| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.439017108194885 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.730635320707144 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 5365 | 5257.31303418804 | 107.686965811962 |
| 14 | 5085 | 5031.71940788904 | 53.2805921109593 |
| 15 | 5105 | 5080.15711940712 | 24.8428805928752 |
| 16 | 5200 | 5191.11018905086 | 8.88981094914107 |
| 17 | 5205 | 5207.35125485944 | -2.35125485943718 |
| 18 | 5160 | 5173.24063379704 | -13.2406337970378 |
| 19 | 5140 | 5247.05772241675 | -107.057722416746 |
| 20 | 5150 | 5182.60417075804 | -32.6041707580362 |
| 21 | 5210 | 5165.21200204337 | 44.7879979566287 |
| 22 | 5205 | 5221.79631943475 | -16.7963194347494 |
| 23 | 5200 | 5208.21906789481 | -8.21906789480727 |
| 24 | 5095 | 5202.99070985552 | -107.990709855523 |
| 25 | 5140 | 5430.59897236164 | -290.598972361639 |
| 26 | 5165 | 5007.85125185765 | 157.148748142351 |
| 27 | 5190 | 5090.23298471476 | 99.7670152852434 |
| 28 | 5050 | 5227.54028419295 | -177.540284192952 |
| 29 | 5055 | 5157.32792909928 | -102.327929099282 |
| 30 | 4985 | 5074.86256524738 | -89.8625652473811 |
| 31 | 4995 | 5076.58813768487 | -81.5881376848702 |
| 32 | 5010 | 5053.83273817094 | -43.8327381709405 |
| 33 | 5010 | 5063.23206744796 | -53.2320674479606 |
| 34 | 5020 | 5051.54209390452 | -31.5420939045171 |
| 35 | 5170 | 5035.00678676794 | 134.993213232061 |
| 36 | 5155 | 5051.75727674404 | 103.242723255961 |
| 37 | 5155 | 5297.25426673219 | -142.254266732192 |
| 38 | 5150 | 5123.15252107417 | 26.8474789258253 |
| 39 | 5130 | 5124.81049202635 | 5.18950797365051 |
| 40 | 5170 | 5106.93561923103 | 63.0643807689703 |
| 41 | 5180 | 5173.18041081066 | 6.81958918933742 |
| 42 | 5175 | 5143.74190228917 | 31.25809771083 |
| 43 | 5185 | 5202.03298994119 | -17.0329899411909 |
| 44 | 5200 | 5223.09335812241 | -23.0933581224126 |
| 45 | 5205 | 5237.74509016433 | -32.7450901643324 |
| 46 | 5210 | 5243.93940451751 | -33.939404517514 |
| 47 | 5195 | 5294.61011534084 | -99.6101153408372 |
| 48 | 5195 | 5195.35203280222 | -0.35203280222413 |
| 49 | 5210 | 5294.74634013838 | -84.7463401383784 |
| 50 | 5205 | 5215.20195264908 | -10.2019526490812 |
| 51 | 5235 | 5191.71755194444 | 43.2824480555619 |
| 52 | 5235 | 5214.28753224304 | 20.7124677569591 |
| 53 | 5205 | 5238.88583651885 | -33.8858365188471 |
| 54 | 5195 | 5201.59365688116 | -6.59365688116395 |
| 55 | 5200 | 5223.47391953341 | -23.4739195334123 |
| 56 | 5165 | 5239.2226225978 | -74.2226225977956 |
| 57 | 5170 | 5227.47173960642 | -57.4717396064198 |
| 58 | 5255 | 5222.32111352643 | 32.678886473569 |
| 59 | 5240 | 5275.32168246327 | -35.3216824632709 |
| 60 | 5265 | 5244.97062070892 | 20.0293792910807 |
| 61 | 5275 | 5318.72169148612 | -43.7216914861156 |
| 62 | 5285 | 5287.74162655923 | -2.74162655922555 |
| 63 | 5320 | 5289.45429735247 | 30.545702647526 |
| 64 | 5335 | 5297.18178232629 | 37.8182176737082 |
| 65 | 5335 | 5306.91138273461 | 28.0886172653936 |
| 66 | 5325 | 5308.013401098 | 16.9865989020009 |
| 67 | 5355 | 5333.32702011406 | 21.6729798859387 |
| 68 | 5375 | 5348.09541479601 | 26.9045852039899 |
| 69 | 5445 | 5387.60685612607 | 57.3931438739282 |
| 70 | 5415 | 5469.83426908176 | -54.8342690817562 |
| 71 | 5415 | 5456.54340612088 | -41.5434061208807 |
| 72 | 5450 | 5446.14785762265 | 3.85214237734726 |
| 73 | 5535 | 5486.66694366235 | 48.333056337653 |
| 74 | 5570 | 5512.89714757187 | 57.102852428131 |
| 75 | 5590 | 5554.52617641561 | 35.473823584387 |
