| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 5033 | 5033 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 4509.5 | 4616.82750595925 | -425.042535799469 | -107.327505959245 | -0.704521482610434 |
| 3 | 3970 | 3958.43793899277 | -592.532231458455 | 11.5620610072287 | -0.26544046162309 |
| 4 | 3378 | 3359.94214191376 | -597.059022247644 | 18.0578580862443 | -0.00685227625260278 |
| 5 | 2866 | 2844.20114208326 | -536.680504292359 | 21.7988579167426 | 0.0891283776203645 |
| 6 | 2315.5 | 2317.54646501701 | -529.252181208503 | -2.04646501700972 | 0.0110530070076059 |
| 7 | 1895 | 1873.31083452835 | -466.09894952834 | 21.6891654716516 | 0.0938516448066338 |
| 8 | 8401.5 | 7017.95887311077 | 3703.0860788229 | 1383.54112688923 | 6.19445517173349 |
| 9 | 8040 | 8902.16618308934 | 2351.72757153991 | -862.166183089342 | -2.00790732594875 |
| 10 | 7534 | 8160.82100415 | 54.0411689999787 | -626.82100415 | -3.41394320543733 |
| 11 | 7135.5 | 7163.47410254672 | -726.958438908862 | -27.9741025467206 | -1.16042332026323 |
| 12 | 6466.5 | 6395.86139596866 | -757.158235594205 | 70.6386040313425 | -0.0448714134403162 |
| 13 | 5661.5 | 5659.08984148977 | -742.048350476288 | 2.41015851023153 | 0.0225121205318313 |
| 14 | 4896 | 4960.22615877008 | -709.929713047367 | -64.2261587700842 | 0.0484541716588885 |
| 15 | 4064.5 | 4132.18433838217 | -794.376044125048 | -67.6843383821715 | -0.125049631224822 |
| 16 | 3296 | 3250.57679053648 | -856.859803436102 | 45.4232094635243 | -0.0942114623146908 |
| 17 | 2593.5 | 2280.34431873416 | -938.334322044441 | 313.155681265841 | -0.120841549962953 |
| 18 | 2007 | 1765.92367876622 | -635.842291090403 | 241.076321233784 | 0.448820748933709 |
| 19 | 1513.5 | 2768.19136793266 | 533.869314195179 | -1254.69136793266 | 1.73919387884509 |
| 20 | 6645 | 4703.82337454831 | 1536.04427044976 | 1941.17662545169 | 1.48912088612596 |
| 21 | 6221.5 | 6383.54344944973 | 1638.78233060113 | -162.043449449725 | 0.152644209791081 |
| 22 | 5474 | 6305.60864804918 | 411.273981118909 | -831.608648049184 | -1.82395375463778 |
| 23 | 5135.5 | 5413.74260539255 | -520.250934411812 | -278.242605392548 | -1.38408184110276 |
| 24 | 4630.5 | 4580.6741213022 | -743.65819417581 | 49.825878697798 | -0.332029506874725 |
| 25 | 4164 | 4091.89845398471 | -561.62414871879 | 72.1015460152909 | 0.271245678948102 |
| 26 | 3600.5 | 3622.6134394073 | -495.594746664965 | -22.1134394073038 | 0.0982448629977701 |
| 27 | 2969 | 2997.30942627341 | -587.3228042132 | -28.3094262734095 | -0.136031560021605 |
| 28 | 2503.5 | 2303.67270115391 | -662.393154133228 | 199.827298846085 | -0.112184016866781 |
| 29 | 2054.5 | 1702.36671828469 | -619.073117320586 | 352.133281715313 | 0.0644341555125677 |
| 30 | 1608.5 | 1670.67766421777 | -203.965387645647 | -62.1776642177681 | 0.615719290701315 |
| 31 | 1297.5 | 2765.20130364783 | 712.514521995945 | -1467.70130364783 | 1.3619009978878 |
| 32 | 8485 | 6091.00683410164 | 2558.98000079227 | 2393.99316589836 | 2.74412982793698 |
| 33 | 8163.5 | 8128.65335352861 | 2190.43774974574 | 34.8466464713947 | -0.547563075819571 |
| 34 | 7814 | 8677.52581251995 | 1030.01038747875 | -863.525812519954 | -1.72427255610985 |
