| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.650440909511054 |
| beta | 0.0224686836546399 |
| gamma | 0.353261542070113 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 4228 | 3977.44951923077 | 250.550480769228 |
| 14 | 4461 | 4374.71366292967 | 86.2863370703271 |
| 15 | 4326 | 4309.81139034414 | 16.1886096558628 |
| 16 | 4305 | 4317.25961077976 | -12.2596107797626 |
| 17 | 4351 | 4369.23310946723 | -18.2331094672318 |
| 18 | 4357 | 4372.30473152668 | -15.3047315266822 |
| 19 | 4449 | 4390.26575195058 | 58.7342480494153 |
| 20 | 4519 | 4587.86812825467 | -68.8681282546686 |
| 21 | 4422 | 4612.92455541824 | -190.924555418241 |
| 22 | 4507 | 4473.21687909414 | 33.7831209058559 |
| 23 | 4549 | 4537.12032661024 | 11.8796733897643 |
| 24 | 4658 | 4541.82549189553 | 116.174508104472 |
| 25 | 4468 | 4682.67221166062 | -214.672211660615 |
| 26 | 4516 | 4754.16997660606 | -238.169976606056 |
| 27 | 4548 | 4461.94796701843 | 86.0520329815699 |
| 28 | 4656 | 4504.72228338667 | 151.277716613329 |
| 29 | 4640 | 4658.11655060325 | -18.1165506032548 |
| 30 | 4686 | 4657.41434654092 | 28.5856534590839 |
| 31 | 4734 | 4709.49641473715 | 24.5035852628462 |
| 32 | 4702 | 4865.00660689366 | -163.006606893658 |
| 33 | 4723 | 4808.31340995369 | -85.3134099536937 |
| 34 | 4609 | 4761.14533313447 | -152.145333134475 |
| 35 | 4731 | 4694.78886920474 | 36.2111307952564 |
| 36 | 4791 | 4721.93505814347 | 69.0649418565308 |
| 37 | 5111 | 4784.33235627703 | 326.667643722971 |
| 38 | 4841 | 5205.99694198822 | -364.996941988219 |
| 39 | 4875 | 4870.42364814933 | 4.5763518506692 |
| 40 | 4975 | 4866.17191614683 | 108.828083853175 |
| 41 | 4973 | 4968.33166264508 | 4.66833735492492 |
| 42 | 4966 | 4985.84397179498 | -19.8439717949832 |
| 43 | 4937 | 5002.84080758783 | -65.8408075878306 |
| 44 | 4861 | 5072.03157946791 | -211.031579467914 |
| 45 | 4980 | 4988.59222930346 | -8.59222930346459 |
| 46 | 4896 | 4979.09244855896 | -83.0924485589649 |
| 47 | 4924 | 4977.93782202059 | -53.9378220205936 |
| 48 | 4920 | 4946.21460706804 | -26.2146070680383 |
| 49 | 5088 | 4972.76617671927 | 115.233823280733 |
| 50 | 5193 | 5162.7225189641 | 30.2774810358978 |
| 51 | 5169 | 5126.89339245157 | 42.1066075484323 |
| 52 | 5102 | 5157.47943314131 | -55.4794331413104 |
| 53 | 5041 | 5135.05627261419 | -94.0562726141925 |
| 54 | 4925 | 5079.03599077504 | -154.035990775039 |
| 55 | 5091 | 4994.81659209188 | 96.1834079081218 |
| 56 | 4798 | 5145.58115672485 | -347.581156724848 |
| 57 | 5098 | 4990.44275717072 | 107.557242829277 |
| 58 | 5554 | 5041.10909927131 | 512.890900728691 |
| 59 | 5173 | 5433.73410795213 | -260.734107952131 |
| 60 | 5240 | 5270.43081829493 | -30.4308182949289 |
| 61 | 5101 | 5311.15051055702 | -210.150510557019 |
| 62 | 5162 | 5273.66097298585 | -111.660972985846 |
| 63 | 5207 | 5139.58393421768 | 67.4160657823249 |
| 64 | 5189 | 5167.56561554968 | 21.4343844503164 |
| 65 | 5258 | 5184.51454044962 | 73.4854595503766 |
| 66 | 5211 | 5226.62004317338 | -15.6200431733805 |
| 67 | 5149 | 5261.90989511984 | -112.909895119845 |
| 68 | 5259 | 5217.39651924893 | 41.6034807510669 |
| 69 | 5327 | 5372.81412238683 | -45.8141223868261 |
| 70 | 5248 | 5372.74421614616 | -124.744216146165 |
