| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 5963 | 5963 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5957 | 5957.30180873667 | -0.497806497171495 | -0.301808736674092 | -0.166435545624309 |
| 3 | 5920 | 5920.27227174646 | -6.55198020886214 | -0.272271746462643 | -1.65185942241202 |
| 4 | 5923 | 5923.2783577892 | -4.52074184219617 | -0.278357789196162 | 0.419963224047122 |
| 5 | 5943 | 5943.29022174814 | 1.37964093284956 | -0.290221748136423 | 1.05875394550958 |
| 6 | 5953 | 5953.29332306289 | 3.59012123487147 | -0.293323062891534 | 0.368317029416611 |
| 7 | 5966 | 5966.29581110241 | 6.08428981263248 | -0.295811102412752 | 0.399709637883981 |
| 8 | 5995 | 5995.300236095 | 12.2644765431831 | -0.300236094998536 | 0.970332381038435 |
| 9 | 6027 | 6027.30300984108 | 17.63560048968 | -0.30300984107984 | 0.834261642597502 |
| 10 | 6035 | 6035.30202592557 | 15.0006724198711 | -0.302025925566599 | -0.406952278286264 |
| 11 | 6083 | 6083.30447180086 | 24.0472552217368 | -0.304471800859716 | 1.39304261490147 |
| 12 | 6124 | 6124.30538339803 | 28.7008882201107 | -0.305383398029584 | 0.71546945866304 |
| 13 | 6150 | 6148.44137688274 | 27.4903989748741 | 1.5586231172591 | -0.223302467993252 |
| 14 | 6220 | 6219.17742058162 | 38.7581323518901 | 0.82257941837804 | 1.52302967059176 |
| 15 | 6279 | 6278.20379979706 | 44.3390588511333 | 0.796200202937139 | 0.85357361654138 |
| 16 | 6346 | 6345.22517910281 | 50.5782990012766 | 0.774820897187567 | 0.955833516653742 |
| 17 | 6414 | 6413.23709334746 | 55.3715264631482 | 0.762906652535455 | 0.734945137149328 |
| 18 | 6439 | 6438.22203539284 | 47.0186164393929 | 0.777964607162225 | -1.28133454979537 |
| 19 | 6495 | 6494.22526388086 | 49.4882185608322 | 0.77473611913844 | 0.378927167224156 |
| 20 | 6568 | 6567.23139183459 | 55.9525454445965 | 0.768608165410962 | 0.991988762043756 |
| 21 | 6604 | 6603.22762122628 | 50.467099856725 | 0.772378773721615 | -0.841829435735743 |
| 22 | 6646 | 6645.22646101847 | 48.1393539239253 | 0.773538981525274 | -0.357242310523075 |
| 23 | 6691 | 6690.2261491066 | 47.2763068323551 | 0.773850893395341 | -0.132455426200384 |
| 24 | 6717 | 6716.22461632697 | 41.4272351279223 | 0.775383673029445 | -0.897689995763913 |
| 25 | 6719 | 6732.23440554506 | 34.545991442957 | -13.2344055450565 | -1.15723426552666 |
| 26 | 6746 | 6745.10747513204 | 28.7902369419467 | 0.892524867959833 | -0.821382960937928 |
| 27 | 6740 | 6739.07769949339 | 19.2061361496909 | 0.922300506612404 | -1.46728929604483 |
| 28 | 6748 | 6747.07074533547 | 16.1220975256851 | 0.929254664533269 | -0.472711601201926 |
| 29 | 6753 | 6752.06574183968 | 13.0627813770808 | 0.934258160317073 | -0.469212966321446 |
| 30 | 6782 | 6781.0709399164 | 17.4453752584425 | 0.929060083601388 | 0.672385596094608 |
| 31 | 6788 | 6787.06823329677 | 14.2984517506785 | 0.931766703234472 | -0.482889506864821 |