| 76 | 5575 | 5567.39800499812 | 7.60199500188173 |
| 77 | 5575 | 5559.8742572971 | 15.1257427029004 |
| 78 | 5595 | 5550.73492422444 | 44.2650757755582 |
| 79 | 5650 | 5589.94508659487 | 60.0549134051325 |
| 80 | 5680 | 5623.70810529113 | 56.2918947088729 |
| 81 | 5665 | 5688.61754316439 | -23.6175431643942 |
| 82 | 5675 | 5689.28078943784 | -14.2807894378429 |
| 83 | 5700 | 5699.24117587385 | 0.758824126152831 |
| 84 | 5700 | 5726.02348135837 | -26.0234813583693 |
| 85 | 5710 | 5771.65822381068 | -61.6582238106812 |
| 86 | 5745 | 5753.19488464076 | -8.19488464075675 |
| 87 | 5745 | 5757.2919150536 | -12.2919150536027 |
| 88 | 5765 | 5737.76983168733 | 27.2301683126743 |
| 89 | 5740 | 5741.94697579854 | -1.94697579853982 |
| 90 | 5725 | 5737.25587974924 | -12.2558797492356 |
| 91 | 5765 | 5758.12421824023 | 6.87578175976705 |
| 92 | 5900 | 5766.99832513973 | 133.00167486027 |
| 93 | 5900 | 5832.83187471355 | 67.168125286451 |
| 94 | 5900 | 5877.17847441973 | 22.8215255802706 |
| 95 | 5890 | 5909.59175719487 | -19.5917571948657 |
| 96 | 5935 | 5916.46244091433 | 18.5375590856656 |
| 97 | 5945 | 5967.05449107927 | -22.0544910792723 |
| 98 | 6000 | 5987.89109626485 | 12.1089037351476 |
| 99 | 6000 | 5999.22257124043 | 0.777428759565737 |
| 100 | 5995 | 6001.63722444189 | -6.63722444189079 |
| 101 | 6065 | 5978.98705343661 | 86.0129465633909 |
| 102 | 6065 | 6008.68651731738 | 56.3134826826172 |
| 103 | 6065 | 6067.49954801838 | -2.49954801837703 |
| 104 | 6075 | 6123.9534383465 | -48.9534383465043 |
| 105 | 6070 | 6082.92212559255 | -12.9221255925495 |
| 106 | 6085 | 6073.93122052182 | 11.0687794781752 |
| 107 | 6095 | 6083.80074842806 | 11.1992515719439 |
| 108 | 6095 | 6119.8174239174 | -24.8174239173959 |
| 109 | 6065 | 6134.73827229686 | -69.7382722968632 |
| 110 | 6115 | 6148.64356612901 | -33.6435661290052 |
| 111 | 6190 | 6135.24444808035 | 54.7555519196512 |
| 112 | 6200 | 6158.3173478808 | 41.6826521191988 |
| 113 | 6205 | 6194.8553176731 | 10.144682326898 |
| 114 | 6210 | 6179.07428004885 | 30.9257199511458 |
| 115 | 6230 | 6202.63572142167 | 27.3642785783286 |
| 116 | 6235 | 6253.16010464312 | -18.160104643116 |
| 117 | 6235 | 6240.41588742671 | -5.41588742670683 |
| 118 | 6235 | 6244.55359551627 | -9.55359551626862 |
| 119 | 6225 | 6245.42302509621 | -20.4230250962082 |
| 120 | 6225 | 6252.79468433771 | -27.7946843377067 |
| 121 | 6255 | 6247.99658046376 | 7.00341953623956 |
| 122 | 6310 | 6310.3870684526 | -0.387068452603671 |
| 123 | 6305 | 6347.82061444545 | -42.820614445448 |
| 124 | 6320 | 6322.69766723708 | -2.69766723708472 |
| 125 | 6320 | 6326.82532641284 | -6.82532641284433 |
| 126 | 6330 | 6312.1117698758 | 17.8882301241993 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 6328.48978824792 | 6211.21475425381 | 6445.76482224203 |
| 128 | 6348.34152783816 | 6220.26258472452 | 6476.4204709518 |
| 129 | 6348.79342945162 | 6210.7535883191 | 6486.83327058415 |
| 130 | 6353.6128661635 | 6206.28405088733 | 6500.94168143967 |
| 131 | 6354.2213919634 | 6198.15550241201 | 6510.28728151478 |
| 132 | 6367.53765778939 | 6203.19854512216 | 6531.87677045661 |
| 133 | 6389.20473092823 | 6216.98938311324 | 6561.42007874322 |
| 134 | 6445.49142967857 | 6265.744640851 | 6625.23821850614 |
| 135 | 6465.70250171796 | 6278.72739598297 | 6652.67760745295 |
| 136 | 6475.82388629081 | 6281.8896906589 | 6669.75808192273 |
| 137 | 6479.44404770945 | 6278.79197494123 | 6680.09612047767 |
| 138 | 6477.85636840968 | 6270.70416258757 | 6685.0085742318 |