| 71 | 5421 | 5244.74463597751 | 176.255364022492 |
| 72 | 5476 | 5390.15382971183 | 85.8461702881668 |
| 73 | 5507 | 5482.04881284608 | 24.9511871539235 |
| 74 | 5324 | 5610.8138084648 | -286.813808464798 |
| 75 | 5123 | 5383.53660184857 | -260.536601848567 |
| 76 | 5447 | 5186.34642018586 | 260.653579814138 |
| 77 | 5290 | 5362.63699736694 | -72.636997366938 |
| 78 | 5326 | 5293.87583289839 | 32.1241671016051 |
| 79 | 5118 | 5344.08493840755 | -226.084938407552 |
| 80 | 5241 | 5239.26246684579 | 1.73753315420618 |
| 81 | 5178 | 5351.59654978412 | -173.596549784123 |
| 82 | 5324 | 5250.43925219963 | 73.5607478003703 |
| 83 | 5292 | 5283.26691151157 | 8.73308848843317 |
| 84 | 5371 | 5300.77266045428 | 70.2273395457196 |
| 85 | 5453 | 5366.98473680202 | 86.0152631979818 |
| 86 | 5509 | 5489.8580693131 | 19.1419306869002 |
| 87 | 5437 | 5462.19156758455 | -25.1915675845494 |
| 88 | 5342 | 5483.23817812857 | -141.238178128572 |
| 89 | 5390 | 5351.89097534983 | 38.1090246501744 |
| 90 | 5329 | 5364.64428062436 | -35.6442806243631 |
| 91 | 5258 | 5334.44266825716 | -76.4426682571566 |
| 92 | 5262 | 5352.82724851342 | -90.827248513423 |
| 93 | 5147 | 5379.69011252441 | -232.690112524407 |
| 94 | 5158 | 5266.14069928859 | -108.140699288595 |
| 95 | 5125 | 5165.64586727318 | -40.6458672731824 |
| 96 | 5026 | 5150.77439528371 | -124.774395283707 |
| 97 | 4917 | 5081.3962933882 | -164.396293388203 |
| 98 | 4855 | 5018.77149035395 | -163.771490353953 |
| 99 | 4668 | 4849.62055331594 | -181.620553315944 |
| 100 | 4884 | 4735.26759950075 | 148.73240049925 |
| 101 | 4923 | 4799.59209726415 | 123.40790273585 |
| 102 | 4981 | 4844.88254633233 | 136.117453667666 |
| 103 | 5148 | 4910.03674103994 | 237.963258960061 |
| 104 | 5052 | 5124.41537811694 | -72.4153781169407 |
| 105 | 5061 | 5139.27298091015 | -78.2729809101538 |
| 106 | 4995 | 5137.33655806159 | -142.33655806159 |
| 107 | 5058 | 5018.22792464148 | 39.772075358519 |
| 108 | 5009 | 5041.74409921489 | -32.7440992148895 |
| 109 | 5145 | 5025.14771113009 | 119.852288869908 |
| 110 | 5187 | 5149.45531962871 | 37.5446803712903 |
| 111 | 5327 | 5113.95504657472 | 213.044953425278 |
| 112 | 5418 | 5307.78093270996 | 110.219067290042 |
| 113 | 5482 | 5354.04306798351 | 127.956932016486 |
| 114 | 5583 | 5414.04382310314 | 168.956176896862 |
| 115 | 5735 | 5523.796081515 | 211.203918485004 |
| 116 | 5669 | 5692.7128296061 | -23.7128296060964 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 117 | 5749.50782746473 | 5467.65107745927 | 6031.36457747019 |
| 118 | 5802.69893276063 | 5464.20097265975 | 6141.19689286151 |
| 119 | 5812.866352027 | 5423.91934640772 | 6201.81335764628 |
| 120 | 5815.18387923471 | 5379.7830571563 | 6250.58470131313 |
| 121 | 5852.83307177892 | 5373.77450246697 | 6331.89164109087 |
| 122 | 5901.37243603027 | 5380.71571624856 | 6422.02915581198 |
| 123 | 5874.9270640208 | 5314.24289917025 | 6435.61122887134 |
| 124 | 5926.17241383747 | 5326.68847978101 | 6525.65634789393 |
| 125 | 5910.01328272682 | 5272.70635583327 | 6547.32020962037 |
| 126 | 5897.05775523408 | 5222.71506481776 | 6571.40044565041 |
| 127 | 5904.87109782888 | 5194.13291950598 | 6615.60927615179 |
| 128 | 5907.05674606967 | 5160.4469839652 | 6653.66650817414 |
