| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.147006839672561 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.176608877322796 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 5631.5 | 5579.1499732906 | 52.3500267094005 |
| 14 | 5515.5 | 5442.64743154432 | 72.8525684556816 |
| 15 | 6676.5 | 6607.42973699875 | 69.0702630012529 |
| 16 | 6592.5 | 6537.34351768164 | 55.1564823183562 |
| 17 | 7101 | 7057.98271077178 | 43.0172892282162 |
| 18 | 7793 | 7753.56652611623 | 39.4334738837661 |
| 19 | 7177 | 6763.56099609293 | 413.439003907073 |
| 20 | 7843 | 7547.89100372507 | 295.108996274926 |
| 21 | 7858.5 | 8075.84652423012 | -217.346524230123 |
| 22 | 7576.5 | 7579.7384115263 | -3.23841152629939 |
| 23 | 6229 | 6468.52232248599 | -239.522322485988 |
| 24 | 5739.5 | 5569.50838243002 | 169.991617569979 |
| 25 | 6559 | 5912.95712323404 | 646.042876765958 |
| 26 | 6126.5 | 5866.82012038549 | 259.679879614507 |
| 27 | 7486.5 | 7058.49752860857 | 428.002471391431 |
| 28 | 7627.5 | 7039.08074121129 | 588.419258788714 |
| 29 | 7602.5 | 7636.28448690729 | -33.7844869072942 |
| 30 | 7710 | 8320.03802782523 | -610.038027825231 |
| 31 | 8102 | 7290.89824344423 | 811.101756555772 |
| 32 | 7533.5 | 8115.86143381443 | -582.361433814427 |
| 33 | 7736.5 | 8437.62334089138 | -701.123340891381 |
| 34 | 8695 | 7902.65129321111 | 792.348706788887 |
| 35 | 6885 | 6872.79668722077 | 12.2033127792256 |
| 36 | 6079.5 | 6072.47984161135 | 7.02015838865191 |
| 37 | 6874 | 6463.68595950446 | 410.31404049554 |
| 38 | 5194 | 6324.6911018255 | -1130.6911018255 |
| 39 | 6980.5 | 7337.33161892929 | -356.831618929293 |
| 40 | 7280.5 | 7226.70502597496 | 53.7949740250415 |
| 41 | 7313.5 | 7651.58273738536 | -338.082737385357 |
| 42 | 7670.5 | 8203.79196851597 | -533.29196851597 |
| 43 | 7251 | 7400.02363737802 | -149.02363737802 |
| 44 | 7909.5 | 7873.92194302161 | 35.5780569783892 |
| 45 | 8434 | 8268.63415596979 | 165.365844030206 |
| 46 | 8333.5 | 8086.02778061106 | 247.472219388936 |
| 47 | 6898.5 | 6858.54669290692 | 39.9533070930829 |
| 48 | 6637 | 6061.52846393402 | 575.471536065979 |
| 49 | 6683 | 6597.05549883619 | 85.944501163809 |
| 50 | 5584 | 6178.22958626812 | -594.229586268121 |
| 51 | 6510.5 | 7386.31257827015 | -875.812578270154 |
| 52 | 7263 | 7261.25155586598 | 1.74844413402298 |
| 53 | 7114.5 | 7619.44319725964 | -504.943197259642 |
| 54 | 8114.5 | 8117.71527759068 | -3.21527759068158 |
| 55 | 7228.5 | 7449.7603957597 | -221.260395759699 |
| 56 | 8126 | 7940.84894104369 | 185.151058956312 |
| 57 | 8071 | 8377.10144061953 | -306.10144061953 |
| 58 | 8602.5 | 8137.55516025679 | 464.944839743206 |
| 59 | 7371.5 | 6910.78210700645 | 460.717892993553 |
| 60 | 6678 | 6256.29291721902 | 421.707082780978 |
| 61 | 6440.5 | 6695.47015560704 | -254.970155607042 |
| 62 | 6207.5 | 6124.06183934671 | 83.438160653287 |
| 63 | 7067.5 | 7389.34722746364 | -321.847227463644 |
| 64 | 7512 | 7477.92410263006 | 34.0758973699385 |
| 65 | 7474.5 | 7764.53694844432 | -290.036948444315 |
| 66 | 8992 | 8369.98510391484 | 622.014896085157 |
| 67 | 8265.5 | 7761.0956732635 | 504.404326736495 |
| 68 | 7841 | 8420.08622288856 | -579.086222888558 |
| 69 | 8758.5 | 8669.98531008278 | 88.5146899172196 |
| 70 | 9183.5 | 8604.60546467289 | 578.89453532711 |
| 71 | 7792 | 7393.94702273698 | 398.052977263016 |
| 72 | 7670.5 | 6724.36883280064 | 946.131167199363 |
| 73 | 6530.5 | 7138.70116798084 | -608.201167980843 |
| 74 | 6621.5 | 6566.34539176598 | 55.1546082340192 |
| 75 | 7870 | 7766.41821501603 | 103.58178498397 |