| 32 | 6794 | 6793.06681039876 | 12.0169524608088 | 0.933189601242975 | -0.350123321826799 |
| 33 | 6816 | 6815.06805155341 | 14.7614896116718 | 0.931948446588402 | 0.421201960661977 |
| 34 | 6842 | 6841.06906467372 | 17.8511136513628 | 0.930935326278058 | 0.474173981012483 |
| 35 | 6855 | 6854.0687475819 | 16.5174891854722 | 0.931252418100018 | -0.204678074925108 |
| 36 | 6860 | 6859.0682017063 | 13.351223128808 | 0.931798293696412 | -0.485946170208468 |
| 37 | 6873 | 6882.08163550269 | 15.9811091994557 | -9.08163550268513 | 0.429142325920329 |
| 38 | 6908 | 6907.07911350284 | 18.3977145404595 | 0.920886497159474 | 0.352415518222167 |
| 39 | 6962 | 6961.10170729764 | 28.2002199267939 | 0.898292702355945 | 1.50169397692397 |
| 40 | 6998 | 6997.10529087109 | 30.3461845742295 | 0.894709128911403 | 0.329038112602711 |
| 41 | 6996 | 6995.09451679903 | 21.4501661156778 | 0.905483200971549 | -1.36464191168685 |
| 42 | 7002 | 7001.09078561856 | 17.2018419136072 | 0.90921438143602 | -0.651846757872401 |
| 43 | 7019 | 7018.09075027598 | 17.146347467098 | 0.909249724021095 | -0.00851593810243785 |
| 44 | 6999 | 6998.08603414166 | 6.9338978319648 | 0.913965858337963 | -1.56726298277537 |
| 45 | 6979 | 6978.0835546811 | -0.470678467673145 | 0.916445318897177 | -1.13638997959289 |
| 46 | 6994 | 6993.08458734229 | 3.78240230882258 | 0.915412657705026 | 0.652737890742291 |
| 47 | 6973 | 6972.0833878879 | -3.03053093884536 | 0.916612112103988 | -1.04561917184504 |
| 48 | 6938 | 6937.08226595131 | -11.819223920601 | 0.917734048690023 | -1.34885700365636 |
| 49 | 6974 | 6979.24918578878 | 2.91276093854851 | -5.24918578877627 | 2.36773590341543 |
| 50 | 6986 | 6985.4948981627 | 3.81084740150491 | 0.505101837301601 | 0.132513122037213 |
| 51 | 7015 | 7014.50759024522 | 10.7440550046392 | 0.492409754776202 | 1.06253548337574 |
| 52 | 7031 | 7030.50950701861 | 12.1898880803507 | 0.490492981391625 | 0.221732056920394 |
| 53 | 7073 | 7072.51738873785 | 20.387699273509 | 0.4826112621483 | 1.25766946778724 |
| 54 | 7086 | 7085.51597251862 | 18.3564016300683 | 0.484027481380101 | -0.311691805431528 |
| 55 | 7083 | 7082.51300408576 | 12.4848124879625 | 0.486995914235094 | -0.901054850053788 |
| 56 | 7072 | 7071.51063723187 | 6.02833947687927 | 0.48936276812952 | -0.990863684879363 |
| 57 | 7102 | 7101.51238897946 | 12.618503070411 | 0.487611020538608 | 1.01140910953999 |
| 58 | 7163 | 7162.51495254128 | 25.9191275857069 | 0.485047458716114 | 2.04131044022152 |
| 59 | 7193 | 7192.51510932814 | 27.0409986295602 | 0.484890671856935 | 0.172180238552021 |
| 60 | 7242 | 7241.51572106118 | 33.0777185952061 | 0.484278938815826 | 0.926495158104556 |
| 61 | 7258 | 7264.07767044478 | 30.2037704130985 | -6.07767044478085 | -0.457695682093695 |
| 62 | 7287 | 7286.50135381934 | 28.1000672751254 | 0.498646180655591 | -0.312692541733992 |