| 35 | 7453.5 | 8029.24659595275 | -155.818224741883 | -575.746595952748 | -1.76192457258335 |
| 36 | 6888.5 | 7079.55275317667 | -716.3744615793 | -191.052753176672 | -0.833373948845052 |
| 37 | 6283.5 | 6250.78059525447 | -795.793033427732 | 32.7194047455265 | -0.118214891987606 |
| 38 | 5712 | 5622.14044916234 | -677.728812560969 | 89.8595508376565 | 0.175393843517265 |
| 39 | 5030 | 4935.21809982455 | -684.18823197498 | 94.7819001754528 | -0.00958822264751012 |
| 40 | 4488 | 4152.09134392705 | -753.63500593061 | 335.908656072945 | -0.103466667713145 |
| 41 | 4058.5 | 3639.84876571992 | -583.719859878278 | 418.651234280084 | 0.252797288971783 |
| 42 | 3585 | 3859.1600231785 | -19.1611745514269 | -274.160023178503 | 0.837925865116478 |
| 43 | 3199.5 | 5250.70824382091 | 971.120903938951 | -2051.20824382091 | 1.47090179633525 |
| 44 | 8181 | 5908.57241182703 | 751.116597103218 | 2272.42758817297 | -0.326938049625503 |
| 45 | 8219.5 | 7540.31419143099 | 1369.9534762577 | 679.18580856901 | 0.919481170753568 |
| 46 | 7865.5 | 8426.13136773697 | 1029.72922651928 | -560.631367736974 | -0.505515022777389 |
| 47 | 7516.5 | 8174.87067894616 | 129.879126563379 | -658.370678946158 | -1.33709636584919 |
| 48 | 7116 | 7464.09549937966 | -460.516753109036 | -348.095499379664 | -0.877770965165623 |
| 49 | 6615.5 | 6695.34473728391 | -677.123078729056 | -79.8447372839071 | -0.322158642392882 |
| 50 | 6216.5 | 6061.17934638592 | -646.957365821803 | 155.320653614083 | 0.0448028211366937 |
| 51 | 5699.5 | 5463.93453231774 | -612.155846088507 | 235.56546768226 | 0.0516801584300121 |
| 52 | 5179 | 4816.08796373896 | -637.12677281301 | 362.912036261036 | -0.0371592401678603 |
| 53 | 4727.5 | 4438.65930203557 | -455.097305306777 | 288.840697964429 | 0.270763332590963 |
| 54 | 4224.5 | 4708.18705915079 | 52.6675493768345 | -483.687059150794 | 0.754021208767095 |
| 55 | 3780.5 | 5602.90317137503 | 642.004705742926 | -1822.40317137503 | 0.875238100163451 |
| 56 | 7023.5 | 5363.62930278043 | 25.2033528057069 | 1659.87069721957 | -0.916466654950347 |
| 57 | 6558 | 5695.80600488102 | 240.148645954458 | 862.193995118983 | 0.319378742991654 |
| 58 | 6257.5 | 6381.00021492944 | 551.79685562073 | -123.500214929443 | 0.463060149870137 |
| 59 | 5862.5 | 6424.76657535545 | 196.123523296877 | -562.266575355455 | -0.528540713362876 |
| 60 | 5343 | 5790.91714052728 | -384.968994469587 | -447.917140527281 | -0.863867636687984 |
| 61 | 4756 | 4936.12671966934 | -714.042913644619 | -180.126719669338 | -0.489199816026761 |
| 62 | 4173.5 | 4032.99323885813 | -846.385512330679 | 140.506761141871 | -0.196555646168693 |
| 63 | 3451.5 | 3147.77958128464 | -873.506416076379 | 303.720418715359 | -0.0402827713556766 |
| 64 | 2849 | 2471.52581658941 | -735.778536261193 | 377.474183410595 | 0.204839416941093 |
| 65 | 2351 | 2184.98661144077 | -421.71276192229 | 166.013388559229 | 0.467061684556341 |
| 66 | 1887.5 | 2435.73585545749 | 48.4495469370833 | -548.235855457494 | 0.698402196374016 |
| 67 | 1416.5 | 2880.07479072482 | 324.999372090203 | -1463.57479072482 | 0.41071664291179 |
