| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.17091605305629 |
| beta | 0.271771008090619 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 3750 | 3700 | 50 |
| 4 | 3800 | 3810.86830405471 | -10.8683040547135 |
| 5 | 4100 | 3910.8284047961 | 189.171595203901 |
| 6 | 3900 | 4053.76556147375 | -153.765561473755 |
| 7 | 3650 | 4130.94683824399 | -480.946838243987 |
| 8 | 3800 | 4129.86758843352 | -329.867588433524 |
| 9 | 4050 | 4139.28784896781 | -89.2878489678133 |
| 10 | 4250 | 4185.67962592889 | 64.3203740711133 |
| 11 | 4450 | 4261.31319726778 | 188.68680273222 |
| 12 | 4200 | 4366.96749500344 | -166.967495003444 |
| 13 | 4050 | 4404.07911909328 | -354.079119093281 |
| 14 | 4050 | 4392.76337790319 | -342.763377903186 |
| 15 | 4200 | 4367.46031002071 | -167.460310020713 |
| 16 | 4450 | 4364.34081449366 | 85.6591855063389 |
| 17 | 4400 | 4408.46237566217 | -8.46237566217224 |
| 18 | 4450 | 4436.10397350149 | 13.8960264985108 |
| 19 | 4200 | 4468.21245201123 | -268.212452011227 |
| 20 | 4050 | 4439.64558692431 | -389.64558692431 |
| 21 | 4500 | 4372.22480127029 | 127.775198729712 |
| 22 | 4650 | 4399.17469563309 | 250.82530436691 |
| 23 | 4850 | 4458.80667080004 | 391.193329199962 |
| 24 | 4700 | 4560.60073585637 | 139.399264143633 |
| 25 | 4350 | 4625.83425285821 | -275.834252858214 |
| 26 | 4500 | 4607.28518725833 | -107.285187258325 |
| 27 | 4700 | 4612.56046274089 | 87.4395372591143 |
| 28 | 4800 | 4655.17888852775 | 144.821111472246 |
| 29 | 4700 | 4714.33169118566 | -14.3316911856646 |
| 30 | 4600 | 4745.61701752303 | -145.617017523033 |
| 31 | 4400 | 4747.69965951186 | -347.699659511859 |
| 32 | 4300 | 4699.09247500765 | -399.092475007646 |
| 33 | 4750 | 4623.16357666959 | 126.836423330407 |
| 34 | 4800 | 4643.01592524366 | 156.984074756344 |
| 35 | 5000 | 4675.31290608231 | 324.687093917693 |
| 36 | 4900 | 4751.35474965768 | 148.645250342315 |
| 37 | 4400 | 4804.21279220252 | -404.212792202518 |
| 38 | 4650 | 4743.80282468405 | -93.8028246840468 |
| 39 | 4650 | 4732.08975980655 | -82.0897598065476 |
| 40 | 4900 | 4718.56557410246 | 181.434425897542 |
| 41 | 4900 | 4758.50953627378 | 141.49046372622 |
| 42 | 5000 | 4798.19867009454 | 201.80132990546 |
| 43 | 4550 | 4857.56957655127 | -307.569576551271 |
| 44 | 4500 | 4815.59420268028 | -315.594202680277 |
| 45 | 5100 | 4757.58793182094 | 342.412068179061 |
| 46 | 5000 | 4827.95054583063 | 172.049454169373 |
| 47 | 5350 | 4877.18715623551 | 472.812843764488 |
| 48 | 5150 | 4999.7912279434 | 150.208772056598 |
| 49 | 4500 | 5074.23428668867 | -574.23428668867 |
| 50 | 4600 | 4998.18519845211 | -398.185198452114 |
| 51 | 4900 | 4933.7300118887 | -33.7300118886997 |
| 52 | 5050 | 4929.99930733065 | 120.000692669353 |
| 53 | 5000 | 4958.11768356829 | 41.8823164317128 |
| 54 | 5350 | 4974.82981004077 | 375.170189959227 |
| 55 | 4650 | 5065.93285023073 | -415.932850230725 |
| 56 | 4650 | 5002.50358867545 | -352.503588675446 |
| 57 | 5200 | 4933.54160457601 | 266.458395423992 |
| 58 | 5300 | 4982.74715972913 | 317.252840270866 |
| 59 | 5700 | 5055.37070423838 | 644.629295761617 |
| 60 | 5250 | 5213.8911892459 | 36.1088107541018 |
| 61 | 4900 | 5270.08301002398 | -370.083010023976 |
| 62 | 5200 | 5239.65976181893 | -39.6597618189253 |
| 63 | 5250 | 5263.86895398665 | -13.8689539866509 |
| 64 | 5450 | 5291.84199593266 | 158.158004067336 |
| 65 | 5750 | 5356.5636502919 | 393.436349708096 |
| 66 | 5450 | 5479.77328033278 | -29.7732803327772 |
| 67 | 5100 | 5529.26662108541 | -429.266621085411 |
| 68 | 4950 | 5490.54069022915 | -540.540690229149 |
| 69 | 5550 | 5407.68810445051 | 142.311895549487 |