| 63 | 7301 | 7300.4954806446 | 24.2199034244671 | 0.504519355402135 | -0.594795701015104 |
| 64 | 7315 | 7314.492390849 | 21.4088688868422 | 0.507609150995332 | -0.431155136179563 |
| 65 | 7333 | 7332.49164364324 | 20.4714808878268 | 0.508356356760267 | -0.14381957150029 |
| 66 | 7365 | 7364.49347584119 | 23.6412280626209 | 0.506524158812282 | 0.486398484880603 |
| 67 | 7375 | 7374.49190391246 | 19.8908583820645 | 0.508096087544428 | -0.575543217361663 |
| 68 | 7419 | 7418.49391832178 | 26.5189167851945 | 0.506081678222323 | 1.01720680667116 |
| 69 | 7436 | 7435.49334163062 | 23.9020375541494 | 0.506658369380009 | -0.401621207547385 |
| 70 | 7438 | 7437.49237950507 | 17.8809320352813 | 0.507620494933505 | -0.924090417349818 |
| 71 | 7455 | 7454.49235144543 | 17.6387556500072 | 0.507648554566397 | -0.037168308107762 |
| 72 | 7511 | 7510.49323742781 | 28.1845876969217 | 0.506762572190185 | 1.61853951796147 |
| 73 | 7559 | 7563.12599266475 | 34.8729309694991 | -4.12599266474624 | 1.05866550242389 |
| 74 | 7593 | 7592.65645210329 | 33.4248066652387 | 0.343547896707653 | -0.216335309397166 |
| 75 | 7609 | 7608.65026549888 | 28.6304314417974 | 0.349734501116333 | -0.735066461596924 |
| 76 | 7623 | 7622.64648812855 | 24.6065741484679 | 0.353511871453564 | -0.617234718369878 |
| 77 | 7664 | 7663.64955683879 | 29.114335964349 | 0.350443161214541 | 0.691641109715837 |
| 78 | 7692 | 7691.64940559595 | 28.8079577639567 | 0.350594404053314 | -0.0470150190524727 |
| 79 | 7740 | 7739.65129429276 | 34.0843474792273 | 0.348705707234849 | 0.809741870808278 |
| 80 | 7767 | 7766.65078878423 | 32.1367381836316 | 0.349211215765179 | -0.298901335948613 |
| 81 | 7743 | 7742.64788431946 | 16.7040365273866 | 0.3521156805368 | -2.36851718640179 |
| 82 | 7798 | 7797.64932101148 | 27.2319910915325 | 0.350678988519011 | 1.61578318269949 |
| 83 | 7842 | 7841.64977713731 | 31.8416682259033 | 0.350222862686806 | 0.707476398952219 |
| 84 | 7837 | 7836.64905047046 | 21.7135851913926 | 0.350949529540543 | -1.55442562152628 |
| 85 | 7830 | 7835.04137281708 | 15.3290074705236 | -5.04137281708463 | -1.0061664901535 |
| 86 | 7818 | 7817.7098872881 | 6.45998521477488 | 0.290112711898957 | -1.32981436283939 |
| 87 | 7830 | 7829.71162493799 | 7.98413828683488 | 0.288375062014675 | 0.233711686395214 |
| 88 | 7860 | 7859.71658489149 | 14.0388828051779 | 0.283415108510044 | 0.928824582540731 |
| 89 | 7913 | 7912.72294891966 | 24.7518392165381 | 0.277051080342402 | 1.64378496019902 |
| 90 | 7900 | 7899.71847782391 | 14.3724252427584 | 0.281522176086155 | -1.59279509649043 |
| 91 | 7934 | 7933.72016331428 | 19.7685084409506 | 0.279836685719135 | 0.828118989214519 |
| 92 | 7943 | 7942.719492807 | 16.8080729414296 | 0.280507192997326 | -0.454343083140173 |
| 93 | 7935 | 7934.71837277182 | 9.98803485912218 | 0.281627228177609 | -1.04670087891076 |
