Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 5555.38 | 5576.5 | -21.1199999999999 |
4 | 5352.26 | 5497.43 | -145.17 |
5 | 5233.07 | 5294.31 | -61.2400000000007 |
6 | 4880.16 | 5175.12 | -294.96 |
7 | 4861.88 | 4822.21 | 39.6700000000001 |
8 | 4661.93 | 4803.93 | -142 |
9 | 4330.68 | 4603.98 | -273.3 |
10 | 3681.56 | 4272.73 | -591.170000000001 |
11 | 3540.08 | 3623.61 | -83.5300000000002 |
12 | 3328.03 | 3482.13 | -154.1 |
13 | 3254.92 | 3270.08 | -15.1600000000003 |
14 | 3217.27 | 3196.97 | 20.2999999999997 |
15 | 3301.29 | 3159.32 | 141.97 |
16 | 4272.3 | 3243.34 | 1028.96 |
17 | 4424.8 | 4214.35 | 210.45 |
18 | 4449.8 | 4366.85 | 82.9499999999998 |
19 | 4678 | 4391.85 | 286.15 |
20 | 4722.2 | 4620.05 | 102.15 |
21 | 4708.9 | 4664.25 | 44.6499999999996 |
22 | 4121.4 | 4650.95 | -529.55 |
23 | 4230.6 | 4063.45 | 167.150000000001 |
24 | 4263 | 4172.65 | 90.3499999999995 |
25 | 4241.9 | 4205.05 | 36.8499999999995 |
26 | 4309.8 | 4183.95 | 125.85 |
27 | 4457.9 | 4251.85 | 206.049999999999 |
28 | 4543.9 | 4399.95 | 143.95 |
29 | 4937 | 4485.95 | 451.05 |
30 | 4917.9 | 4879.05 | 38.8499999999995 |
31 | 5041.1 | 4859.95 | 181.150000000001 |
32 | 5017.2 | 4983.15 | 34.0499999999993 |
33 | 4833.9 | 4959.25 | -125.35 |
34 | 4815.4 | 4775.95 | 39.4499999999998 |
35 | 4785.9 | 4757.45 | 28.4499999999998 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
36 | 4727.95 | 4187.45194572795 | 5268.44805427204 |
37 | 4670 | 3905.6203212122 | 5434.3796787878 |
38 | 4612.05 | 3675.8799086087 | 5548.2200913913 |
39 | 4554.1 | 3473.10389145591 | 5635.09610854409 |
40 | 4496.15 | 3287.55960894134 | 5704.74039105866 |
41 | 4438.2 | 3114.25556006636 | 5762.14443993364 |
42 | 4380.25 | 2950.22656428188 | 5810.27343571812 |
43 | 4322.3 | 2793.54064242441 | 5851.05935757559 |
44 | 4264.35 | 2642.85583718387 | 5885.84416281614 |
45 | 4206.4 | 2497.19507761104 | 5915.60492238897 |
46 | 4148.45 | 2355.82075406248 | 5941.07924593752 |
47 | 4090.5 | 2218.1598172174 | 5962.84018278261 |
48 | 4032.55 | 2083.75655103363 | 5981.34344896638 |
49 | 3974.6 | 1952.24146269606 | 5996.95853730394 |
50 | 3916.65 | 1823.31003714686 | 6009.98996285315 |
51 | 3858.7 | 1696.70778291182 | 6020.69221708818 |
52 | 3800.75 | 1572.21943179553 | 6029.28056820447 |
53 | 3742.8 | 1449.66096363662 | 6035.93903636339 |