.62794412086 |
| 116 | 3890 | 3496.47124086381 | 393.528759136191 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 117 | 4307.30075968938 | 3617.61727530453 | 4996.98424407423 |
| 118 | 3488.0697280562 | 2787.23426214313 | 4188.90519396927 |
| 119 | 3057.80865357625 | 2345.03612180221 | 3770.58118535029 |
| 120 | 3181.12653946276 | 2455.6308034585 | 3906.62227546702 |
| 121 | 3663.52038609502 | 2924.51683263598 | 4402.52393955406 |
| 122 | 3284.84345895755 | 2531.55134545648 | 4038.13557245863 |
| 123 | 3774.19301025388 | 3005.83756471387 | 4542.5484557939 |
| 124 | 3116.22006391611 | 2332.03433443203 | 3900.40579340019 |
| 125 | 3289.73976646086 | 2488.96622157658 | 4090.51331134513 |
| 126 | 4029.23541899012 | 3211.12730554283 | 4847.34353243741 |
| 127 | 3137.62355501839 | 2301.44602443717 | 3973.80108559962 |
| 128 | 3757.02201261129 | 2902.05302996597 | 4611.99099525661 |