| 94 | 7930 | 7929.7178821179 | 5.86767486532404 | 0.282117882095229 | -0.632375271981801 |
| 95 | 7943 | 7942.71805141687 | 7.82841421101464 | 0.281948583127654 | 0.300927340204164 |
| 96 | 7906 | 7905.71727985724 | -4.49528796777803 | 0.282720142764177 | -1.89140295407617 |
| 97 | 7961 | 7961.44723112853 | 12.0010772909573 | -0.447231128529604 | 2.59117462423789 |
| 98 | 7949 | 7949.07061192076 | 5.3719742770576 | -0.0706119207633796 | -0.996741130547431 |
| 99 | 7886 | 7886.0517958352 | -13.4366525182671 | -0.0517958352017754 | -2.88438513376443 |
| 100 | 7877 | 7877.05268240961 | -12.216551006199 | -0.0526824096094369 | 0.187179008602377 |
| 101 | 7853 | 7853.05097516842 | -15.45651411704 | -0.0509751684169608 | -0.497150613526178 |
| 102 | 7833 | 7833.05049787125 | -16.7056753228143 | -0.0504978712526562 | -0.191695538269138 |
| 103 | 7829 | 7829.05146566382 | -13.212608419299 | -0.0514656638215196 | 0.536073570444198 |
| 104 | 7825 | 7825.05197447427 | -10.6799234911026 | -0.0519744742665251 | 0.388697067030046 |
| 105 | 7851 | 7851.05344337625 | -0.596188956603678 | -0.0534433762455451 | 1.54759789013274 |
| 106 | 7862 | 7862.05378009847 | 2.59171579506418 | -0.0537800984666657 | 0.489266574200323 |
| 107 | 7864 | 7864.05376764006 | 2.42904796403866 | -0.0537676400646912 | -0.0249656982691738 |
| 108 | 7893 | 7893.05417328801 | 9.73362072316717 | -0.0541732880120097 | 1.12108314707064 |
| 109 | 7867 | 7867.77777360772 | 0.140057846906165 | -0.777773607716558 | -1.50305642265142 |
| 110 | 7869 | 7868.92511535592 | 0.414277283456795 | 0.074884644083916 | 0.0413217828884323 |
| 111 | 7871 | 7870.92556120255 | 0.850482919047886 | 0.0744387974507671 | 0.0668994810538982 |
| 112 | 7891 | 7890.9289992996 | 6.11650611622212 | 0.0710007004025777 | 0.807909124891987 |
| 113 | 7876 | 7875.92625046784 | 0.310446436589625 | 0.0737495321604291 | -0.890920951056447 |
| 114 | 7904 | 7903.9288639582 | 7.92318550602895 | 0.0711360417954116 | 1.16826023215864 |
| 115 | 7930 | 7929.93010108032 | 12.8928696048277 | 0.0698989196828266 | 0.762691619107901 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 7942.11333328157 | 7941.17109475569 | 0.942238525877563 |
| 2 | 7952.76334940292 | 7957.13328600247 | -4.36993659954605 |
| 3 | 7974.73981765204 | 7973.09547724925 | 1.64434040279086 |
| 4 | 7993.82051697558 | 7989.05766849603 | 4.76284847955654 |
| 5 | 8005.78322555237 | 8005.0198597428 | 0.76336580956964 |
| 6 | 8021.47981113434 | 8020.98205098958 | 0.497760144755903 |
| 7 | 8039.30817161713 | 8036.94424223636 | 2.36392938077229 |
| 8 | 8047.03034044015 | 8052.90643348314 | -5.87609304298899 |
| 9 | 8066.44631596327 | 8068.86862472992 | -2.42230876664324 |
| 10 | 8086.35609892361 | 8084.8308159767 | 1.52528294691448 |
| 11 | 8099.2596899919 | 8100.79300722347 | -1.53331723157866 |
| 12 | 8118.45708842077 | 8116.75519847025 | 1.70188995051966 |