| 70 | 5800 | 5448.15637899086 | 351.843621009144 |
| 71 | 6050 | 5540.7801350977 | 509.219864902305 |
| 72 | 5650 | 5683.95529465778 | -33.9552946577842 |
| 73 | 5500 | 5732.71587543875 | -232.715875438751 |
| 74 | 5600 | 5736.69542331045 | -136.695423310446 |
| 75 | 5550 | 5750.73690162716 | -200.736901627158 |
| 76 | 5900 | 5744.50842852925 | 155.49157147075 |
| 77 | 5900 | 5806.38770789399 | 93.6122921060087 |
| 78 | 5850 | 5862.03911865677 | -12.0391186567667 |
| 79 | 5350 | 5899.07378989298 | -549.07378989298 |
| 80 | 5150 | 5818.81612183167 | -668.81612183167 |
| 81 | 5850 | 5687.02603940031 | 162.97396059969 |
| 82 | 6000 | 5704.9723798688 | 295.027620131199 |
| 83 | 6250 | 5759.19285184313 | 490.807148156871 |
| 84 | 5800 | 5869.67319380995 | -69.6731938099529 |
| 85 | 5550 | 5881.1221261062 | -331.122126106199 |
| 86 | 5700 | 5832.50460677696 | -132.504606776963 |
| 87 | 5850 | 5811.67916721936 | 38.3208327806406 |
| 88 | 6150 | 5821.83054130965 | 328.169458690353 |
| 89 | 6050 | 5896.76517908159 | 153.234820918414 |
| 90 | 6050 | 5948.91844075077 | 101.081559249232 |
| 91 | 5550 | 5996.85311404269 | -446.853114042692 |
| 92 | 5100 | 5930.38061596673 | -830.380615966732 |
| 93 | 5900 | 5759.78590812953 | 140.214091870472 |
| 94 | 6050 | 5761.59436537189 | 288.405634628114 |
| 95 | 6150 | 5802.12758601349 | 347.872413986513 |
| 96 | 5700 | 5868.98331725431 | -168.983317254309 |
| 97 | 5200 | 5839.65082708751 | -639.650827087512 |
| 98 | 5400 | 5700.16190498546 | -300.161904985462 |
| 99 | 5550 | 5604.75456060292 | -54.7545606029207 |
| 100 | 5750 | 5548.74792003806 | 201.252079961942 |
| 101 | 5700 | 5545.84508879167 | 154.154911208326 |
| 102 | 5650 | 5542.05309529962 | 107.946904700385 |
| 103 | 5400 | 5535.37754846557 | -135.377548465566 |
| 104 | 4950 | 5480.82565556237 | -530.825655562374 |
| 105 | 5900 | 5334.02846642146 | 565.971533578536 |
| 106 | 6050 | 5400.98091745517 | 649.019082544828 |
| 107 | 6350 | 5512.27448235559 | 837.725517644413 |
| 108 | 6350 | 5694.73338011226 | 655.266619887742 |
| 109 | 5500 | 5876.44427608549 | -376.444276085494 |
| 110 | 5800 | 5864.33337064491 | -64.3333706449093 |
| 111 | 6100 | 5902.57894240782 | 197.42105759218 |
| 112 | 6350 | 5994.73276157546 | 355.267238424535 |
| 113 | 6400 | 6130.36720014678 | 269.63279985322 |
| 114 | 6850 | 6263.88978958493 | 586.110210415065 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 115 | 6478.72828462492 | 5846.40160601629 | 7111.05496323355 |
| 116 | 6593.39113584477 | 5946.29876710302 | 7240.48350458652 |
| 117 | 6708.05398706462 | 6039.80495652739 | 7376.30301760185 |
| 118 | 6822.71683828447 | 6126.26360317242 | 7519.17007339652 |
| 119 | 6937.37968950432 | 6205.31074455206 | 7669.44863445658 |
| 120 | 7052.04254072417 | 6276.85505241068 | 7827.23002903767 |
| 121 | 7166.70539194402 | 6341.02712824304 | 7992.383655645 |
| 122 | 7281.36824316387 | 6398.1144968812 | 8164.62198944654 |
| 123 | 7396.03109438372 | 6448.49809844768 | 8343.56409031976 |
| 124 | 7510.69394560357 | 6492.60025140292 | 8528.78763980423 |
| 125 | 7625.35679682342 | 6530.84752938863 | 8719.86606425822 |
| 126 | 7740.01964804328 | 6563.64748830664 | 8916.39180777991 |
| 127 | 7854.68249926313 | 6591.3761563253 | 9117.98884220095 |
| 128 | 7969.34535048298 | 6614.37291864586 | 9324.31778232009 |
| 129 | 8084.00820170283 | 6632.93998696384 | 9535.07641644181 |
| 130 | 8198.67105292268 | 6647.34442216565 | 9749.9976836797 |
| 131 | 8313.33390414253 | 6657.82137737734 | 9968.84643090772 |
| 132 | 8427.99675536238 | 6664.57775308447 | 10191.4157576403 |