| 68 | 7399 | 5351.11024273754 | 1823.72855833688 | 2047.88975726246 | 2.2266081918263 |
| 69 | 7013 | 6577.7357631928 | 1406.6304898479 | 435.264236807203 | -0.619749598877089 |
| 70 | 6644.5 | 6900.03075333667 | 649.11324979097 | -255.530753336669 | -1.1256050740561 |
| 71 | 6238.5 | 6755.71047364937 | 94.8536803418322 | -517.210473649372 | -0.823701569424322 |
| 72 | 5721 | 6196.30723524615 | -362.263961962818 | -475.30723524615 | -0.679495415566534 |
| 73 | 5137.5 | 5352.15701021391 | -699.030897582827 | -214.657010213912 | -0.5005015799871 |
| 74 | 4357 | 4241.22093179296 | -986.686685652645 | 115.779068207038 | -0.427240344959149 |
| 75 | 3750.5 | 3376.97701934883 | -901.298562687177 | 373.522980651168 | 0.126841480154405 |
| 76 | 3324 | 2881.82496658116 | -618.131783261509 | 442.175033418842 | 0.42102472266378 |
| 77 | 2861 | 2691.38742769239 | -319.670518033371 | 169.612572307613 | 0.443783402606002 |
| 78 | 2455.5 | 3014.76875763391 | 129.177041780151 | -559.268757633906 | 0.666860765231486 |
| 79 | 2027.5 | 4022.15495584736 | 741.776283660819 | -1994.65495584736 | 0.909857269557189 |
| 80 | 8388.5 | 5961.16784702329 | 1576.58045789755 | 2427.33215297671 | 1.24014900432542 |
| 81 | 7910 | 7305.37234961396 | 1414.54376108862 | 604.627650386045 | -0.240760776159438 |
| 82 | 7686 | 7934.52624864184 | 866.841379650267 | -248.526248641841 | -0.813881939479454 |
| 83 | 7163 | 7758.23902028627 | 139.351906012161 | -595.239020286273 | -1.08119739115744 |
| 84 | 6841.5 | 7296.7175740084 | -279.801075394354 | -455.2175740084 | -0.623009326805955 |
| 85 | 6448.5 | 6603.58321459681 | -568.165013720301 | -155.083214596808 | -0.428499267142166 |
| 86 | 6060.5 | 5940.60514345085 | -634.268846321716 | 119.894856549153 | -0.0981841086194269 |
| 87 | 5739 | 5380.97958259093 | -582.281906662251 | 358.020417409073 | 0.0772300814682105 |
| 88 | 5362.5 | 4919.90058193071 | -497.881524452602 | 442.599418069289 | 0.125469196656764 |
| 89 | 5081 | 4915.59222377344 | -153.93939990387 | 165.407776226564 | 0.511349710983088 |
| 90 | 4764 | 5459.22520141862 | 332.290909027028 | -695.225201418618 | 0.722474658254793 |
| 91 | 4522.5 | 6737.95224804766 | 991.681096074005 | -2215.45224804766 | 0.97941948045958 |
| 92 | 9056.5 | 6877.74011070784 | 398.433973625291 | 2178.75988929216 | -0.881268584848559 |
| 93 | 8352 | 7477.34877209462 | 538.514276904892 | 874.651227905377 | 0.20813373308593 |
| 94 | 7683 | 7740.09037277685 | 346.477300800139 | -57.0903727768479 | -0.285377743659764 |
| 95 | 7319.5 | 7808.06003208778 | 152.505692179379 | -488.560032087782 | -0.288290495545492 |
| 96 | 6708 | 7212.17622617011 | -368.853815665858 | -504.176226170114 | -0.774874926864072 |
| 97 | 6204.5 | 6392.88366133331 | -682.658251771912 | -188.383661333306 | -0.466261469787355 |
| 98 | 5576.5 | 5473.68987473691 | -847.346381425933 | 102.810125263094 | -0.244619313169586 |
| 99 | 4776.5 | 4434.63911240655 | -980.711519933395 | 341.860887593448 | -0.198130866033711 |
| 100 | 4279.5 | 3845.89282296226 | -708.06086702305 | 433.607177037739 | 0.40527924737016 |
| 101 | 3918 | 3832.96019382371 | -224.260427758203 | 85.0398061762868 | 0.719220779503521 |