| 76 | 7250.5 | 7971.1545183882 | -720.654518388196 |
| 77 | 7779.5 | 8097.99047391934 | -318.490473919339 |
| 78 | 9027.5 | 8836.65287865317 | 190.847121346827 |
| 79 | 7891.5 | 8146.66125490251 | -255.161254902513 |
| 80 | 9021 | 8530.76677337186 | 490.233226628139 |
| 81 | 8559 | 9038.43465031038 | -479.434650310375 |
| 82 | 8738 | 8963.43621011421 | -225.436210114211 |
| 83 | 8051.5 | 7607.29256015132 | 444.207439848684 |
| 84 | 7354 | 7027.06526900686 | 326.934730993141 |
| 85 | 7182 | 7116.21728845139 | 65.7827115486098 |
| 86 | 6319.5 | 6742.87375568203 | -423.373755682031 |
| 87 | 7353.5 | 7879.89500488966 | -526.395004889658 |
| 88 | 7519.5 | 7867.85237364539 | -348.352373645394 |
| 89 | 7854.5 | 8110.00376164112 | -255.503761641119 |
| 90 | 8996.5 | 8934.65539900472 | 61.8446009952786 |
| 91 | 7684.5 | 8158.51007125093 | -474.010071250934 |
| 92 | 8708.5 | 8622.73413647739 | 85.7658635226144 |
| 93 | 8371 | 8924.86579820322 | -553.865798203218 |
| 94 | 8385.5 | 8877.18936096366 | -491.689360963661 |
| 95 | 7916 | 7582.78392412958 | 333.216075870417 |
| 96 | 6872 | 6968.57345955674 | -96.5734595567401 |
| 97 | 7492 | 6956.12532827599 | 535.874671724014 |
| 98 | 6515 | 6578.19898334312 | -63.198983343118 |
| 99 | 7875 | 7752.64863151627 | 122.351368483727 |
| 100 | 7487 | 7862.79759386898 | -375.797593868981 |
| 101 | 8195.5 | 8114.9016340447 | 80.5983659552967 |
| 102 | 8533 | 9036.76989660627 | -503.769896606273 |
| 103 | 8688 | 8096.75091803232 | 591.249081967678 |
| 104 | 8892.5 | 8801.90346230806 | 90.5965376919376 |
| 105 | 8221.5 | 9008.38720970317 | -786.887209703173 |
| 106 | 8652.5 | 8935.82167296975 | -283.321672969752 |
| 107 | 7410.5 | 7796.3165514971 | -385.816551497095 |
| 108 | 6457 | 7011.65722773807 | -554.657227738074 |
| 109 | 6400.5 | 7027.14353455706 | -626.643534557056 |
| 110 | 6260.5 | 6388.07091372238 | -127.570913722378 |
| 111 | 7220 | 7581.0098966544 | -361.009896654396 |
| 112 | 7617 | 7545.05721651603 | 71.9427834839671 |
| 113 | 7922 | 7931.73645535971 | -9.73645535971082 |
| 114 | 8934 | 8752.29204396986 | 181.707956030143 |
| 115 | 8395 | 8078.00340725524 | 316.996592744758 |
| 116 | 8945 | 8667.41757432101 | 277.582425678987 |
| 117 | 9738 | 8769.19996529576 | 968.800034704238 |
| 118 | 9224 | 9030.59267845378 | 193.407321546221 |
| 119 | 6923 | 7945.72951952343 | -1022.72951952343 |
| 120 | 6572.5 | 7042.00443291639 | -469.504432916388 |
| 121 | 6962.5 | 7059.16432197911 | -96.6643219791113 |
| 122 | 7038 | 6573.18564636819 | 464.814353631813 |
| 123 | 8564 | 7818.04262792018 | 745.957372079823 |
| 124 | 8534 | 8010.04436821303 | 523.955631786966 |
| 125 | 8420.5 | 8450.86792333344 | -30.3679233334424 |
| 126 | 8831 | 9297.23091131247 | -466.230911312472 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 8548.07154361804 | 7701.82954606361 | 9394.31354117247 |
| 128 | 9084.94745030558 | 8229.61025666971 | 9940.28464394146 |
| 129 | 9250.05260770455 | 8385.71591913413 | 10114.389296275 |
| 130 | 9252.21515133773 | 8378.97171013657 | 10125.4585925389 |
| 131 | 7955.71344279317 | 7073.6531818173 | 8837.77370376905 |
| 132 | 7285.67782804354 | 6394.88800974475 | 8176.46764634234 |
| 133 | 7428.02501265226 | 6528.59035867411 | 8327.4596666304 |
| 134 | 7040.84126240306 | 6132.84407453915 | 7948.83845026696 |
| 135 | 8259.72047217288 | 7343.24074541361 | 9176.20019893215 |
| 136 | 8308.61766599849 | 7383.73319431961 | 9233.50213767737 |
| 137 | 8588.90944214056 | 7655.69591762182 | 9522.1229666593 |
| 138 | 9374.07563520917 | 8432.60674101422 | 10315.5445294041 |