| 102 | 3288.5 | 4150.45701220558 | 152.902366994604 | -861.957012205576 | 0.560446194635532 |
| 103 | 2393.5 | 4367.72641006507 | 197.697940525091 | -1974.22641006507 | 0.0665405302108675 |
| 104 | 8131.5 | 5756.95756938027 | 1026.53435779957 | 2374.54243061973 | 1.23121634440665 |
| 105 | 8121 | 7170.04027696865 | 1295.36363141051 | 950.959723031355 | 0.399425596939863 |
| 106 | 7790.5 | 7938.63037010766 | 928.994875091754 | -148.130370107664 | -0.544459541667031 |
| 107 | 7411.5 | 7912.32384191004 | 264.447934917164 | -500.82384191004 | -0.987700379586081 |
| 108 | 6861 | 7399.49485229179 | -276.393684463675 | -538.494852291792 | -0.803792907259258 |
| 109 | 6197 | 6434.89519508021 | -755.246596117707 | -237.895195080214 | -0.711459616116014 |
| 110 | 5622.5 | 5450.70136845376 | -914.461209630728 | 171.798631546236 | -0.23649572181471 |
| 111 | 4855.5 | 4572.14212539255 | -889.510884681236 | 283.357874607454 | 0.037067854123982 |
| 112 | 4303.5 | 3960.12144385645 | -696.683743604824 | 343.37855614355 | 0.286606698239224 |
| 113 | 3853.5 | 3742.38991308731 | -363.706755809204 | 111.110086912688 | 0.494974176451367 |
| 114 | 3283.5 | 4011.99189220258 | 76.7032536096454 | -728.491892202581 | 0.65444799613853 |
| 115 | 2861.5 | 5036.86845754502 | 735.892819771258 | -2175.36845754502 | 0.979221643993651 |
| 116 | 9486.5 | 7026.25027058016 | 1606.92869424222 | 2460.24972941984 | 1.29389861947987 |
| 117 | 9061 | 8166.95409560751 | 1283.04075571302 | 894.045904392494 | -0.481226536165337 |
| 118 | 8877.5 | 8893.9988825171 | 896.775715804177 | -16.4988825171034 | -0.574035507906367 |
| 119 | 8557.5 | 9020.24680957318 | 361.342303805422 | -462.746809573184 | -0.795806294056555 |
| 120 | 8031 | 8547.10900987456 | -218.672934087086 | -516.109009874563 | -0.861982901331574 |
| 121 | 7404.5 | 7685.09370812763 | -665.809113205428 | -280.593708127626 | -0.664317027981105 |
| 122 | 6852.5 | 6702.39001613454 | -885.946985850447 | 150.109983865458 | -0.326998232875611 |
| 123 | 6174.5 | 5877.36910638902 | -843.647072875306 | 297.130893610979 | 0.0628446720174994 |
| 124 | 5341.5 | 5052.56394060276 | -830.566310418471 | 288.93605939724 | 0.0194415268655483 |
| 125 | 4975.5 | 4845.23398685088 | -397.720184830635 | 130.266013149124 | 0.643398643264597 |
| 126 | 4290 | 5183.52502954804 | 113.583455297198 | -893.525029548039 | 0.759806199471076 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 3626.40319418091 | 6787.80241894047 | -3161.39922475956 |
| 2 | 9737.24088801274 | 6804.47491125124 | 2932.7659767615 |
| 3 | 9106.84859704933 | 6821.14740356202 | 2285.70119348731 |
| 4 | 8768.70208911564 | 6837.81989587279 | 1930.88219324284 |
| 5 | 8375.8048696853 | 6854.49238818357 | 1521.31248150173 |
| 6 | 7842.01643844101 | 6871.16488049434 | 970.851557946665 |
| 7 | 7238.70408098453 | 6887.83737280512 | 350.866708179418 |
| 8 | 6717.49708444803 | 6904.50986511589 | -187.01278066786 |
| 9 | 6100.50348663573 | 6921.18235742667 | -820.678870790941 |
| 10 | 5419.93754008612 | 6937.85484973744 | -1517.91730965132 |
| 11 | 5130.28534342812 | 6954.52734204822 | -1824.24199862009 |
| 12 | 4490.0699077293 | 6971.19983435899 | -2481.12992662969 |
